To game or not to game...

[Guest Jlall]

You hold:

 

xxx AQxx Ax AJxx. Imps none vul.

 

RHO opens 1D, you X, LHO bids 3D, partner bids 3H, pass, to you. Do you kick it in? How close is this decision?

[655321]

4♥

 

Have no idea if 4♥ will make or not, but I would always bid this without thinking, so not sure if that means it is close or a WTP.

;)

[pclayton]

Hmm. Seems pard has about an 8 count, exactly 3 spades and probably a dub D. Doop looms, and pard's spades are very poorly placed.

 

Kxx Kxxxx xx Qxx. Thanks we are high enough.

 

Axx KJxx xx Qxxx. Nope

 

xxx Kxxxx xx KQx. This is the best hand I think I can come up with, but it's very specific.

 

The critical card on these layouts seems the be the club 10. It makes a big difference.

 

I've convinced myself I'm high enough.

[rogerclee]

I'd bid 4♥. I think

 

1) It is certainly possible that LHO has four spades. I'd choose to preempt on a lot of hands that are 4-5 with bad spades. But I agree it is fair to assume that partner likely has exactly 3 spades.

 

2) Limiting partner to 8 points is sort of pessimistic. If you double aggressively, partner may choose to bid only 3♥ on hands which are up to 10 points, expecting you to raise to 4♥ with hands like this.

 

3) Club/heart finesses, if needed, are likely on.

 

That said, I don't think this is particularly obvious, and I could be easily convinced that the probability of losing 3 spades + another trick is too high.

[jdonn]

Wasn't partner a passed hand? Could be wrong, and doubtful that it matters anyway.

[han]

Yes partner is a passed hand.

[pclayton]

I think pard should punch it into game with a many 10-11's.

 

8 seems like a good midpoint, since I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of 7's or primo 6's across the table.

[kenrexford]

I solved this problem earlier by overcalling 1NT.

[inquiry]

IF we were vulnerable at imps (we are not) this is automatic 4♥.

 

Not vul, it is closer, a lot closer. I think at the table i would have bid 4♥ on "auto". Upon reflection, it should not be automatic. Partner's 3♥ bid could have been under pressure and just competitive. Pass is probably the winner more often than not. So upon reflection, I am thinking pass will be best. Bid too often with hands like this, and parnter might learn not to compete on lightish fitting hands.

[655321]

I solved this problem earlier by overcalling 1NT.

Apart from the fact that 1NT is a fairly ugly bid with Ax diamond when you have a perfectly good takeout double instead, it doesn't always solve your problem:

 

1♦-1NT-3♦-P

P-?

 

OK, if you make a game partner should be able to act over 3♦.

But now you have to pass 3♦ and risk scoring -110 when you could score +140.

[MFA]

Pass. Close? Yes, I suppose. But I think pass will be quite a solid long term winner. I hate spade xxx here, where we need a miracle for partner not to have three as well.

[kenrexford]

I solved this problem earlier by overcalling 1NT.

Apart from the fact that 1NT is a fairly ugly bid with Ax diamond when you have a perfectly good takeout double instead, it doesn't always solve your problem:

 

1♦-1NT-3♦-P

P-?

 

OK, if you make a game partner should be able to act over 3♦.

But now you have to pass 3♦ and risk scoring -110 when you could score +140.

It is allowed to go 1♦-1NT-3♦-X-P-3♥.

[655321]

I solved this problem earlier by overcalling 1NT.

Apart from the fact that 1NT is a fairly ugly bid with Ax diamond when you have a perfectly good takeout double instead, it doesn't always solve your problem:

 

1♦-1NT-3♦-P

P-?

 

OK, if you make a game partner should be able to act over 3♦.

But now you have to pass 3♦ and risk scoring -110 when you could score +140.

It is allowed to go 1♦-1NT-3♦-X-P-3♥.

Fair point, although having heard about your hearts, partner will now bid 4♥ on many of the hands that bid 3♥ on the original auction - e.g. on all of pclaytons hands.

[benlessard]

Facing a passed hand ill make lightish X so easy 4H in that case.

 

Not facing a passed hand i guess its also 4H. Partner bid 3H expecting to make it a fair amount of times, at first i thought holding 2D was a big minus, but since partner probably got 2D hes guessing that ive got probably 2 and decided to bid 3H anyway i assume i can bid 4.

[gnasher]

Pass. I thought it was close until I saw pclayton's analysis.

[Codo]

close pass

4 ♥ vul. or while on fire.

[whereagles]

4♥ first, ask questions later.

[the hog]

Agree with Nuno, especially vul. Might pass at MPs

[mikegill]

I would bid game. Yes it is close. Disagree strongly with a direct 1n.

[skjaeran]

As one who is punting game a lot, I must say I'm surprised with the number of people raising on this. I'm a passer here, and I don't think it's that close.

[skjaeran]

Gave the problem to a friend of mine - a strong player.

Easy 4♥ for him.

[ArtK78]

Looks like a pass of 3♥ for me. My regular partners are aggressive players. They would open most hands that make game reasonable and, failing that, they would probably jump to 4♥ on most of the rest of them. So the 3♥ bid may have been a stretch.

 

I don't want to hang partner. And, quite frankly, despite all of the controls this hand is not as good as it might appear to be. It is a 7 loser hand. It is unlikely that pard will have a hand that can cover 4 of my losers given that he is a passed hand and he did not jump to 4♥.

[keylime]

As nuts as I am about getting to game, I'm swiftly passing in tempo. Pard is not going to have coverage.

[MFA]

The more I think about this the more I get convinced that pass is right.

[andy_h]

I'm going to pass