Detroit Hand 1

[Guest Jlall]

Today was the first day of the nationals, featuring a 2 day pair game. This was day 1 which is qualifying, and also session 1.

 

You hold AKTx 9xx AKx AJx. Your partner second seat w/r who is not really a crazy preemptor (but not sound either) opens 3D. What is your bidding plan? 4C would be keycard, everything else natural.

 

(There will be a part 2 of this which is a play problem).

[han]

I"m terrible.

[655321]

3NT.

 

Pay off to the parlay of: they lead a heart, they can run 5 heart tricks, and we make 5♦.

[rogerclee]

Can't really imagine anything other than 3N.

[skjaeran]

3NT for me too.

[cnszsun]

I don't see why 3nt is better than 5D, so i bid 5D.

 

Sry, did not notice pairs game.

Edited March 8, 2008 by cnszsun

[Guest Jlall]

OK, agree with 3N bidders.

 

You get the club ten lead and dummy is:

 

--- Kxxx Q98xxxx Kx. After winning the jack how do you play this hand?

[rogerclee]

OK, agree with 3N bidders.

 

You get the club ten lead and dummy is:

 

--- Kxxx Q98xxxx Kx. After winning the jack how do you play this hand?

No way I am trying a ♥ at T2. I'll just cash out 12 tricks.

 

The last time I heard about a maneuver like that was in the Blues. AQJTx on the right :).

[Guest Jlall]

OK, agree with 3N bidders.

 

You get the club ten lead and dummy is:

 

--- Kxxx Q98xxxx Kx. After winning the jack how do you play this hand?

No way I am trying a ♥ at T2. I'll just cash out 12 tricks.

Why do you automatically dismiss it?

 

What do you think the chances are that if the heart ace is offside they will win their ace and shift to something (keep in mind what they are looking at in dummy, and what they perceive you as having given the 3N bid followed by a heart at trick 2)?

 

What do you think the chances are that LHO will pop HA if he has it?

 

What kind of score do you think you will get for 12 tricks?

 

What kind of score do you think you will get for 13 tricks?

 

What kind of score do you think you will get for 11 tricks?

 

What kind of score do you think you will get for less than 11 tricks?

[skjaeran]

Hmm, a ♥ at trick 2 might work, RHO will almost always return a black card after winning an offisde ♥A (normally a ♣, but a ♠ is also quite possible.

 

Lacking a spade in dummy there's no squeeze awailable for 13 tricks.

 

I guess I'd try sneaking a heart through here.

[rogerclee]

Both opponents know as soon as I lead a heart that I have exactly 10 tricks in the minors.

 

Say LHO has the ♥A. LHO knows that if he ducks, it will be at least 11 tricks for me. If I had the ♠A, that gives me 12 and he gains nothing by ducking. If I don't, then he also gains nothing by ducking, since he can lead a spade at T3.

 

Say RHO has the ♥A. If he has the ♥Q, he should cash before leading a spade, since if I have the ♠A, that gives me 11 anyway. If he doesn't, there are still some positions where he should continue hearts (example: if he has ♠QJ he knows that I cannot just have the K, so I have A or AK, so I am trying to steal, so he should play hearts).

 

So I'd say that ♥ at T2 never gains and will lose a little more than a quarter of the time against very good opposition.

 

Whether I expect my opps to think like this, I don't know--I assume this was in an NABC+ event where the opponents are pretty good. At a local regional against unknown opposition, I think a heart makes a lot more sense. Maybe I give my opps too much credit.

 

Maybe I am just trying to justify a bad decision... :)

[gnasher]

Your partner second seat w/r who is not really a crazy preemptor (but not sound either) opens 3D.

dummy is:

 

--- Kxxx Q98xxxx Kx

Am I the only one to find these two statements a little inconsistent?

[655321]

Your partner second seat w/r who is not really a crazy preemptor (but not sound either) opens 3D.

dummy is:

 

--- Kxxx Q98xxxx Kx

Am I the only one who finds these two statements a little inconsistent?

Well, I guess --- Kxxx Q98xxxx Kx is unsound, but xxx xx JTxxxx xx is crazy.

[andy_h]

Agree with 3NT.

 

I think I would just take my 12 tricks. It's probably true that if LHO has the HA he will not take it but when RHO has it, he sometimes will work out what's happening given that his partner did not lead a spade. The field will probably be in 3NT too and some may even lead a spade if the dealer had passed and the 19count opened 1C. So I will take my 12 tricks and hopefully yield an average plus score. We still beat those 5D+1 if the HA is onside, but lose to 6D= no matter what.

 

Though I don't know what's best at these pairs - try for tops on every board, or cruise along with avg+ scores and your tops naturally but when there's a choice between either one on a single hand, opt for avg+ option.

[Rossoneri]

Agree with 3NT.

 

I think I would just take my 12 tricks. It's probably true that if LHO has the HA he will not take it but when RHO has it, he sometimes will work out what's happening given that his partner did not lead a spade. The field will probably be in 3NT too and some may even lead a spade if the dealer had passed and the 19count opened 1C. So I will take my 12 tricks and hopefully yield an average plus score. We still beat those 5D+1 if the HA is onside, but lose to 6D= no matter what.

 

Though I don't know what's best at these pairs - try for tops on every board, or cruise along with avg+ scores and your tops naturally but when there's a choice between either one on a single hand, opt for avg+ option.

Well-said.

[awm]

I'd take my twelve tricks. The lead (club away from queen it seems) is already somewhat favorable. If your partner had passed in first chair (many would pass partner's hand with a queen high suit, a void, and a four-card major) then your hand is opening 1♣ and rebidding 2NT, which may well deter the club lead (it may also lead to your side playing 6♦, but there's not much you can do about that). Without the club lead you'd have to go all out for overtricks (lead heart to king or pop king on the heart lead and have the ace onside) just in order to make twelve tricks.

[Apollo81]

I'd cash out for 12. Several things have happened here which may not happen at other tables:

 

1. Partner preempted

2. The ♣J finesse was taken

3. We're in 3NT, not 5♦

[Guest Jlall]

OK, agree with 3N bidders.

 

You get the club ten lead and dummy is:

 

--- Kxxx Q98xxxx Kx. After winning the jack how do you play this hand?

No way I am trying a ♥ at T2. I'll just cash out 12 tricks.

Why do you automatically dismiss it?

 

What do you think the chances are that if the heart ace is offside they will win their ace and shift to something (keep in mind what they are looking at in dummy, and what they perceive you as having given the 3N bid followed by a heart at trick 2)?

 

What do you think the chances are that LHO will pop HA if he has it?

 

What kind of score do you think you will get for 12 tricks?

 

What kind of score do you think you will get for 13 tricks?

 

What kind of score do you think you will get for 11 tricks?

 

What kind of score do you think you will get for less than 11 tricks?

Since no one wanted to answer this I guess I will.

 

I would say that the chance they win the heart and shift is very high. They have to have AQJ of hearts to play more hearts. And if it's AQJ tight they still might not since that is the suit I'm "trying to set up" so they don't want to "blow a tempo" If they have just the ace or the AQ surely they will play a black suit (both are tempting).

 

I would say LHO would never pop ace, despite what rogerclee thinks no one ever thinks you're doing this. Why do they know you have running clubs if you go after hearts? It's very possible you're loaded in the non diamond suits and are just going for some tricks. I cannot see someone popping with AQx or AJx.

 

I think I will get a good score for 12 tricks, probably something like 65 % of the matchpoints if 6D can make, and 80% otherwise. However I think I will get a top if 6D cant make and a very good board if it can. If I take 11 (rho cashes 2 tricks and shifts) I think I will get below average, and less tricks will be a near 0.

 

All that being said, I'm risking a lot to gain a little. But I think it works sooooo often that its worth it.

[Guest Jlall]

BTW on the subject of making ridiculously ballsy plays at trick 2 and playing wide open, I had this session in a BAM in detroit.

 

ATx

Qx

Txx

KT98x

 

Kx

AKx

Kxx

AJxxx

 

2N p 3N (2N was 19-20)

 

LHO led the 9 of spades, small, jack, king. I crossed to the club king, all following, and led a diamond to the king. Thoughts?

[gnasher]

BTW on the subject of making ridiculously ballsy plays at trick 2 and playing wide open, I had this session in a BAM in detroit.

 

ATx

Qx

Txx

KT98x

 

Kx

AKx

Kxx

AJxxx

 

2N p 3N (2N was 19-20)

 

LHO led the 9 of spades, small, jack, king. I crossed to the club king, all following, and led a diamond to the king. Thoughts?

I prefer this one, partly because you don't already have a good board, so your risk/reward ratio is better, and partly because it's more believable. The opponents will know that your clubs are good, but they'd expect you to play like this with ♦KQxx. LHO might even duck the ace.

 

It might still backfire, though - if LHO has ♦AQ he should get this right, because with ♦KJ you'd have led to the jack rather than the king.

[MFA]

I don't like either of these wild tries. Especially not the latter, since we have good chances to score the ♦K later.

 

Are you playing alot against horrible opposition?

[jdonn]

I really like both tries to steal a trick. I would much sooner go for a top in ways like this than through a knowingly "bad" bid. Defense is very very difficult, put your opponents to the test! It takes a big parlay of

 

the card being off

them not ducking

them returning the suit

 

for it to cost. If either of the first two of those things doesn't occur you get a great board, and since the first one is on its own 50%, the combination is clearly much above that.

 

In the first case I think the field is particularly far off here. The odds are HUGE they will return a spade if the heart is off (and if they don't then it's probably a club - heart is distant third.)

[gnasher]

I don't like either of these wild tries. Especially not the latter, since we have good chances to score the ♦K later.

Which chances are these?

 

Unless there is some kind of two-loser vice (vise?) available, I can't see way to score a diamond trick that doesn't involve leading one to the king. If you're going to do that, it's much safer to do it at trick 3.

[gnasher]

LHO led the 9 of spades, small, jack, king.

I've only just noticed this. Is that really what happened? If so, RHO has ♠QJ doubleton, or LHO has led the 9 from Q98xxxx, or RHO has done something very odd.

 

If LHO has six or seven spades, that increases the chances of ♦A being onside. Against that, LHO is less likely to duck ♦A if he thinks we have three spade tricks.

Edited March 12, 2008 by gnasher

[dcvetkov]

LHO led the 9 of spades, small, jack, king.

I've only just noticed this. Is that really what happened? If so, RHO has ♠QJ doubleton, or LHO has led the 9 from Q98xxxx, or RHO has done something very odd.

 

If LHO has six or seven spades, that increases the chances of ♦A being onside. Against that, LHO is less likely to duck ♦A if he thinks we have three spade tricks.

This is not exactly true. Maybe not in this hand, since lead is 9, but if you work out the hand,it is possible to throw LHO on lead with a third round of spades, and endplay him into leading a diamond from Ax.