MP problem 1

[gwnn]

[hv=d=s&n=sqxxhktdaqxxcqtxx&s=sjxhaqxxxdkjxcj9x]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

1♥-1♠-X-p

1NT-p-3NT

 

1NT was an interesting bid. You don't need to comment on it. Defense starts off with 3 rounds of spades. Your turn.

[Guest Jlall]

I would not play a heart to the ten. It is the percentage play for 5 tricks in the suit in a vacuum but:

 

1) LHO is less likely than usual to have 4 hearts given that he has 5 spades

2) If a heart to the ten loses we are going down 3. This will be a zero. I'm not willing to risk getting a zero such a large percentage of the time.

[helene_t]

1) LHO is less likely than usual to have 4 hearts given that he has 5 spades

But you start with the diamonds, right? If LHO shows out on the third round the percentages are back, and if he shows out on the second round even more so. I think I would play a heart to the ten if he shows out on the 2nd round but not otherwise.

[gwnn]

Helene, playing diamonds will kill our communication if we play low ♥ to the T.

[Guest Jlall]

1) LHO is less likely than usual to have 4 hearts given that he has 5 spades

But you start with the diamonds, right? If LHO shows out on the third round the percentages are back, and if he shows out on the second round even more so. I think I would play a heart to the ten if he shows out on the 2nd round but not otherwise.

Diamonds are your entries so you can't afford this. I suppose if you play a diamond to the king and LHO shows out you can finesse, but you can only play 1 round

 

edit: sry csaba already said this

[jdonn]

You could comprimise by playing Q then K of diamonds. If LHO shows out on one of those then finesse the heart right away, sacrificing a diamond trick but improving your chances at two more heart tricks. If he follows to both, just unblock the last diamond and hope hearts break. I think I would do that.

[Guest Jlall]

You could comprimise by playing Q then K of diamonds. If LHO shows out on one of those then finesse the heart right away, sacrificing a diamond trick but improving your chances at two more heart tricks. If he follows to both, just unblock the last diamond and hope hearts break. I think I would do that.

I do not like this line. Now if hearts are Jxx onside you have succeeded in losing 1 trick vs the field and are going to get a zero as well as if the HJ is off getting a zero. You are really losing even more by playing this way (ie, getting a zero more of the time). At least before if you just played DK heart to ten you broke even against Jxx onside.

[skjaeran]

I'm with Justin here. One round of diamonds, then play hearts from the top.

[jdonn]

You could comprimise by playing Q then K of diamonds. If LHO shows out on one of those then finesse the heart right away, sacrificing a diamond trick but improving your chances at two more heart tricks. If he follows to both, just unblock the last diamond and hope hearts break. I think I would do that.

I do not like this line. Now if hearts are Jxx onside you have succeeded in losing 1 trick vs the field and are going to get a zero as well as if the HJ is off getting a zero. You are really losing even more by playing this way (ie, getting a zero more of the time). At least before if you just played DK heart to ten you broke even against Jxx onside.

Well most of the time it's the same thing anyway, since I only play differently when diamonds are 1-5. I think that break would be enough to sway it toward the heart finesse, but it should be easy to calculate. It gains vs. 2/3 of the 4-2 breaks, and loses to all the 3-3 breaks. LHO would have 7 empty spaces and RHO would have 5, which makes the odds like this

 

hearts 4-2: 15*(7/12)*(6/11)*(5/10)*(4/9)*(5/8)*(4/7) = 37.9%, I gain 2/3, I lose 1/3

hearts 3-3: 20*(7/12)*(6/11)*(5/10)*(5/9)*(4/8)*(3/7) = 37.9% also, I lose all those times

 

Ouch, ok clearly since 3-3 is exactly the same probability as 4-2 in hearts when LHO is 5x1x and RHO is 3x5x (funny how that happens), I did not choose the right line. And I didn't even get to all the other heart breaks <_<

[helene_t]

I always get those squeeze problems wrong but I'll try anyway.

 

We go initially for hearts 3-3 so we can as well start with four rounds of diamonds. If we see LHO parting with a heart we just hope it was not from a doubleton/singleton, and run the hearts. Now suppose he does not part with a heart but instead with two spades, or with a spade and a club honor. This might happen if he has four hearts plus ♣AK and realizes that he cannot part with a heart. Then we can set up a club trick since the defense has only four tricks.[hv=w=saxxxxh9xxxdxcakx&e=skxxhjxdxxxxxcxxx]266|100|[/hv]

[gwnn]

diamonds were 4-2 with 2 at the spades guy, hearts were 3-3 with the jack on the right. my pard tried low to ten in a weakish field, where everyone just played ♥KAQ, for -1% (or, more rigorously, (0+100i)%).

[MFA]

I fully agree with 1NT.

[Finch]

I fully agree with 1NT.

So do I.

[kfay]

I don't.

 

Partner's making the same 3NT raise with xxx KT AQxx KJxxx and now we're getting a total 0 next to the LOL's who refuse to bid 1NT without a spade stop. Nothing would ruin my day more than this.

 

Personally I don't like to play for 0s. I hate it even more when it happens against some really weak pair who then goes 'yay we beat it!' since they only beat 1/10 of the hands they defend during the night and frankly this will happen quite a bit when I show a stopper in a suit that I only hold Jx in.

[Codo]

I don't.

 

Partner's making the same 3NT raise with xxx KT AQxx KJxxx and now we're getting a total 0 next to the LOL's who refuse to bid 1NT without a spade stop.  Nothing would ruin my day more than this.

If you are getting older, you will find a net little gimmick: If you are strong enough to play 3 NT opposite partner in such a sequence, bid 2 Spade to ask for a spade stopper.

 

The problem is that your partner wants to show several things about his hand: The point range, the shape and the stopper. But you don´t have unlimited bidding space.

 

To bid 1 NT without a stopper solves many problems, f.e. with a hand like xxx,KQxxx,xxx,AK. 1 NT is simply right for points and shape. The example hand is another hand where it works well.

 

Any other rebid wouldn´t be a kind of beauty, would it?

 

Same is of course not true for stronger hands, here you can bid 2 NT or 2 Spade to separate the strong balanced hands with a stopper from the hands without.

[Guest Jlall]

I fully agree with 1NT.

So do I.

and i

[kfay]

I don't.

 

Partner's making the same 3NT raise with xxx KT AQxx KJxxx and now we're getting a total 0 next to the LOL's who refuse to bid 1NT without a spade stop.  Nothing would ruin my day more than this.

If you are getting older, you will find a net little gimmick: If you are strong enough to play 3 NT opposite partner in such a sequence, bid 2 Spade to ask for a spade stopper.

 

The problem is that your partner wants to show several things about his hand: The point range, the shape and the stopper. But you don´t have unlimited bidding space.

 

To bid 1 NT without a stopper solves many problems, f.e. with a hand like xxx,KQxxx,xxx,AK. 1 NT is simply right for points and shape. The example hand is another hand where it works well.

 

Any other rebid wouldn´t be a kind of beauty, would it?

 

Same is of course not true for stronger hands, here you can bid 2 NT or 2 Spade to separate the strong balanced hands with a stopper from the hands without.

I wasn't aware that this post was concerned with the conventions necessary to describe this hand. Csaba's comment on the 1NT rebid makes it apparent that this isn't in their employment. If partner is strong enough to play 3NT opposite partner in such a sequence then they'll find a bid over whatever we decide to do. Frankly 3NT from the other side seems to be a par result on any sequence.

 

What happens when partner isn't strong enough to bid game and now they rattle 6 spade tricks off the top? In matchpoints this seems to be a very very very poor result opposite 2♥= or anything else logical for that matter. Playing this way it seems makes it impossible for partner to judge whether 1NT can be played profitably. In this form of scoring playing in this manner makes no sense to me.

 

Edit: It occurs to me that if partner does have a weakish hand that would be content to rest in 1NT that the auction is not likely to die there. But I still don't feel right playing this way.

[skjaeran]

I fully agree with 1NT.

So do I.

and i

Me too. Won't consider any alternative.

[jdonn]

I fully agree with 1NT.

So do I.

and i

Me too. Won't consider any alternative.

Me too, I find it to consistently be the best rebid on these hands.

[Finch]

We alert the 1NT rebid (and 2NT in the auction, say, 1D (2C) x (2NT)) as 'may not have a stop' to cater to people who think that it should show a stop in their suit.

 

Funnily enough we don't alert 1H P P 1NT as we think 'everybody' knows that may not have a full stop (although it will always have length).

[han]

Interesting Frances, because it seems to me that in the OP's auction it is much more common to bid 1NT without a stop than in the auction you gave.