Repost From Somewhere Else

[awm]

Bidding game at matchpoints only really helps if "the field" is bidding game and making. Partner's declarer-play ability isn't all that relevant -- any time partner's "the only person to make ten tricks" we will get a top regardless of who bids what game.

[han]

Bidding game at matchpoints only really helps if "the field" is bidding game and making.

Perhaps in California, but here in Wisconsin you get a great score if there are 10 tricks and you are in game while the field is not.

[skjaeran]

umm... I'm closer to bidding 4H than passing.

Couldn't agree more, I think passing is a huge error with thsi hand.

Ditto. Passing is way beyond me.

[skjaeran]

Bidding game at matchpoints only really helps if "the field" is bidding game and making. Partner's declarer-play ability isn't all that relevant -- any time partner's "the only person to make ten tricks" we will get a top regardless of who bids what game.

Well, I can tell you nobody would stop in 2♥ in a tournament around here holding that hand.

[awm]

Here are some random hands for opener. I generated these by requiring 5+♠, 4+♥, and 11+ hcp and requiring the given hand for responder.

 

(1)

♠J98742

♥AKQ5

♦Q7

♣6

 

Making 4♥ is surprisingly tricky if opponents tap declarer early. Of course a 3-3 spade break will always see you home, but otherwise it seems tough! Not clear if this hand accepts an invite. It's possible the play in 3♥ will be along different lines (ruff three minor suit tricks in hand).

 

(2)

♠KQ752

♥9754

♦Q5

♣A6

 

Even 3♥ will be difficult.

 

(3)

♠KT7653

♥Q9754

♦-

♣AK

 

We are ice-cold for 4♥. This hand would rebid 3♥ in a strong club system, but this is the normal start playing 2/1.

 

(4)

♠QJT64

♥Q954

♦A5

♣Q5

 

Even 3♥ will be a challenge on this hand.

 

(5)

♠KQ9432

♥AQ9754

♦-

♣7

 

This hand might rebid something other than 2♥ (i.e. 4♥ if that shows this hand, or 3♥ GF despite the low point-count). In any case 4♥ is cold and 6♥ has good play.

 

(6)

♠KJ7542

♥KQ54

♦9

♣KT

 

Basically 4♥ is on the club finesse, with some extra chances against sub-optimal defense.

 

(7)

♠K8643

♥AKQ6

♦QT

♣85

 

No play for 4♥. The 3♥ contract is cold, but this hand might bump to game?

 

(8)

♠JT954

♥AK654

♦K

♣86

 

Some might not open this hand. Nonetheless it offers decent play for 4♥.

 

(9)

♠KQJT642

♥AQ74

♦8

♣9

 

Cold for 4♠! It will probably make 4♥ also. Some might rebid spades on this hand.

 

(10)

♠KQT53

♥AK54

♦A

♣T98

 

4♥ is on a heart break. This hand surely accepts an invite.

 

(11)

♠KT642

♥A754

♦K

♣AK9

 

4♥ virtually cold.

 

(12)

♠Q8742

♥A964

♦K9

♣QT

 

No play for 4♥, and even 3♥ is problematic. Some might not open this.

 

(13)

♠QJ965

♥KQ64

♦K

♣Q75

 

Not much play for even 3♥.

 

(14)

♠KQ8432

♥AKQ6

♦T7

♣J

 

Cold for 4♥, and the auction is normal.

 

(15)

♠KT983

♥A9764

♦Q8

♣K

 

Makes 3♥ easily enough, but not four. Is this an accept of the invite? Perhaps not with the minor suit values.

 

Summing up:

 

4 Hands where even 3♥ is in doubt (2, 4, 12, 13).

3 Hands where 3♥ makes and 4♥ is poor (1, 7, 15). One of these probably accepts invite.

2 Hands where 4♥ is good at IMPs (6, 10) but take-it-or-leave it at MPs.

6 Hands where 4♥ is good (3, 5, 8, 9, 11, 14). Some of these might not rebid 2♥ though, especially if system allows another call (i.e. big club, gazzilli, etc).

[ArtK78]

I'd raise. I'll take my chances with a random max.

 

Meckstroth bids 4♥...

Playing against Rodwell (but not with Meckstroth) once in the GNT North American finals round-robin (first day), we had a competitive auction - we were bidding spades, they were bidding hearts. Rodwell finally bid 4♥ which we doubled for 300. As soon as the dummy hit Rodwell said that he should have bid 4♥ earlier in the auction as Meckstroth would have done. By bidding 4♥ earlier, he would have avoided getting doubled.

 

I think these bids are referred to as Meckstroth game tries. Bid game and try to make it.

[inquiry]

ZAR fit points...

 

8 hcp

2 control points

13 distributional points

4 + 2 minimum "mis-fit" points with super fit

1 point for fit spade ACE

--------

 

This comes to 30 Zar fit points (add misfit point when holding 9 card or more fit, subtract them with no fit. To get the 6 misfit points, add the greater of the two difference in legnth between offsuits. We figure partner is at least 5-4 in the majors, so we have a 4 card difference in spades. If partner is 5422, we have a two card difference in diamonds. If he is 5440 we have a three card difference in clubs, if he is 5413 we have a three card differnce in diamonds, if he is 5431 we have a two card diffference in clubs. I use the conservative 2 cards difference in minors.

 

This explains why someone would think it is closer to 4♥ than pass. BTW, i would bid 4♥s.

[gnasher]

4 Hands where even 3♥ is in doubt (2, 4, 12, 13).

The four hands were:

 

KQ752 9754 Q5 A6

QJT64 Q954 A5 Q5

Q8742 A964 K9 QT

QJ965 KQ64 K Q75

 

So that's three 5422 11-counts, each containing two doubleton honours, and one aceless, pipless 13-count containing a singleton king. How many of these hands are actually good enough to open?

[jdonn]

I would have passed, that will teach me B)

 

Closer to 4♥ than pass? So you think 4♥ is making more than half the time? That's pretty bold.

That's not what was meant (I think) :)

 

If partner accepts the invitation, then I'd expect partner to make game about half the time. If he passes the invitation, I'd expect to make 3♥ about half the time.

I guess I don't quite understand that. If 4♥ makes half the time that partner accepts, that means it makes less than half the time overall. So how does that mean, if partner was barred, 4♥ is a better bid than pass?

 

Anyway I can believe 3♥ is right, but the obviousness is really being exagerated. It's a close case, especially at matchpoints.

[Guest Jlall]

4 Hands where even 3♥ is in doubt (2, 4, 12, 13).

The four hands were:

 

KQ752 9754 Q5 A6

QJT64 Q954 A5 Q5

Q8742 A964 K9 QT

QJ965 KQ64 K Q75

 

So that's three 5422 11-counts, each containing two doubleton honours, and one aceless, pipless 13-count containing a singleton king. How many of these hands are actually good enough to open?

Agree with this, the first 3 hands are not even opening bids for most people. Hands 2 and 3 are silly (imo) but hand 1 is definitely possible to open.

 

Also I don't understand your suggestion that opener may bid 4H over 3H with Kxxxx AKQx Qx xx. Would that even really cross your mind? I'm not saying I don't believe you, I just could never see THINKING of bidding 4H with that hand. It has minimum shape with a queen extra and pretty crappy honor location. A queen extra with minimum shape when you have a 7 point range and a wide variety of possible shapes doesn't seem close to an accept to me.

 

FWIW I think your simulation argues very strongly for a 3H bid.

 

Oh and just to not be one sided if one were to throw out the horrible 11 counts they should also throw out the 6-6 hand and the 7-4 hand because I think rebidding 2H with those hands is bad.

 

Also I think these simulations IDEALLY (but its a lot of work so your way is fine too) should be done with all 4 hands so you can throw out hands where the opponents would have bid. That would probably decrease hands like 6-6 11 counts.

[han]

I really don't believe that Meckstroth would bid 4H.

[whereagles]

umm... I'm closer to bidding 4H than passing.

indeed