Play 6H

[Poky]

♠xxx

♥Jxx

♦xxx

♣AKQ9

 

Lead: ♦K

 

♠AQTx

♥AKQT9

♦Ax

♣Tx

[awm]

One possibility is: win the ♦A, ♥AK, run three clubs pitching diamond. If both opps follow, spade to ten. If this loses to jack, we have heart jack to re-enter dummy and play spade to queen.

 

Odds are something like: (clubs 4-3 or 5-2 with long trumps/clubs together AND spades 3-3 with one honor onside OR both spade honors onside) = (70/128 + 42/128*1/3)*(16/64 + 42/64*1/4) = (84/128)*(26.5/64) = 1113/4096 = 27.17%

 

The alternative plan of pulling trumps before playing clubs seems to require a correct spade guess and either the club jack falling in three rounds or spades 3-3. Those odds are something like:

 

(1/2)*(45/128 + (83/128 * 20/64)) = 1135/4096 = 27.7%

 

Actually you also pick up the case where the club jack falls and RHO has Hx spades and you guess wrong:

 

(1/2)*(45/128)*(4/32) = 90/4096 for a total of 1225/4096 = 29.9%

 

You can improve things a bit more by starting along the first line, then changing tacks if the club jack falls doubleton. This gives you an additional chance if clubs are 5-2 with the jack doubleton and trumps are 3-2 with the three trumps together with the doubleton club. Odds of this approximately:

 

(12/128 * 20/32 * 2/3)*(1/2) = 80/4096

 

but you lose the cases where the trumps were 3-2 the other way and you misplay the spades:

 

(12/128 * 20/32 * 1/3)*(16/64)*(1/2) = 10/4096

 

bringing up the first line to 1183/4096 = 28.88%

 

Anyways it seems like the winner is to pull trump and run the clubs, pitching a diamond and a spade if the fourth club sets up, then try to guess the spades.

[benlessard]

Im pretty sure you need to play S twice from dummy so you have to do a partial pulling of the trumps.

 

If we compare

 

A= 2 round of trumps (keeping the J), 3 round of clubs if the J♣ doesnt fall low S to the T.

 

B= 3 round of trumps 3 round of clubs (if the J doesnt fall) & low S to the T.

 

A & B are equivalent when the J♣ is stiff or doubleton or tripleton. Only when the J♣ is 4th or 5th we have a difference.

 

A will fail compared to B when the clubs are 5-2 (short club with 3 trumps & the J doesnt fall) & when the S are Kxx ---Jxx with the J of S in RHO.

 

A will win compared to B when clubs are 4-3 (and the J doesnt fall) and the S are xx--KJxx or x---KJxxx (and trumps 3-2) or when Jxx--Kxx.

 

Its easy to see A is a better line then B

[Poky]

bringing up the first line to 1183/4096 = 28.88%

 

Anyways it seems like the winner is to pull trump and run the clubs, pitching a diamond and a spade if the fourth club sets up, then try to guess the spades.

Let's think about this line:

♦A

♥AKJ

♠ to Q

 

If this holds (cca. 50%)

- Duck diamond

- Take return

- Ruff a diamond

- Last trump

 

Now we make slam

- if ♣J falls

- if ♣/♠ squeeze operates

 

It seems a line far better than 29%. Can you calculate the exact odds?

[benlessard]

They will return S after the diamond duck. So many squeeze position wont work. + you will go down if the S finesse lose.

 

Ill try to calculate the odds later this week.

[Yogeshdg]

You dont need maths here just a lot of experience. I dont even know the odds and i can tell you the correct play.

[rogerclee]

You dont need maths here just a lot of experience. I dont even know the odds and i can tell you the correct play.

lol

 

http://forums.bridgebase.com/index.php?showtopic=24601

[bid_em_up]

One possibility is: win the ♦A, ♥AK, run three clubs pitching diamond. If both opps follow, spade to ten. If this loses to jack, we have heart jack to re-enter dummy and play spade to queen.

 

Odds are something like: (clubs 4-3 or 5-2 with long trumps/clubs together AND spades 3-3 with one honor onside OR both spade honors onside) = (70/128 + 42/128*1/3)*(16/64 + 42/64*1/4) = (84/128)*(26.5/64) = 1113/4096 = 27.17%

 

The alternative plan of pulling trumps before playing clubs seems to require a correct spade guess and either the club jack falling in three rounds or spades 3-3. Those odds are something like:

 

(1/2)*(45/128 + (83/128 * 20/64)) = 1135/4096 = 27.7%

 

Actually you also pick up the case where the club jack falls and RHO has Hx spades and you guess wrong:

 

(1/2)*(45/128)*(4/32) = 90/4096 for a total of 1225/4096 = 29.9%

 

You can improve things a bit more by starting along the first line, then changing tacks if the club jack falls doubleton. This gives you an additional chance if clubs are 5-2 with the jack doubleton and trumps are 3-2 with the three trumps together with the doubleton club. Odds of this approximately:

 

(12/128 * 20/32 * 2/3)*(1/2) = 80/4096

 

but you lose the cases where the trumps were 3-2 the other way and you misplay the spades:

 

(12/128 * 20/32 * 1/3)*(16/64)*(1/2) = 10/4096

 

bringing up the first line to 1183/4096 = 28.88%

 

Anyways it seems like the winner is to pull trump and run the clubs, pitching a diamond and a spade if the fourth club sets up, then try to guess the spades.

Adam,

 

I will take it for granted your percentages are correct.

 

Isnt there a better line though?

 

Play a club to the 9. 50% of the time it wins, 50% it loses. Assuming it wins, now all you need is one of two spade finesses. (Of course, if it loses, you are immediately down).

 

Surely this is better than the 27%-30% in all your listed lines. No?

[awm]

The bid_em_up line is only 25%. The problem is that you have to pull trumps sometime, preferably before you cash four rounds of clubs. So suppose you pull trumps, then play club to the nine. If this wins, you pitch your diamond and a spade on the clubs but now you're out of entries and you have to guess the spades. So you need two finesses. There isn't a way to time it so you can hook both spade honors while also having pitched the diamond loser before the first try at a spade hook.

 

The Poky line requires spade finesse on. Once this works out, you need either the club jack falling or a spade-club squeeze. This requires:

 

(1) Club jack falls is 44/128, times spade hook on for 44/256.

 

(2) The spade positions where a squeeze might operate require RHO to have ♠Kx (squeeze LHO) or ♠Kxxx (squeeze RHO) or ♠K+J (squeeze RHO). These come to a total of 1/2. You additionally need the long clubs to be with the long spades which is somewhat less than 1/2. So this gives you club jack not falling with the right spade position and the clubs with the spades for (84/128)(1/4) = 42/256.

 

This sums to 86/256 = 33.6% which seems better, but that was under the assumption that spades and clubs together is 50%, which it really isn't. Nonetheless this probably works out slightly better than the other possible lines.