Guest Jlall Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 justin, I don't think pass can be right. I think it's pretty clear either opps are stealing or our side has a good save. We just have to guess which... lol. Pass is gambling they're going down vs nothing. That's hardly expectable. (Can happen of course, but I wouldn't count on it..) This argument is wrong. Even if you know 100 % that you must either bid (if they make) or double (if they're down), pass can be the right bid. I will let you figure out why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 well, it's not immediately obvious what you mean, so I aint gonna bother too much about it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikestar Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 justin, I don't think pass can be right. I think it's pretty clear either opps are stealing or our side has a good save. We just have to guess which... lol. Pass is gambling they're going down vs nothing. That's hardly expectable. (Can happen of course, but I wouldn't count on it..) This argument is wrong. Even if you know 100 % that you must either bid (if they make) or double (if they're down), pass can be the right bid. I will let you figure out why. Off hand, I'd note that while if your assumptions are correct pass can't be the best call, it also can't be the worst. So you need look at the cost of being wrong. Passing and avoiding the guess might well be the best (or least bad) option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 well, it's not immediately obvious what you mean, so I aint gonna bother too much about it simple model: given their range of hands 50 % of the time they make, 50 % of the time they go down. We will go for 300 75 % of the time, 100 25 % of the time By doubling our total point expectation is (.5*-590)+(.5*100)= -245.By passing our total point expectation is (.5*-420)+(.5*50)= -185By saving our total point expectation is (.75*-300)+(.25*-100)= -250 As you can see passing is our best action even though our save is always better than them making, and when they don't make they go down (obviously). Passing is best by a big margin too. Obviously there are more factors but this is the general idea, and can (and often does) hold true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted February 13, 2008 Report Share Posted February 13, 2008 Ok, I see what you mean. Basically, you're minimizing losses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.