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Diamond. Opener probably doesn't have four if he is honest. I don't agree that a spade is asking partner to have too much; we could easily hit Axxx or a 5 card suit. In fact, there are some people aganist whom I'd lead a spade (people that i know open weaker minor and who arent up to double crossing me)
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I see 3 choices , or . This is that kind of board where you have to make a good wish: partner has at maximum 5-6 hcp, and opps have a source of tricks and as long as A will be knocked out, they will usually make the game. Let's take a deeper look on every lead:

 

- lead - will work when partner has length and honours, and it's has a pretty small success expentacy: needs to find partener with Axxxx (and to be 22) or KQxxx.

- lead - probably best in MP's has some flaws. If inverted minors denies 4 cards major, it has frequntly 3+card in other minor (3325, 3235, 2335, 3145, 2245, 1345 are the most frequent shapes). Adding 2+ in the opener's hand, it's pretty improbable that partner has a 5 carder in . So usually in the best case we will make 4 tricks in diamonds, and this means it's not late to play diamonds even after we'll play A (3+A is not good enough)

- lead - pretty strangely, has a bigger chance of success than or. It needs Axxxx in partner's hand (or QJxxx and Ax in opps hand). And it's more probable than lead, because we have an increased chance to find a 5 carder in our 3 card suit, than in a 4 card suit, and it doesn't depend on lying 22, as in .

So statistically lead should work better than lead or lead

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Who opened the bidding? RHO?

 

Then I expect at least 1 of my kings to win, which means I may have another chance to strike the right suit, after ace of clubs is knocked out. It is not guaranteed that they have 9 tricks for taking after club ace is knocked out, unless one opp has 6 clubs.

 

I think I will still stick with a small spade, and hope partner has 5 with honour, Q10xx, QJxx, or some other helpful holding . If spade is dead wrong, then then we have to take 3 quick tricks after I win hopefully one of my red suit kings.

 

in MP, blowing overticks is always consideration, so I would lead spade for the same reason

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