Stupid Self Inflicted Bidding Problem

[nickf]

You are playing a 20 board match in a national teams championship at a top table against a poor team. You have an average plus card so far.

 

Sitting North and holding

 

[hv=d=e&v=n&s=skqt85hjdkj52ca95]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

you stupidly open 1S out of turn. East doesnt accept the bid, so you can do what you like but your partner is barred from the rest of the auction.

 

Your call and why.

 

nickf

sydney

[Guest Jlall]

I'd try 4S and hope for the best. Our hand has enough potential for me to be scared of passing or doing something like 1S or 2S.

[rogerclee]

4S seems okay to me.

 

I once opposed Ron Smith at some national event and my partner, in fourth seat, opened 1D out of turn, barring me from the auction. Ron tanked for awhile before opening a strong 1NT; he was thinking about baiting my partner into opening 3NT :P.

[pclayton]

4S looks reasonable. We can probably make it opposite 1, maybe two of the unseen hands.

[skjaeran]

I'd open 4♠ too.

[jdonn]

I'm confused. East didn't accept the bid so doesn't the bidding revert to him? Or are you saying that happened and then there are then 3 passes to our hand?

[nickf]

I'm confused. East didn't accept the bid so doesn't the bidding revert to him? Or are you saying that happened and then there are then 3 passes to our hand?

No you're right. My partner was the dealer.

 

Then it went pass (forced) pass to me.

 

Good point.

 

nickf

sydney

[kenrexford]

When in doubt, 3NT is my call.

 

A humorous note. In Gatlinburg, I did something out of turn. Little Capp decided to open 2♠ in front of me. I passed. His $artner bid 3♠ (!), passed to me. I tried 3NT.

 

Spades, of course, split 4-3 (LOL).

 

I ended up with a "double endplay" of the $artner. I two side suits, I held xx opposite Jx and Qxx opposite A10x. Small to the Jack was won by the Queen. Small back in the other was won with the 10. Jack to the Ace renewed the fun. Nine tricks.

 

The charge went to Little Capp. It turned out that the 3♠ call was based on a huge hand and, as such, very strongly invitational (the only possible meaning, as my partner was forced to pass out the auction). Plus, LC could have popped King and ended my fun.

[jtfanclub]

I'll bid 2♠.

 

Here's my wonderful logic....

 

I think a good deal of the time we would end up at 4♠. However, just because we would end up in game doesn't mean that we'd make it.

 

So, let's say that 2/3 of the time we'd end up in a 60% game, and 1/3 of the time we'd end up in a part score with no chance of game. That would mean that we'd actually make game only 40% of the time.

 

If I bid 2♠ and the other table ends up in 4, I still have a fighting chance. If I bid 4 and the other table ends up in 2, I'm dead, and probably dead doubled.

 

Of course, people who are a lot better than me are bidding 4♠, so they're probably right. Oh well.

[mikeh]

I open 4♠ as well.

 

This is probably a little safer than many imagine.

 

While most experienced opps will know that we are probably stretching, thay can't be sure that we don't have a very strong playing hand... 1♠ was very wide range. This would be tougher if we played a limited opening system (note: this is a little-known problem for forcing club methods :) )

 

We also draw comfort from RHO's pass. Partner is unlimited, RHO is limited.

 

Finally, even when this is a contract that should be getting hammered if bid slowly, the opps may be unable to double. In fact, it isn't tough to construct hands on which this bid steals the pot against a 4♥ contract.

 

Still, no 4♠ bidder is going to be happy until and unless a good dummy flops (hope it's not too good).

[han]

I had a similar but slightly stronger hand in Nashville this summer and opened 4S. Dummy was quite nice including 5-card support, scored up for a perfectly average score that felt like a big win.

[jdonn]

So, let's say that 2/3 of the time we'd end up in a 60% game, and 1/3 of the time we'd end up in a part score with no chance of game.  That would mean that we'd actually make game only 40% of the time.

What kind of conditions are those? Why can't you 1/3 of the time have a 90% game, 1/3 of the time have a 60% game, and 1/3 of the time have partscores that average to a 30% chance at making game? That means you would make game 60% of the time, and ignores the facts that you might have slam, and you might be making a good save since LHO might have a good hand. Also you are going to average more tricks on the hand, since you will have avoided showing your shape to opponents.

 

BTW I don't think opening 3NT is ridiculous. It just seems higher risk, equal reward.

[bid_em_up]

You are playing a 20 board match in a national teams championship at a top table against a poor team. You have an average plus card so far.

 

Sitting North and holding

 

Dealer: East Vul: N/S Scoring: IMP

♠ KQT85 ♥ J ♦ KJ52 ♣ A95

 

you stupidly open 1S out of turn. East doesnt accept the bid, so you can do what you like but your partner is barred from the rest of the auction.

 

Your call and why.

 

nickf

sydney

3N.

 

I do have stops in 3 of the 4 suits. If they double, I can always run to 4S.

[jtfanclub]

What kind of conditions are those? Why can't you 1/3 of the time have a 90% game, 1/3 of the time have a 60% game, and 1/3 of the time have partscores that average to a 30% chance at making game?

You certainly could.

 

But you have a 14 count with a likely worthless jack and only 5 spades. I seriously doubt that you have a 90% game 1/3 of the time bidding second hand with that. I think it's far more likely that we'd bid 4♠ normally and go down than that we'd bid 2♠ and go +2. Therefore, even if you'd end up in game more than half the time across random samples of what partner could have, that doesn't necessary make bidding game the best choice.

 

Also you are going to average more tricks on the hand, since you will have avoided showing your shape to opponents.

 

The opponents are "a poor team". If the other table gets 4♠-1, it doesn't matter to me much whether we got 2♠+2 or 4♠=, I expect to win the round either way.

[Fluffy]

I remember something like this long ago.

 

Playing with my aunt for the first and last time I opened 4 spades out of turn

 

Director knew nothing and barred ME from the bidding.

 

My aunt just opened 1♥ and then rebid 3[HE} with ♥Jxxxx :P, not a great score.

[whereagles]

Why is everybody bidding game? Do we know pard has an opener or something? I would just bid 2♠ and hope to buy the hand there.

[han]

It would be interesting to do a simulation, what undoubled contract gives you the best IMPs expectation given that RHO is a passed hand?

[Guest Jlall]

It would be interesting to do a simulation, what undoubled contract gives you the best IMPs expectation given that RHO is a passed hand?

I will put money on 4S if you actually do this...gimme some action han!

[jdonn]

It would be interesting to do a simulation, what undoubled contract gives you the best IMPs expectation given that RHO is a passed hand?

I will put money on 4S if you actually do this...gimme some action han!

But in fairness if RHO has a minimum 1♠ opener himself then he would pass and wait for you, so you can't rule that out :)

[jtfanclub]

I will put money on 4S if you actually do this...gimme some action han!

Hmmm...let's make some stipulations....

 

1. Perfect doubling of 4♠: if you make it they didn't double, if you don't they did.

 

2. No game finding over 4♠, automatic game finding over 2♠. In other words, if they can make 5♥, it gets scored as 4♥+1 if you bid 2♠ and 4♠ or 4♠X if you bid 4♠.

 

Then I'd take your action. Otherwise, I'd have to see the constraints first.

[pclayton]

It would be interesting to do a simulation, what undoubled contract gives you the best IMPs expectation given that RHO is a passed hand?

I will put money on 4S if you actually do this...gimme some action han!

But in fairness if RHO has a minimum 1♠ opener himself then he would pass and wait for you, so you can't rule that out :)

Frankly, I think ANY strong hand could pass and wait for the motherload.

 

Wait, what if I psyched a 1♠ opener out of turn? Oo.

[Guest Jlall]

It would be interesting to do a simulation, what undoubled contract gives you the best IMPs expectation given that RHO is a passed hand?

Hmmm...let's make some stipulations....

 

1. Perfect doubling of 4♠: if you make it they didn't double, if you don't they did.

 

lol.

[jtfanclub]

It would be interesting to do a simulation, what undoubled contract gives you the best IMPs expectation given that RHO is a passed hand?

Hmmm...let's make some stipulations....

 

1. Perfect doubling of 4♠: if you make it they didn't double, if you don't they did.

 

lol.

Yeah, opening at the 4 level sure looks a whole lot better when the opponents aren't allowed to X.

 

Too bad it has nothing to do with the actual problem.

[rbforster]

Frankly, I think ANY strong hand could pass and wait for the motherload.

 

Wait, what if I psyched a 1♠ opener out of turn? Oo.

Yeah against players good enough to pass their strong NT's when I've bid out of turn (hoping to double me in my guessed and overbid contract), I might have to start psyching in 3rd seat before RHO bids. That'll mix things up a bit I'm sure - kinda of like psyching in 3rd seat after P-P, but more fun since it confuses 2nd seat who was thinking about bidding...

[CSGibson]

Frankly, I think ANY strong hand could pass and wait for the motherload.

 

Wait, what if I psyched a 1♠ opener out of turn? Oo.

Yeah against players good enough to pass their strong NT's when I've bid out of turn (hoping to double me in my guessed and overbid contract), I might have to start psyching in 3rd seat before RHO bids. That'll mix things up a bit I'm sure - kinda of like psyching in 3rd seat after P-P, but more fun since it confuses 2nd seat who was thinking about bidding...

I'm 99% sure that it's a procedural penalty to start bidding out of turn on purpose to rig the auction.