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Open This With?


rogerclee

Open With  

35 members have voted

  1. 1. Open With

    • 1S
      28
    • 4S
      7


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You are playing a 24-board KO against a pretty good team.

 

IMPs, All Red, First Seat

 

KQJ9xxx KJxxx void x

 

Your call.

How good is "pretty good"?

 

If "pretty good" means "they are good, but we are even better", I would open 1, which I consider the technically better bid. I will try to play the percentages and expect some IMPs coming in here and there.

 

If, on the other hand the opponents are better, I expect to loose some IMPs here and there. It may be great to loose a 24 board match against Nickel with a score of 8-11, which may be the best you can hope for if you play your absolute best bridge.

 

But this is a board where you can create a large swing in IMPs by going only slightly against the odds. Okay, 2 times out of 5, you will loose the board if you open 4: you will loose the match which you were destined to do anyway. 2 times out of 5, nothing special will happen: you will also loose the match, it's destiny. But 1 time out of 5, you might just win 12 IMPs. If there is another board like this, you are given a 0.2x 0.2 =0.04 (4%) chance to actually beat these guys and defy destiny (unless they can overcome a 24 IMP margin on the other 22 "boring" boards).

 

Let me think: Go for a 0% chance to win and a 50% chance to keep the margin small (and a 50% chance to loose big) or go for a 4% chance to win, a 16% chance to keep the margin small and an 80 % chance to loose big. I would grab the 4% chance that I am given to actually beat these guys. And I would do it again at the next opportunity.. and the next.. and the next, untill I once succeed. (After that I will be so arrogant that I will play technical bridge, since "I rate to beat them anyway". :) )

 

Rik

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1 happily. An interesting alternative not listed is pass, the bidding will not die, then come in with a two suited call... not that I would do that, but i think it is a way to get to 4M with both suits in play. OF course, with these spades, you can afford to play in spades even with a 5-3 heart fit (in fact, might play a lot better in spades)
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It has always been my style to open these hands 4, regardless of the forum majority, but maybe I should reconsider. Maybe I've seen a weird sample, but I have never seen one of these hands in real life or in a big tournament where we are somehow able to bid 6M by starting low.

 

This hand is no exception, but isn't really a strong case. I opened this 4 in first and it got swished out for +650.

 

At the other table, the player in my seat (actually a pretty good player) opened 1 and it got competitive quickly. He failed to pull a double of 5, which made, but 6 is a good sacrifice which is impossible to find after opening 4.

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Guest Jlall
Late to the party but I would open 4S all day. Just a big believer in preempting with this type of hand, and I am not really worried about missing hearts when my spades are so good. With KJxxxxx KQJxx I would open 1S to get hearts into play.
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You are playing a 24-board KO against a pretty good team.

IMPs, All Red, First Seat KQJ9xxx KJxxx void x

Your call.

IMO 4 = 10, 1 = 7. _P = 4.

However you treat this hand, you hope to end up in 4, so you might as well save time and give problems to opponents rather than to partner. It is easier for opponents to cope with stereotypical pre-empts. Terence Reese railed against "The pre-empt that is known to be weak".

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