To transfer or not to transfer that tis the ?

[inquiry]

I did a small BridgeBrowser study across four databases ...There were 341 such hands...

I just want to emphasize the small sample size of your study. You really ought to compute and report the variance, but in any case 341 hands isn't enough to draw a firm conclusion -- which, of course, you avoided doing. Your data does, as you say, show that passing isn't clearly wrong, and may in fact be best.

 

One factor to consider is partner -- if you pass and are wrong, will partner be annoyed you didn't transfer? Palying down the middle is often good matchpoint and partnership strategy.

well, i hope you understand that there was a tremendous number of limitations on the auction i tested...

 

1) Opener had to open 1NT

2) Opener hand to be dealer

3) Opener had to have exactly 15 to 17 hcp

4) Second hand had to pass

5) Responder had to have 5332 distribution

6) Responder had to have 5 spades, none higher than the TEN

7) Responder could have any doubleton

8) Responder had to have 5 to 7 hcp

 

To get the 341 hands, I had to search 29,116,251 hands of bridge (just more than 10% of the total hands in all the brbr databases). I think the data shows that MOST people transfer, that sort of backs up what is said here. Some people choose not to transfer, with perhaps a slight tilt towards better players being more likely to pass than average players.

 

I could do more, I could test all seats -- not just dealer. I could test all 220 million plus hands, I could see if any more hands are added (the next update should be available soon I would guess, and would be about 15 million more BBO hands). But the fact is, I don't care anymore than answering the basic question of what is usually done. I would have suspected most would transfer, but I was surprized it was as high as it was (90%). Pass looks right to me, but the truth of the matter is I almost always transfer with a five card major, this hand would be the exception where I would pass.