Picking the right line

[Echognome]

[hv=d=s&v=b&n=shaqt3dt2caj98764&s=sqt94hkj7652daq8c]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1♥ - (2♠) - 3♠ - (4♠)

Dbl - (P) - 5♣ - (P)

5♦ - (P) - 6♥ - All Pass[/hv]

(hands rotated for convenience)

 

Opening Lead: ♠8

What is your plan to bring this slam home?

 

Usual request that advanced plus give a little time for BILlies to answer first.

[Mbodell]

My choices seem to be ruff out the clubs, or maybe try a diamond finesse or endplay, or go for the cross ruff. To me ruff out the clubs seems to be the way to start developing the clubs.

 

So

 

T1: 3♥;4♠

T2: 4♣;2♥

T3: 5♥;T♥

T4: 6♣;J♥

 

Now as long as clubs split 4-2 (high ruff, trump return pulling trump running clubs) or 3-3 I'm home free.

[pclayton]

I think is a very interesting hand. I assume the lead is 3rd best?

 

I won't give my thoughts, but I think there's more to it than meets the eye.

[vuroth]

6 losers in south's hand. I'll try to eliminate them as follows:

1 - diamond finesse

1 - on the club ace

3 - ruff.

 

I'm quite confident that both opponents have at least 3 spades from the bidding, so I'll aim to ruff 3 spades on the board, throw a diamond on the ace of clubs, and try to use the diamond finesse as transportation (which I'm low on).

 

If all goes well:

spade ruff

club ace, discard diamond

diamond finesse

spade ruff

diamond to ace

spade ruff

 

I'm not quite home yet, as clubs may be 3-0. Cash the high trump on the board. If both follow, ruff a club high, high trump and claim 6.

 

If LHO shows out, club to hand, ruffing high enough to win and claim.

 

If RHO shows out, club to low ruff, hope it wins.

 

I prefer this to establishing clubs, because 1) I don't trust clubs to break nicely, and 2) my ruffing spots in hand are poor

 

Still, I'm just below 50%, so maybe there's something better out there. (I am unlikely to survive failing the diamond finesse, as a return in either red suit is bad.)

 

V

[jtfanclub]

I'll discard a diamond from dummy...assuming that the diamond finesse loses, no harm in it.

 

Example:

 

Trick 1, diamond from the board, A♠ wins.

Trick 2, low heart to dummy, opp follows (obvious play, IMHO).

Trick 3, ruff a club.

Trick 4, Queen of spades, covered by K and ruffed on the board low.

Trick 5, Ruff a club high.

 

If at this point both follow, I'm done. Ruff a spade, ruff a club high, draw the last trump, and claim.

 

If the hearts or clubs split badly, I have some interesting choices, depending upon when I find out. One is to ruffing finesse the spade, since the 2♠ bidder should have two of the top 3 honors.

[matmat]

edit -- i need to learn to count. :P

 

my analysis is going to be a little skewed, as I think i've seen the deal, but your choices are either trying to ruff everything in sight and hope you don't get overruffed somewhere (most likely in clubs) or try to ruff the clubs out, where you pretty much need them to break 4-2 or better (which is ~80% or something like that?)

 

anyhow, with all the pretty hearts in dummy this does look like a textbook dummy reversal hand :) (remembering to ruff the clubs high after the first ruff).

 

i think you might be able to combine that with clubs 5-1 with LHO having 5. cash the club ace. ruff a club low (or overruff if rho ruffs in).

(edit #234242.5, i think maybe should ruff the second club trick high, need to be able to try to cross ruff things in case lefty shows out, and can't afford to be overruffed and have a trump pulled - can then ruff the third club low and i think trump 3-0 might still pose a challange then.)

[jtfanclub]

i think you might be able to combine that with clubs 5-1 with LHO having 5.

You might want to look at the auction....

[matmat]

i think you might be able to combine that with clubs 5-1 with LHO having 5.

You might want to look at the auction....

you're right of course...

noone ever preempts 2♠ on 5xx5 or 6xx5 distribution.

 

my bad.

sorry everyone!

[jtfanclub]

i think you might be able to combine that with clubs 5-1 with LHO having 5.

You might want to look at the auction....

you're right of course...

noone ever preempts 2♠ on 5xx5 or 6xx5 distribution.

 

my bad.

sorry everyone!

On 5xx5? No. That's what Michaels is for, especially when the opening suit is hearts.

 

6xx5? Um, sure. Or just ruff 3 spades and take the diamond finesse.

[matmat]

On 5xx5?  No.  That's what Michaels is for, especially when the opening suit is hearts.

 

6xx5?  Um, sure.  Or just ruff 3 spades and take the diamond finesse.

again, you're absolutely right.

 

opps are always striving to tell me their exact distribution, especially when our side holds the balance of hcp.

 

why didn't I think of that!?

 

 

and yeah... taking the diamond finesse is much superior to trying to ruff out clubs and relying on the diamond finesse if that doesn't work.

[han]

This is a difficult hand and I am not 100% sure what the best line is. I will assume that the opponents lead 3/5 otherwise I can't make sense of the 8-lead. That means that LHO likely has KJ8xxx and RHO Axx. Which also suggests that both have shapely hands, LHO for his vulnerable jump overcall on such a shabby suit and RHO for his vulnerable raise to 4S on such shabby support.

 

It seems clearly right to ruff the first trick and play the club ace. I will discard a diamond on the club ace, why will be clear in a second.

 

I lead a club and if RHO follows I ruff low. I toyed with the idea of ruffing high as LHO is possibly able to overruff. However, it is really unlikely that we can make the hand if LHO has a stiff club and ruffing high could cost if trumps are 0-3.

 

If both follow to the club trick we can claim.

 

Now suppose that RHO shows out on the club, perhaps pitching a spade. We ruff low, ruff a spade, ruff a club, ruff another spade, ruff a club, ruff our fourth spade and lead a fifth round of clubs.

 

IF RHO ruffs in we pitch the diamond queen and can claim unless LHO started with a diamond void. If RHO discards we ruff with our last low club, cash our KJ of trumps and cash our ace of diamonds. Neither can ruff this and the queen is either for their king or the last trump.

 

Note that we do not take the practice finesse in diamonds. It would not help RHO to ruff in earlier.

[jtfanclub]

and yeah... taking the diamond finesse is much superior to trying to ruff out clubs and relying on the diamond finesse if that doesn't work.

If you start to run clubs and RHO shows out on the second one, you have all the time in the world to change your strategy. That's my point.

 

But if your RHO has the 5 clubs, which is a whole lot more likely, then you just went down when you ruffed the first trick.

[matmat]

and yeah... taking the diamond finesse is much superior to trying to ruff out clubs and relying on the diamond finesse if that doesn't work.

If you start to run clubs and RHO shows out on the second one, you have all the time in the world to change your strategy. That's my point.

 

But if your RHO has the 5 clubs, which is a whole lot more likely, then you just went down when you ruffed the first trick.

ok

so if i don't ruff the first trick and rho returns a diamond, what do i do now?

[han]

jtfanclub, it is indeed more likely that LHO has short clubs, although one can't help but wonder what both opponents are bidding on.

 

I don't buy that it is normal defense to return a trump. I think normal defense is to return a diamond. If you start this way and then find out that LHO has short clubs, I doubt that you will make the contract.

 

Cashing the club ace early as matmat suggested does not give up much. Say you follow the line others suggested, ruff, ruff a club, trump to dummy, ruff a club high. If LHO shows out then you are almost certainly down.

[jtfanclub]

so if i don't ruff the first trick and rho returns a diamond, what do i do now?

Ace of diamonds, 1 round of trump to dummy, Ace of clubs, and another club.

 

If RHO discards or ruffs, ruff with the minimum card that will take the trick, Ten of of spades covered and ruffed, ruff a club low, ruff a diamond, draw 1 trump, ruff a club low, draw 2 more trump and claim.

 

If RHO follows suit, ruff*. If LHO also follows, draw a trump, ruff a club high, draw the last trump, ruff a club low, ruff a diamond, and claim. Win all trump leads in dummy. Works unless LHO has all 3 hearts (if he does there's still time to switch).

 

If LHO discards, and his first club was the KQ or T, lemme see. Ruff the club high, draw a second trump, play the Jack of clubs, covered and ruffed, a third trump, nine of clubs, covered and ruffed, ruff a diamond, and claim. Works unless LHO has all 3 trump.

 

If LHO discards, and his first club was a low one, hmmmm...ruff the club low, Queen of spades, covered and ruffed, ruff a club, ten of spades, covered and ruffed, ruff a club low, ruff a diamond, ruff a club, draw the last trump, and claim. Only works if LHO had a single trump to go with his single club. Not good odds.

 

I think there's better ways to control if LHO has a singleton small club, but I can't find it.

 

*high if LHO's first club was the K, Q, or T, low if it was a low club.

[han]

never mind.

[jtfanclub]

Hmmm, I see a problem here if RHO has the singleton. Originally, I had it as doing the spade force on trick 2. Now I have it as drawing 1 round of trump.

 

Lemme think. If the first club is a by LHO is the K, Q, or T, I still need two forces off of RHO. That requires a trump to start. On the other hand, if RHO has shortness, I need to start by ruffing out a spade, right? Lemme think. LHO is fixed with 6-1-1-5 (if the diamond is void, I lose). RHO has 3-2-7-1.

 

So RHO sluffs a spade on the second club, and I ruff low. I play the ten of spades, covered and ruffed. I ruff a second club. Now I play the 9 of spades. If it's covered, I'm home. Ruff a club, ruff a diamond, ruff a club, draw the last trump. And if LHO has 5-5 in the black and didn't Michaels, I guess I'd be home by the same play. Unfortunately, when LHO covers, I get hit.

 

Unfortunately, I have to decide on trick 3 which way I'm going. I think I'll ignore the QT9x of spades and draw a round of trump. Must be a better way to do this.

[Echognome]

Ok. So there are probably several variations on how the play might go *if* suits break poorly. The idea of this hand was not come up with a complicated hand where you need to take some tricky safety play. It was to point out that if we have a choice of lines (here the choice is to set up dummy's clubs or to try to make our own hand good with ruffs), then it is often right to set up the long suit. So, with this in mind, I ruffed a club and West played the ♣Q. Did this make me shift lines? No. Of course not. West can play the ♣Q with relatively impunity to try to make me play for something that doesn't work. So I crossed over in trumps and East showed out. So I ruffed another club high and when they split 4-2, I could claim.

 

Perhaps it would have been better to play ♣A and ruff a club high in case they were 1-5. But the point here is that playing for clubs 4-2 or better is a very high percentage to begin with. At the other table, declarer played ♣A, ruffed a club, then ruffed a spade and it was all over. Now you cannot set up your clubs and enjoy them. When the diamond finesse failed, he eventually ended up down 2.

[han]

Ok. So there are probably several variations on how the play might go *if* suits break poorly.

Of course I completely agree with you that you should try to set up clubs instead of crossruffing, and that observation will make a difference much more often than anything else that we were discussing.

 

But when you try to figure out which precise line is the best, it gets quite complicated.

 

The problem is that when you find out that clubs are splitting badly, it might already be too late. Hence the variations suggested by JT (pitch a diamond on the first trick so that later you can perhaps set up a spade trick) or matmat (cash the club ace first in case RHO shows out on the second round).

 

This is a good problem hand at different levels.

[jchiu]

jtfanclub, it is indeed more likely that LHO has short clubs, although one can't help but wonder what both opponents are bidding on.

Just because it is their turn to bid. And they probably led the ♠8 just because it was closest to their mouse pointer.

[vuroth]

The idea of this hand was not come up with a complicated hand where you need to take some tricky safety play. It was to point out that if we have a choice of lines (here the choice is to set up dummy's clubs or to try to make our own hand good with ruffs), then it is often right to set up the long suit.

Good problem. Obviously, I got it wrong.

 

Interestingly, I suspect that my line is superior if you turn the diamond queen into a king. I also feel much more comfortable about the club line if opponents don't bid.

 

V