Lead after unusual double

[paulg]

British Gold Cup semi-final.

 

[hv=d=s&v=n&s=sxxhxxxxdxxckjxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

You are South, with a partner who played in the last Bermuda Bowl, and hear the following bidding:

 

South  West   North  East

Pass   (2♠)     Pass   (3NT)

Pass   (Pass)   Dbl    (Pass)

Pass    (Pass)

 

2♠= weak

 

Your lead?

[gwnn]

Surely pard has a spade stack and we can take 5 black tricks? best looks a safe spade lead

[Finch]

partner can certainly stand a spade lead

it feels as if declarer has running diamonds

[MomoTheDog]

Partner is almost certainly asking for a spade lead.

[gwnn]

I think it's not so much what this double "means" than what is "shows": it was probably a hand that would have passed a reopening double from us. Spades very well stopped and some outside honors.

[whereagles]

in any case a spade seems clear, no?

[gwnn]

in any case a spade seems clear, no?

of course. B)

[nige1]

[hv=d=s&v=n&s=sxxhxxxxdxxckjxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

British Gold Cup semi-final.

You are South, with a partner who played in the last Bermuda Bowl,

and hear the following bidding:

South  West   North  East

Pass   (2♠)     Pass   (3NT)

Pass   (Pass)   Dbl    (Pass)

Pass    (Pass)

2♠= weak

Your lead?[/hv]

IMO ♠=10, ♥=5, ♦=4, ♣=3.

 

Declarer usually has one of two hand types

• A. Spade fit e.g. ♠ A K x x ♥ A Q x ♦ T x x ♣ A x x or
  
• B. Solidish suit e.g. ♠- ♥ A K Q T x x x ♦ Q T x ♣ A x x
  

I agree that on the auction B. is more likely

[ArtK78]

[hv=d=s&v=n&s=sxxhxxxxdxxckjxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

British Gold Cup semi-final.

You are South, with a partner who played in the last Bermuda Bowl,

and hear the following bidding:

South  West   North  East

Pass   (2♠)     Pass   (3NT)

Pass   (Pass)   Dbl    (Pass)

Pass    (Pass)

2♠= weak

Your lead?[/hv]

IMO ♠=10, ♥=5, ♦=4, ♣=3.

 

Declarer usually has one of two hand types

• 
   
   
  
• A. Spade fit e.g. ♠ A K x x ♥A Q x ♦ J x ♣ A x x or
   
   
  
• B. Solidish suit e.g. ♠- H:AKQTxxx D:QTx C:Axx
   
   
  

I agree that on the auction B. is more likely.

B is more likely? And he didn't bid over 2♠?

 

Are you sure that he played in the Bermuda Bowl?

 

Quite frankly, I find A to be unlikely as well. I would expect something more like:

 

AQTxx Ax Jxx Axx

[jdonn]

B is more likely?  And he didn't bid over 2♠?

 

Are you sure that he played in the Bermuda Bowl?

 

Quite frankly, I find A to be unlikely as well.  I would expect something more like:

 

AQTxx Ax Jxx Axx

Declarer usually has one of two hand types

I would rank spade = 10, other = 0.

[ArtK78]

I have to get my glasses changed.

 

:)

 

Still, I find it highly unlikely that declarer has a solid HEART suit, since 4♥ is likely to play better than 3NT.

 

In any event, partner should have very good spades on this auction, and the spade lead seems clear.

[pclayton]

Spade, club, spade looks like a very profitable start.

[paulg]

When asked I also said a spade is the obvious lead.

 

A team mate of the doubler then said, "can partner really have a hand that expects to beat 3NT on a spade lead?"

[ArtK78]

Why not?

 

Last night in an ACBL IMP pair game on BBO, I held AQ9xx of hearts and a couple of other cards. My RHO opened 1H and the auction proceeded 1NT-2NT-3NT. I doubled for a heart lead, figuring that it was clearly our best lead and that with so many hearts offside we had a reasonable chance of going plus if we didn't give up a trick on the opening lead.

 

The result was +500 nonvul.

[pclayton]

When asked I also said a spade is the obvious lead.

 

A team mate of the doubler then said, "can partner really have a hand that expects to beat 3NT on a spade lead?"

AKJ, xxx, AKxx, xxx is one type. Pard doesn't need to have a string of spades - frequently the double works out better with 3-4 good spades instead of 5 in a case like this.

[nige1]

When asked I also said a spade is the obvious lead.

A team mate of the doubler then said, "can partner really have a hand that expects to beat 3NT on a spade lead?"

I wondered about that but surmised that there are several common hand types where partner would like a spade lead. For example ...

• Spade stack: indicating a safe lead, hoping that bad breaks will defeat the contract e.g. ♠ A J T 9 ♥ - ♦ A K x x ♣ T x x x x
  
• Solid suit with spade entry e.g. ♠ K J ♥ x x ♦ A K Q J ♣ x x x x x
  

The double could just mean that partner has a running suit and that you are meant to guess which. IMO that is a bit far-fetched when declarer may hold a long suit too. A double seems dangerous if you are just as likely to find declarer's long suit as partner's :D Of course, if, like ArtK78, you believe that declarer will never have a long heart suit, it's possible that partner is asking for that lead :)

[ArtK78]

I don't believe I used the word "never." :D

 

In any event, it would be odd for the hand over the 2♠ bidder to double for the lead of a suit he could have bid over 2♠. Rationally, the double requests a spade lead.

[han]

Spade lead is quite clear I think.

[barmar]

Still, I find it highly unlikely that declarer has a solid HEART suit, since 4♥ is likely to play better than 3NT.

Yeah, I think it's more likely declarer has a solid MINOR suit, and controls in the other two suits. He's assuming the 2♠ bidder can control that suit, and partner's double indicates that this may not have been a good assumption.

 

Note that there's still no guarantee that you're beating this. It's like a Lightner double: if the contract can be beaten, it probably requires the lead the double requests. At IMP scoring, the value of defeating a game is more than the bonus for making a doubled game (10-12 IMPs versus 5), so it's often a good gamble.

[nige1]

I don't believe I used the word "never."  :)

 

I apologize for misrepresenting Artk78 :) In fact he wrote ...

 

Still, I find it highly unlikely that declarer has a solid HEART suit, since 4♥ is likely to play better than 3NT.

[dburn]

Would be inclined to lead a heart, unless we had a specific agreement that the double called for a spade.

 

It seems to me that partner may have doubled on a spade guard (probably the ace) and a side suit that is solid missing the ace or king (probably only five cards in length, since he did not overcall). A priori that suit figures to be diamonds, since I have fewer of those than hearts, but RHO can hear the bidding as well as I can, and he might have elected to remove 3NT doubled to a major-suit game if he had that option.

 

Could be very wrong, though. Still, so can any opening lead, especially one of mine.

[paulg]

Partner held:

 

♠KJxxx

♥AKQxx

♦x

♣xx

 

You needed to lead a heart.

[the hog]

Spade lead is quite clear I think.

Agree with this.

[the hog]

Partner held:

 

♠KJxxx

♥AKQxx

♦x

♣xx

 

You needed to lead a heart.

Just saw this after I posted. Partner is clearly a beginner. This is a 2H bid.

[dburn]

I would suggest that the term "beginner" might more aptly be applied to to someone who suggests bidding 2♥ over 2♠ than to a Gold Cup semi-finalist. If the notion is that this is a 3♥ bid, the same considerations hold.