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Another 4C opening...


Poky

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Ok, what am I missing?

 

If I add the probabilities of all hands that have 2 or fewer non-club losers together, I infer than 5C makes 59.1% of tjme and that you have estimated losers of between 2.5/3 54.4% of the time.

 

Clearly this is not possible and even it it was, it appears to favor bidding 5C, not that game is unlikely.

Check your math.

 

I ended up with 41.7%

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