Detroit Hand 2

[Guest Jlall]

You hold:

 

AKTxx T9x AKx AK

 

Partner opens 1H, you bid 1S, partner bids 2H, you bid 4N, partner answers with 5S (2 with Q). Do you bid NT or Hearts?

 

Some background info to help you with your decision:

 

This is early in the first session of a 2 session qualifier. You need to average a bit above two 50 % games to Q.

 

Your partner is a client who is up and down, but you rate yourself as better than half the field in general.

 

The field is in general fairly strong so you can expect some company if you bid 7N (it's not like a club game).

 

You cannot ask for third round controls or try some 5N then 7m sequence or something esoteric even if you want to, your partner won't understand.

 

You declare much better than your partner but presumably 7h wont be too tough to play and you expect partner to be able to either ruff a clubor ruff out spades.

[jdonn]

I bid 7NT. Any queen except Qx of clubs makes it a claimer, and as backup plans you may have either a finesse, legitimate squeeze, or just opponents make tons of discards and go wrong. Not to mention a 7th heart.

[han]

I think your partner is very likely to have a side queen so I'd bid 7NT.

[655321]

7NT.

 

I think 7NT is a very big favorite to make, either with 13 top tricks, or a finesse, or a squeeze. I think the matchpoint difference over 7♥ on these occasions will be more than enough to make up for the times 7NT goes down and you get (almost) no matchpoints.

 

For example, here are some completely made-up numbers: By bidding 7NT you might get a 75% board 80% of the time and a 25% board 20% of the time. By bidding 7♥ you might get a 40% board 80% of the time and a 90% board 20% of the time.

[rogerclee]

7N. I expect this to make more than half the time, so I bid it. Even if partner has no Q's, we are not down yet.

 

I also expect 7N-1 to be around 40% of the MPs if it is unmakeable.

[skjaeran]

I'm bidding 7NT. Expect many pairs to reach that spot, so won't be too bad if I can't make this. And I expect to make, of course.

[Roupoil]

7NT. Won't let partner the pleasure to declare a grand :) .

[whereagles]

7NT making on a squeeze is what the client pays you for. Sieze to the opportunity :)

[Finch]

If all I need to qualify is 'a bit over 50%' I bid 7H.

In the final of course 7N.

[andy_h]

I would 7NT it.

[Guest Jlall]

If you bid 7N your dummy is:

 

Jxx

AKQJxx

x

T9x.

 

How do you plan to play it on a heart lead?

[awm]

Win the heart in dummy and lead ♠J at trick two. There is some chance that RHO covers, in which case we are cold. If not, win the ace and cash the spade king. If the queen falls we are also cold. If not, cash the clubs and then the hearts and play for a double squeeze.

 

The spade finesse is about 50% (okay a little more since you can drop ♠Q stiff offside). The squeeze line is a little bit worse -- you need ♠Q to fall doubleton (about 1/3) or both club honors in the opposite hand of the ♠Q (about 1/4). But the squeeze line also gives the opponents a lot of chances to misdefend, either by covering ♠J or by giving you a read on their tempo on ♠J, or by discarding wrong.

 

There also may be some inference based on the lead, that if LHO held only small cards in the majors he might have chosen a spade lead whereas with the spade queen in hand he would absolutely never lead a spade against a grand.

[ceeb]

Win the heart in dummy and lead ♠J at trick two. There is some chance that RHO covers, in which case we are cold. If not, win the ace and cash the spade king. If the queen falls we are also cold. If not, cash the clubs and then the hearts and play for a double squeeze.... or both club honors in the opposite hand of the ♠Q (about 1/4).

Maybe a good idea to test the clubs first then. If you lead the ♣10 at trick 2 & rho reveals both honors -- by covering (e.g. QJ8x) for example -- then the fake spade finesse looks good. However, if rho persuades you she hasn't both clubs, then the best play for the hand is the best play in spades.

[Guest Jlall]

I bid NT and led the SJ off the dummy and they covered with Q9xx (lol). No idea how I was gonna play it, but I know a world class declarer went down on this hand.