Good hand

[han]

I love BBO, this weekend it dealt me this hand:

 

[hv=d=&v=&s=saqhakq10xxxxxdaca]133|100|[/hv]

 

2C - (2D) - p - (5D)

??

[gwnn]

6♥. are we supposed to psyche something?

[Guest Jlall]

any agreements on pards pass?

[han]

No agreements.

 

This wasn't meant as an interesting bidding problem as much as a thank you to Fred for giving me hands like this.

[Guest Jlall]

ah if only there were a forum specifically for hands that were just interesting

[kenrexford]

any agreements on pards pass?

Um. I'll takle a stab here. It probably promises a King or two Queens, or better. So, he could have, as a minimum, any of the three missing Kings, or the two missing Queens.

 

That makes this thing turn on one of the following:

 

1. the right King (25%),

2. the heart Jack and a side King (50% times 33% = 16.67%)

3. the heart Jack and the spade finesse working (25% times 33% times 50% = 4.17%)

 

So far, 45.84%.

 

I might get a spade lead (+0.000001%), but hearts splitting 4-0 against me seems more likely.

 

Partner might have the heart 10x or three small, increasing my odds slightly.

 

However, I cannot get us close enough to make this a 50-50 venture if partner has a minimum.

 

That said, partner might not have a minimum.

 

Ugh!

 

Well, since 6NT and 6♥ are roughly the same, I'll bid 6♦ and force partner to pick. If he picks hearts (really???), I'll bid 7. If he picks spades, I'll bid 6NT and hope he figures this out and does what is right. If he bids 7♣, I'll bid 7NT and hope.

[han]

My apologies for wasting everybody's time.

[kenrexford]

My apologies for wasting everybody's time.

No time wasted. I found this one interesting. But, maybe my endorsement hurts. LOL

[han]

♥

[CSGibson]

7H. It's online bridge and they still have to figure out which king to keep, even if there's no legitimate line of play. 6H if in a real game.

[Cascade]

7H. It's online bridge and they still have to figure out which king to keep, even if there's no legitimate line of play. 6H if in a real game.

And there is reasonable chance that there is a legimate line of play.

 

♠ K 1/3

 

♥ J and ♦K or ♣K or spade finesse ~ 1/3 x (1/3 + 1/3*2/3 + 1/2 * 2/3 * 2/3)

 

plus extra chances when partner has two or more trumps

 

All in this must be well over 50% - I have nearly 60% on the two chances above.

 

7♥!!!!

[han]

Cascade, given that the opponents bid 2D and then 5D your calculation is obviously not accurate. If partner's pass showed or denied values then that would also change the odds by a lot of course but unfortunately I had never played with this partner before.

[pclayton]

7♥. Aside from the ♠K, we might catch a parlay of the ♥J (9xx) / ♣K or an entry for the spade hook.

[whereagles]

I keep getting these things wrong. If I bid 7, pard hasn't got squat. If I bid 6, pard lays-down the ♠K. AAAAARGH.

 

Perhaps I should bid 5♥. They'll probably bid 6♦ and then I take the "push" to 6♥, they double and I make it :)

[kenrexford]

I think that the beuty of a 6♦ call is profound. You will and can play 6/7NT as needed. But, if partner thinks you are forcing a slam in a major of his choice, will he resign to 6♠ if he is looking at the spade King?

[Cascade]

Cascade, given that the opponents bid 2D and then 5D your calculation is obviously not accurate. If partner's pass showed or denied values then that would also change the odds by a lot of course but unfortunately I had never played with this partner before.

I know. It was intended as a rough guide without information.

 

On general principles the probability of the ♦K is lower and the probability of the ♣K is probably a little higher as is the chance of the ♠K (these probably do not balance with the diamond honour being considerably less likely than the club honour is more likely). In addition the chance of extra length in hearts is probably a little higher.

 

Some of this will depend on the agreement about pass - but if you don't know then you are stuck with general principles.

 

Neither of the opponent's bids imply strength.

[Cascade]

Here are some empirical results.

 

On the assumption that the overcaller had some (modest) values - I'd bid with a semi-decent looking weak two and his partner had reasonable values and or distribution for the leap to 5♦ I got these numbers.

 

Partner has:

 

♠K roughly 34%

 

♦K only 6% much lower than I estimated but there is an additional chance that partner has a diamonds void which was around 5%

 

♣K similar to ♠K

 

0 hearts 4%

1 heart 23%

2 hearts 43%

3 hearts 26%

4 hearts 4%

 

7♥ made double dummy 68%.

 

This is probably a slight over estimate of the single dummy chance as there will be the occasional stiff ♠K offside etc.

[han]

So how likely is it that partner raises 6NT to 7 when it is right? For example, if partner has both black kings, would he raise to 7? On how many of these hands would partner have bid 2S over 2D? And how likely is it that partner has J9xx of hearts and can ruff out clubs for a discard? And on how many of those hands would partner raise 6H to 7H?

 

This turned out to be a more interesting discussion than I thought.

 

I bid 6NT at the table. Partner had nothing useful and my online opponents did not discard the spade king so I made only 6. At the other table the auction was identical to this point but my counterpart bid 7H which went down 1.

 

The opponents had a good sac available (7D).

[jdonn]

I bid 6NT at the table. Partner had nothing useful and my online opponents did not discard the spade king so I made only 6. At the other table the auction was identical to this point but my counterpart bid 7H which went down 1.

It was a 3♦ overcall at the other table. Otherwise identical.