Freak matchpoint hand

[awm]

If we overcall 4♥ and then double 5♦, it's ridiculous to convert with the actual north hand - 5♥ is plainly obvious!

These types of decisions are actually very difficult at matchpoints, much more so than at IMPs. Somehow I suspect that if both 5♥ and 5♦ were failing, we'd be blaming partner for pulling when "obviously" he should sit with 4333 shape and a "wasted" diamond honor?

 

Anyways, I generated some hands under the conditions that partner has the partner hand given, opener has a 1♦ opening, 4♥ bidder has 7+♥ and 13+ hcp, and responder has a reasonable 5♦ bid (either six diamonds or five diamonds with a heart void, 5+ hcp, not five spades and if four spades then six diamonds). My results from the first twenty hands:

 

5♥ makes, but 5♦ goes for 500 or more: 4

5♥ and 5♦ both fail: 8

5♦ makes, 5♥ fails but is a good sacrifice: 5

5♦ fails by only one trick and 5♥ makes: 1

5♦ and 5♥ both make: 2

 

Now obviously such a simulation is not conclusive and you can question my criteria for bidding 5♦ or for doubling 5♦. But since at MP we are playing the percentages and they came up 60-40 in favor of passing the double, I don't think it is realistic to say that bidding 5♥ is "plainly obvious" (although the sample size is small enough that it could still be the percentage action).

[jdonn]

I don't think it is realistic to say that bidding 5♥ is "plainly obvious" (although the sample size is small enough that it could still be the percentage action).

It is obvious. Sorry but 7+♥ and 13+ points is not accurate enough for a sim, it will clearly include hands that are defensive, have bad hearts, are obvious 1♥ overcalls, etc. Also most 13 point hands that bid 4♥ will not double back in, I know this hand has 13 but it's clearly exceptional and the double is debatable anyway.

[Al_U_Card]

What I like about hands like this is:

 

 

You have viable options for many different approaches.

 

There are aspects of the psychology of the game that make a huge difference.

(as far as your opps and their propensities as well)

 

Guessing right (especially at the 5 level...which as we all know is for the opps) means making the opps take the last guess.

 

When you can hide your hand from the opps (and not make a big diff to pard or keep him from that excruciating decision later) and actually help your side.

 

That is why I voted for 5♥ initially. Make them guess at the 5 level before they know their full assets. LHO may pass it around and they get to double you....but they will just as often feel they are being done out of a slam and bid on.....and that is the whole point. On hands like this, when you have an option that really puts the screws to the opps with much less tension for your side....JUST DO IT!

[han]

Sorry but 7+♥ and 13+ points is not accurate enough for a sim

Agree that this is obvious.

[awm]

It is obvious. Sorry but 7+♥ and 13+ points is not accurate enough for a sim, it will clearly include hands that are defensive, have bad hearts, are obvious 1♥ overcalls, etc. Also most 13 point hands that bid 4♥ will not double back in, I know this hand has 13 but it's clearly exceptional and the double is debatable anyway.

Perhaps we have different definitions of double. My impression was that this showed a fairly defensive hand in context, and suggests that we are beating 5♦. Of course, 5♥ making is better than 5♦X-1 and it is possible that 5♦ will make if (for example) overcaller's ♥A is not cashing, but my impression was that double was fairly penalty-oriented. Perhaps you're interpreting double as "I want to bid 5♥ but am doubling in case you have a misfit with defense"?

 

Let me know what you think are good criteria for a 4♥ call followed by a double and I'll run that simulation too. I just don't agree that it's "obvious" to pull this double with 4333 shape and the purely defensive diamond king. This hand is worth basically one trick on offense (the ♥K will shore up the suit) and one trick on defense (the ♦K is very often a trick, ♣J will compensate for some of the times when ♦K doesn't cash). I don't think bidding 4♥ and then doubling says "I have ten tricks in my hand" and I do think it suggests about 2.5 defensive tricks. So that would suggest that both five-level contracts failing is a typical scenario.

[jdonn]

I think you are off on the type of message double is sending, let alone the particular message. Double doesn't say "I want to bid 5" OR "I want to defend". It says "I have a good hand for my very wide ranging 4♥ bid, as opposed to a bad or moderate hand" and it's totally normal for responder to pull with Kxx of hearts.

 

I agree it's a very difficult sim to run, especially given people will often not agree on these auctions. But 7+♥ 13+ points is not even close. I think you have to vary the strength with the shape (more shape, less strength) but all things considered I think 16+ points, and some reasonable minimum suit quality (that should also vary with the shape theoretically.) The suit quality constraint is key, if you allow bad suits then obviously the hand will have more outside defense and bidding will be much worse than defending.

[skjaeran]

I think you are off on the type of message double is sending, let alone the particular message. Double doesn't say "I want to bid 5" OR "I want to defend". It says "I have a good hand for my very wide ranging 4♥ bid, as opposed to a bad or moderate hand" and it's totally normal for responder to pull with Kxx of hearts.

We're absolutely on the same page here.