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Straight evaluation


Guest Jlall

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I appear to have opened a 15-17 NT on (an admittedly control-rich) 13-count. Is that entirely what you meant?
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Does 5H (other hands 5C,5D) accept slam?

Or further try - out at 5N if no like H (other D,C)? I want to ask H-help (this time) ->go; not->5N.

 

Partner quantitative 4N invite with at most 1xA +3xK! Maybe I should go anyway. Did pard have a poor controls GF, slam try and didn't use that? Stay home.

Does 4N Quan promise expectable controls (5-6)?

 

I like this problem for systemic meanings that should be addressed. Esp. controls promised.

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5. Commits us to 5NT or higher. Partner can last train 5 if he has heart support but questions.

 

BTW -- good point for modified Puppet. This auction would show precisely 5233 using that approach. Otherwise, if Responder had 5/3, he could explore both majors below 3NT. The simplest version would be 3, Opener bidding 3 to deny a five-card major, and Responder bidding 3 if necessary. In the actual auction, Opener would bid 3NT, showing five hearts, and Responder could bid accordingly.

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Anyone have an opinion on the difference between 5 and 6?

This is intersting because assuming 4NT shows 5332 5 should be showing 5 pieces. Normally I'd play 5 shows 4 and 6 shows 5 but this seems pointless here.

 

To me 5 is forcing. So what's the difference? I don't know but maybe 5 should be asking for a control in search of 6 but that's stupid.

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Anyone have an opinion on the difference between 5 and 6?

This is an area I've given lots of thought before. 6 should simply be a better suit where partner can pass on any holding Hx or better, such as KQJxx. 5 is forcing but you can pass 5NT if that's all partner can do, or bid 6NT if your hand is better. So 5 could still be a good suit if the hand isn't good enough for slam sans fit.

 

I definitely don't like 6 on this hand based on my own understandings, as partner would pass with as bad as Jx. Or to put it another way, if partner can't raise 5 then you really don't belong in hearts, and you can still bid slam anyway if you want to.

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Pass.

 

Agree that 5 (after partner shows 5332) should be a 5 card suit, no longer just 4.

 

If we didn't have a 5 card suit, passing would be very clear, despite all the controls.

On the actual hand, we have chances to make 5 spade tricks, and also chances to make 5 heart tricks, which makes slam more likely.

 

However, we still have 2 balanced hands with perhaps 31-32 HCP. Even when we run one of our major suits, more tricks will be needed. I prefer to stay out of borderline slams, so I pass. Second choice 5.

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6 should simply be a better suit where partner can pass on any holding Hx or better, such as KQJxx.

That seems sensible.

 

After bidding 5H, we might still reach 6S, which would be better opposite something like AQJxx Kx Kxx Kxx.

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Anyone have an opinion on the difference between 5 and 6?

We play over any quantitative NT :

 

Bids at the five-level show doubt as to level and identify the number of controls by steps so we do not get to six off two aces etc. (Exception on this auction 5 would be to play obviously. Just pick a minimum - you might choose 3 or 4 over a strong NT. We actually choose two and use the same steps for every auction. If it was a straight quantitative auction with no choice of strains we play as follows:

 

...... 4NT

 

5 Not sure with two or seven controls

 

5 Not sure with three or eight controls

 

5 Not sure with four (or nine controls)

 

5 Not sure with five controls (forget about ten)

 

5NT Not sure with six controls

 

 

Bids at the six-level would offer a choice of contracts.

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If the difference between 5 and 6 is truly a suit quality one, then 5 (forcing one round) is both perfect and, I think, obvious.

 

Our hand is way too good to pass 4N. Only walruses count this abundance of controls as 15.

 

But I suspect that if we were merely given the auction to 5 and asked what 5 meant, we'd get quite a few votes for 'a hand that accepts but only has 2 Aces'.

 

Personally, I can't imagine being worried about being off 2 Aces if I held 2 and had a partner make a quantitative slam move, so my preference would be for 5 to be natural, on a weakish suit: ie a perfect call. But I am not the least bit sure that my partner will be on the same wavelength.

 

However, 5 is perfect when we do think the same way and probably survivable when we do not, whereas 6 is a guess with less assurance of survival when we are not clicking as to meaning. So I bid 5.

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Our hand is way too good to pass 4N. Only walruses count this abundance of controls as 15.

I would like to take issue with this point.

 

I don't have a problem with the choice to bid on - my preference is to pass, but that is not what I want to defend here.

 

If partner invited a game and we held this hand, we would accept the invitation because of the good controls. But an invitation to slam is different. You may decide that a 5 card spade suit and a 5 card suit are a sufficient source of tricks to accept the invitation, no problem. But I don't agree that you can accept on a minimum HCP because you have a lot of controls - you still don't want to play 6NT on a combined 31HCP, 2 balanced hands and no fit just because you have all the aces.

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Our hand is way too good to pass 4N. Only walruses count this abundance of controls as 15.

I would like to take issue with this point.

 

I don't have a problem with the choice to bid on - my preference is to pass, but that is not what I want to defend here.

 

If partner invited a game and we held this hand, we would accept the invitation because of the good controls. But an invitation to slam is different. You may decide that a 5 card spade suit and a 5 card suit are a sufficient source of tricks to accept the invitation, no problem. But I don't agree that you can accept on a minimum HCP because you have a lot of controls - you still don't want to play 6NT on a combined 31HCP, 2 balanced hands and no fit just because you have all the aces.

 

Maybe I didn't express my point well. I think that most serious analysts of the point count approach to valuation agree that the 4321 scale undervalues Aces and Kings and overvalues Queens and Jacks (while missing 9's and 10's and ignoring 'in and out' factors, combining factors etc).

 

Thus a hand with 7 controls comprising 3 Aces and a King will, unless one of the honours is stiff, be undervalued by assigning it a 15 count valuation, and this is true whether one be considering game or slam.

 

Furthermore, such a hand containing a suit of A10xxx is certainly to be upgraded.

 

While I do not run or use the K & R valuation method, maybe someone who does can verify my expectation that this hand is worth more than many 16 counts.

 

As for the question of a slam invite... notrump bidding, whether it be for game or slam, is generally relatively arithmetic... partner likely has a good 15 to a good 16 or maybe a poor 17.

 

I ran a simulation, requiring that responder be some 5332 with 5 spades and 15-16 hcp. I deleted a few 15 counts.. where responder possessed one Ace and either 1 or 0 Kings.. and a weak spade suit.

 

Subject to that, and assuming what I viewed as normal technique and not looking for esoteric positions (I have only so much time available), the results were that in 56 hands, all slams failed 25 times, all slams (6N/6/6) made 14 times, 6 was the only making slam 5 times, 6 4 times, 6N and 6 3 times, and 6N + 6 5 times.

 

This relatively small sample confirmed that it was a good idea to suggest hearts as a suit, and that slam is a good bet on the whole.

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