How to play

[bridgeboy]

[hv=d=s&v=e&n=sk863hq97dq43caq6&s=saj1054ha3dk976c87]133|200|Scoring: IMP

West Leads the J ♣ (standard leads) against your 4♠. Rate your chances.

Bidding as requested: 1S 2NT 4S [/hv]

[WGF_Flame]

U should play the Q on the first round, if it loses, then u have 1 club loser 1 heart , which means u cant offered to lose spade, and only 1 dimond, which should be done by playing spades for the drop (AK) when this work, ur best bet in dimond is to play for A doublton or singelton, u need to guess the oppent to hold this A and play dimond trough him.

if the club queen wins u play the spades again AK, if they got QXX then ur a bit better then u where with a club loser, u can now clear the clubs and give the spade, this give u lil more chance cause they need to open heart or dimond, but u might go back to the same chances of A doublton dimond incase that didnt help u.

if both spade and club behave then its cold cause u got only 1 heart lose and max two dimonds.

[inquiry]

For puzzles it is best to give the bidding, even if the opponents pass all the time.

 

What are my chances? With five possible losers (1S, 2D, 1C, 1H). There is nothing to do but play the ♣Queen. We are in trouble if it loses and a ♥ comes back then I am probably down (since if ♥ back sure ♥K with west and you quickly lose 1♣, 1♥ so you will have to find both the ♠Q and specifically doubleton ♦A).

 

On a ♣ back, you have a better chance. First, never lead a ♥ yourself under pain of death. Second, ruff a ♣ to eliminate that suit. The theory is now that you will pull trumps (hope you lucky enough to find the ♠Q), and play on ♦'s. This gives you a fighting chance. If find the hand with ♦Ax you lose 1♣, 1♦ and 1♥ at most. If ♦ are 3-3 you need one more piece of luck. The hand with the ♦ ace must hold the ♥King and must be forced to win not only the ♦A but also win the third round of the suit. This way, when he wins the third round, he will be forced to exit with a ♣ or a ♥.

 

If from the play in the ♣ suit I think WEST has long (5) ♣s I would play ♠ to King, ♠A on way back. When ♠ turn out to be 2-2, I will play ♦ to dummy playing west for 2-4-2-5 with doubleton A of ♦. If West proved to have six ♣, I hook ♠ on way back and follow the same line. If EAST turns out to have ♦ ace, you have to hope he has ♦AJT and the ♥K so he can’t avoid the endplay on the third round of ♦. If the ♦Q wins, I am hooking the ♦9 on the way back, if east plays low. If East plays the J or T on second round, ugh… he has given you a losing option. You play the QUEEN if WEST has [DT]AJx or ATx, but must play low if West had ♦Ax.

 

Here is where bidding is key. East has shown up with ♣A and if he has the ♦A, it might be a stretch to think he has ♥K too if he had a chance to overcall at a low level, say if North opened 1♣. On the other hand if south opened 1♠ and north jumped to 2NT (Jacoby), East can't possible bid. Also if WEST had 5♥ and 5♣ with ♥K, singleton ♠Q (since it will fall or I am down as with 5♣ I am playing 2-2 spades), and doubleton ♦A he might have bid 2NT or something over 1♠ or 1NT after 1♣-P-1♠ (sandwich).

 

But ok, to answer your question, what are my chances? I have to find ♦Ax or find ♦AJx, ATx, or AJT in the same hand with the ♥K no unblock available.

[bridgeboy]

After reading the replies, I think most get the general idea that you need to endplay East if he has AJ10 or find Ax with West. It is interesting to note that there is another chance, playing for East to hold Kx in clubs.

 

So you might play: Win Ace club, draw trumps (hoping to get good guess) then small club towards the Q. When you put up the Q and loses to the K, East might be endplayed if he held something like xxx Kxxxx Axx Kx

 

Does this represent an extra chance without affecting your original hopes? Thanks for responding :)

[inquiry]

I would not cherish the chance of finding EAST with Kx of ♣ specifically. Now, if you knew that WEST never, ever, lead the ♣J from KJT(x), maybe there is a case for not taking the ♣hook. For instance, if West was a religious follower of the JACK denies a higher honor, and the TEN promises two higher or zero higher school of bridge. But as long as there is a reasonable chance WEST holds the ♣K I am not willing to forgo that chance for the slim chance EAST has specifically Kx doubleton of ♣.

 

Ben

[bridgeboy]

Maybe I'm missing something here...

 

What i meant was if you delay the club finesse, you get an extra chance.

 

If West started with the King, you still pitch your H loser on the club and lose only 2 D, 1C.

[inquiry]

Maybe I'm missing something here...

 

What i meant was if you delay the club finesse, you get an extra chance.

 

If West started with the King, you still pitch your H loser on the club and lose only 2 D, 1C.

Against this slim chance of catching EAST with Kx of clubs, you run the risk of catching EAST with Kx.... and he then leads away from a collection of small ♥s. There is a psychological reason for playing the QUEEN on the first round, as EAST may return the suit even when ♥ back is best. Your way loses that advantage I think.

 

Second, I hope to make the hand sometimes when the ♦ are 3-3... and no one holds the AJT. AJx or ATx in the correct hand (and I guess well) is good enough. For instance, lets but the ♥K and ♦AJX in west hand. When I play a ♦ to the queen in dummy and return a ♦, I will be ducking this to WEST. He has to win the ♦T and then ♦Ace and he is enplayed. It really doesn't help EAST to play the ♦J (or T) from his three card holding as if I cover, WEST is likely endplayed... So the requirement for AJT together which is only about 3.6% (can't really misguess) chance, while catching AJx or ATx is much higher, in the low 20%.

 

Ben