To transfer or not to transfer that tis the ?

[jdaming]

[hv=s=s97532hq75dt98ca8]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

This may be a question primarily of style but after a 1NT - PASS- ???. When do you transfer and when do you leave them. Playing % obv. Please also give examples of where you draw the line (assuming there is one :( )

 

edited for 13 cards which is always good

edited round 2 for 13 cards it is early I can't count

[SoTired]

assuming the missing 13th card is not a spade, i still transfer. Odds are 2 to 1 that partner has at least 3 spades. Even if partner has a doubleton spade, the hand may play better in spades.

[ArtK78]

I rarely play 12 card hands (there were 11 cards before the edit - now the hand has 12).

 

In any event, I ALWAYS transfer to a 5 card major when I have less than game invitational values. Even when partner has a doubleton, the 5-2 fit often plays better than notrump. And if partner has 3 or 4 of the major, you are certainly in the right spot.

[jtfanclub]

In any event, I ALWAYS transfer to a 5 card major when I have less than game invitational values.

I do when it's spades.

 

I have bad luck when it's hearts- opponents often find it easier to find their spade contract. Depends on my strength, number of spades, vulnerability, etc. but sometimes I just pass.

 

But maybe that's just me.

[EricK]

Vulnerable I think you should seek the safest contract as down 2 will be a bad result at MP unless they have a game on. This means that transferring is the best bet, I think.

 

Non-vulnerable things change as two down undoubled mightn't be a bad score against their partscore. Transferring, especially into ♥, makes it so easy for them to find their fit. From a tactical point of view it is often better to just pass with a weak hand and only run if 4th hand doubles and RHO leaves it in.

 

The weaker your NT, the more the above applies, as the more likely it is that the hand belongs to the opps.

[pclayton]

Sorry, I have 5 spades here? Didn't notice.

 

I pass 1N at MPs.

[jdonn]

I think there is a strong expert following for passing hands like this. And I have no proof, but based on my experience I feel very very very strongly it is wrong. I will support transferring until I am pushing daisies.

[inquiry]

I did a small BridgeBrowser study across four databases (not a large enough sampling in just one). The criteria I used was a first seat opening (so no info on opponents via first seat pass) of 1NT on 15-17 hcp. The second hand passed and the third seat held 5332 with 5 spades headed by no more than the ten, and any doubleton suit. Responder also held 5 to 7 hcp to closely mimic this hand.

 

There were 341 such hands, 40 of which passed. The passers averaged 0.82 imps (35 boards) and 58.57% (5 hands). The 2H bidders average 0.24 imps (268 hands) and 54% (22 hands). This does not total 341 because there were some creative bids, 6 people bid 2C, 1 person bid 2D, and another 4 people bid 2S.

 

Trying to break it down, I looked at passing versus bidding with 5, 6, 7 hcp. I would not put a lot of faith in any of these choices due to the limited number of hands, but here is the results

 

5hcp

P = 1.68 imp, 0.00% (8 and 2 hands)

2H = 0.31 imp 85.24% (94 and 7 hands)

 

6hcp

P = 0.11 imp, x.xx% (18 and 0 hands)

2H = -0.52 imp, 47.88% (90 and 8 hands)

 

7 hcp

P = 1.43 imp, 97.62% (7 and 2 hands)

2H = 1.12 imp, 44.05% (84 and 7 hands)

 

Final contracts of 1NT and 2S earned the following averages:

 

1NT = 2.23 imps and 96.43% (25 and 2 hands)

2S = 0.36 imps and 63.97% (176 and 6 hands)

 

So as you can see, it is further competition that determines the result. But from thses limited hands, it looks like pass is not a BAD CHOICE. BridgeBrowser has 37 databases with 220,993,808 individual played hands of bridge. Of course each hands is played from 2 times (team game) to several hundred times (large tournaments). I only looked in 4 of these databases, and only when the 1NT opener was he dealer.

[Finch]

This hand is right on the border for me, and I don't mind either.

- Much stronger and you transfer because if partner breaks you are going to bid game

- Much weaker and you transfer because it's a question of limiting the damage

 

By the way, I agree with jdonn in both respects. I don't know what sort of NT opener he is, but I tend not to have a 5-card major and I never have a singleton, both arguments in favour of transferring.

[jdonn]

So as you can see, it is further competition that determines the result. But from thses limited hands, it looks like pass is not a BAD CHOICE. BridgeBrowser has 37 databases with 220,993,808 individual played hands of bridge. Of course each hands is played from 2 times (team game) to several hundred times (large tournaments). I only looked in 4 of these databases, and only when the 1NT opener was he dealer.

I'm pretty sure I know the flaw in this study. Weak or intermediate players are taught to always transfer with a 5 card major, and they will probably get worse scores regardless. I disagree with ever passing, but nonetheless it is generally advanced and expert players who do pass, and will probably get higher scores regardless.

[inquiry]

So as you can see, it is further competition that determines the result. But from thses limited hands, it looks like pass is not a BAD CHOICE. BridgeBrowser has 37 databases with 220,993,808 individual played hands of bridge. Of course each hands is played from 2 times (team game) to several hundred times (large tournaments). I only looked in 4 of these databases, and only when the 1NT opener was he dealer.

I'm pretty sure I know the flaw in this study. Weak or intermediate players are taught to always transfer with a 5 card major, and they will probably get worse scores regardless. I disagree with ever passing, but nonetheless it is generally advanced and expert players who do pass, and will probably get higher scores regardless.

There are a variety of ways to test this hypothesis. First, BRBR calculates lehmans, so I can test for lehman scores and bids.

 

Lehmans of 55+

12 passed

68 bid 2H (transfer) (85% ignoring odd bids)

none bid 2S

1 bid 2C's!!!

 

With Lehmans of 45 or lower

2 passed

29 bid 2H (transfer) (93.5% - ignoring odd bids)

2 bid 2S

1 bid 2Cs.

 

With Lehmans over 60

2 passed

15 bid 2H (88%)

 

With Lehmans under 40

2 passed

18 bid 2H (90%)

[rogerclee]

I pass.

 

Edit: Not sure that second comment I made makes any sense now in retrospect.

[jdaming]

The reason I asked was I played with 2 very good players and both gave opposite advice (when the bad result came) on very similar hands.

 

FYI: I do not know if this is a flaw in jdonn's flaw (much more likely) or I should take it as a compliment but I passed the above hand.

[bid_em_up]

pass. any form of scoring.

[pclayton]

There's more to this hand than just the 5 card major. As Frances says, when you are top of your range, you might hear a super accept and when your hand sucks, you are just trying to get to a playable spot and hold down the damage. Its only the 5-6 point hands that make passing with a 5 card major attractive to some.

 

Here's some other things to consider:

 

1. 5332 pattern - prefers to play in NT.

2. Crappy suit - also wants to play in NT

3. Honor Placement - Ax probably wants to be in NT, T98 is helpful as well.

4. Our suit is spades. If the opponents balance with 2♥ we can still compete.

 

I think all of these are important and helps support the reasons for a pass.

[bid_em_up]

There's more to this hand than just the 5 card major. As Frances says, when you are top of your range, you might hear a super accept and when your hand sucks, you are just trying to get to a playable spot and hold down the damage. Its only the 5-6 point hands that make passing with a 5 card major attractive to some.

 

Here's some other things to consider:

 

1. 5332 pattern - prefers to play in NT.

2. Crappy suit - also wants to play in NT

3. Honor Placement - Ax probably wants to be in NT, T98 is helpful as well.

4. Our suit is spades. If the opponents balance with 2♥ we can still compete.

 

I think all of these are important and helps support the reasons for a pass.

I can add to the list:

 

1) Spades will likely only play better if partner has 4 spades and a working doubleton.

2) If partner has 3 weak spades, Jxx, Qxx, Kxx, then all his points are in the other suits, meaning your side cards are working as fillers.

3) If partner has 3 decent spades, ie, AQx, KQx, AKx, etc., then the spade suit is also a source of tricks in NT.

4) You have more than 1/2 of the hcp in the deck, 21-23 (assuming a 15-17 NT). You may well make 1N on sheer power whenever partner has only 2-3 weak spades.

5) You have to make 1 less trick in 1N, than you do in 2S.

6) You may still make 1N even if the spades do not break.

 

There's more, but overall, I have found that passing this hand wins in the long run.

 

jmoo.

[mikeh]

I almost always transfer with a 5 card major, but this hand falls into the category where I think it is a tossup and I would, myself, pass.

 

While I agree with Phil's list of factors, to me the most compelling reasons to pass are:

 

1. I hold enough hcp that we have more than half the hcp

 

2. I have (some) help in all three side suits: even the diamond holding may be powerful: imagine AJ32 opposite

 

3. Partner rates to be shortest in spades, such that Kx or Qx could leave us with 4 losers in trump while we have enough values in his suits that he can establish 7 or 8 tricks in notrump.

 

4. Even when partner holds 3 spades, so that superficially spades may be better, we may take the same number of tricks, partly because of my honour location and partly because it is not inconceivable that he can establish the spades and still have a dummy entry

 

So I think that pass is probably best but I would only do it with:

 

1. topless trump

 

2. 6-7 hcp (not 5, altho it's close... gotta draw my arbitrary line somewhere)

 

3. 5332 shape

 

4. hcp in at least 2 side suits (not xxxxx AQx xxx xx)

 

Even with all these criteria, I can't say that I have run simulations or that my way is definitely better than always transferring. For one thing, my criteria are so specific that I rarely pass, so my anecdotal database is sparse ;)

[Finch]

1 bid 2C's!!!

Perhaps they were playing that 2C asked for a 5-card major, and over a 2D response 2S is to play in 2S?

 

Or that all sign-offs in 2major start with 2C?

 

Or that they thought that a 4-3 heart fit might play very well, and failing that could bid 2S as a sign-off?

[kenrexford]

2♣ is not a bad idea with this hand. If you elect to escape, you might as well elect to do so in the way that maximizes your hand value if events are favorable.

 

If you end up in 2♥, you might be in the ideal 5-3 fit. Even if 4-3, your Qxx has full weight and your doubleton is on the right side.

 

If partner bids 2♠, you might even get frisky.

 

If partner bids 2♦, and 2♠ is not a game try, great! Now the likelihood of the 5-3 spade fit is slightly greater. Opener's average expectancy of 3.66 hearts when he does not have three spades is reduced to a known 2-3. Or, partner's spade length expectation increases from 3.25 to somewhere between 3.33 and 3.66.

 

Now, obviously Opener does not have "3.33 to 3.66 spade," because he denied four and must have 2-3 spades. However, I think that the trend will be greater as against the 2-card holding.

 

I would, with the specific hand, list my preferences (and likelihood given inconsistency) as:

 

1. Pass

2. 2♣

3. 2♥

[655321]

I think there is a strong expert following for passing hands like this. And I have no proof, but based on my experience I feel very very very strongly it is wrong. I will support transferring until I am pushing daisies.

I agree with jdonn.

 

No proof, but my strong preference is always to transfer.

 

Also, not having to think on these hands means that I can save my limited brain cells for more crucial decisions.

[han]

I transfer, I draw the line at the fifth heart.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

I will make the transfer, why?

Because I will always make the transfer.

One reason, which was not mentioned

before: This rule will stop the worring,

and safe energy.

Of course you could also make up a rule,

which says pass, which would be fine as

well.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[1eyedjack]

The 2H bidders average 0.24 imps (268 hands) and 54% (22 hands). This does not total 341 because there were some creative bids, 6 people bid 2C, 1 person bid 2D, and another 4 people bid 2S.

I think you should count the 2S bidders in with the 2H bidders when counting the average score. Not perfect I agree, but less imperfect than excluding them.

[Winstonm]

One thing not discussed that I can tell is the possiblity of NTer to hold 4 or 5 spades. Even if holding 3 spades, if his shape is 5332, the opponents also have either a double 8-card fit or a 9-card fit (in clubs). The odds that they will attack our weak holdings is strong when we hold either an 8-card or 9-card spade fit and elect to play in NT.

 

I would generally almost always transfer here unless compelled by card placement and spots to do otherwise, meaning all my values in my short suit and helping spots in my 3-card holdings - something like xxxxx, Jxx, 108x, KQ.

[lexlogan]

I did a small BridgeBrowser study across four databases ...There were 341 such hands...

I just want to emphasize the small sample size of your study. You really ought to compute and report the variance, but in any case 341 hands isn't enough to draw a firm conclusion -- which, of course, you avoided doing. Your data does, as you say, show that passing isn't clearly wrong, and may in fact be best.

 

One factor to consider is partner -- if you pass and are wrong, will partner be annoyed you didn't transfer? Palying down the middle is often good matchpoint and partnership strategy.