play problem in 4S

[Finch]

You have a remarkably long auction to a not-great spot.

 

Vul against not, 28-board league match, imps converted to VPs.

 

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=s864hkj1073dk1053c3&s=sak952ha84dq6cq97]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1♣ 1♠ P 2♣

x P* P 2♥

P 3♣ P 3♦

P 4♠ all pass

 

*non-minimum

[/hv]

 

LHO leads the 8 of clubs to RHO's king.

RHO switches to the jack of spades to which LHO follows

 

Their leading methods are officially bottom from 3 or 4 to an honour, 2nd highest from 3 or 4 low, top of a doubleton. They don't know if the 10 is an honour or not. They play weak NT, 4-card majors, open the lower of 2 4-card suits.

 

Plan the play (I thought for ages, there are at least 3 sensible lines and I'm hoping someone will give a nice detailed analysis telling me which is right).

[hrothgar]

My first instinct is to play on Spades and Hearts behaving (If one breaks 3-2, it increases the chance that the other does as well)

 

1. Duck the first Spade

2. Win the (presumed) Spade continuation

3. Ruff a club

4. Lead the Jack of Hearts, playing RHO for the Queen

(A) If RHO covers, win the Ace and draw the last trump

(B) If RHO doesn't cover, lead a second heart to the Ace and draw trump

 

I admit that the double of 2♣ makes me nervous...

 

1. Win the first Spade

2. Ruff a club

3. Low Diamond to the Queen

 

Might be better, however, I'm worried about an uppercut

 

If I had to make a guess, I think that RHO is 2236

[whereagles]

I think I'd take the spade, ruff club. Then play a diamond back to the Q and see what happens.

 

If this wins, ruff a club, pull trumps and guess hearts.

 

If the ♦Q loses, a spade back is likely, and then I'd need to finesse the ♦T to dump my last club (a heart guess can only work if RHO is 3325, which is unlikely, given opps play weak NT). Finally, a heart guess comes.

 

This is probably one of your 3 lines, so I guess I'm not really answering the question. It is, however, what I'd do at table (I hardly ever tank for more than 3 mins - instinctive lines of play are usually the best ones anyway :)).

[bid_em_up]

My first instinct is to play on Spades and Hearts behaving (If one breaks 3-2, it increases the chance that the other does as well)

I think that there is a strong inference that the major suits are not breaking.

 

The missing cards at this point are the Q♠, Q♥, the AJ♦, and the AJ♣.

Even if LHO holds all these cards, its still a weak NT (assuming 12-14 range). But he didnt open a weak NT.

 

Why not? Because he is unbalanced.

 

I think LHO has to have most of these cards though, or its one ugly opening. I think spades are 1-4, and hearts are 3-2 giving LHO 1-3-4-5 (or 1-3-3-6) shape.

 

Time to go home from work, I'll think about it some more.

 

Jmoo.

[awm]

RHO is opener.

 

He is a big favorite to hold ♣AKJ on the lead and based on his double of 2♣.

 

Looking at LHO's lead, it's an awful big club. But if it's from doubleton, then RHO had AKJTxxx of club and didn't make an obvious 3♣ bid (doubling 2♣ instead). I think RHO having seven good clubs is rather against the odds. So LHO is leading from three or four small, say ♣T8x or ♣T8xx.

 

We need to assume spades are 3-2 (else we have no real chance). Especially playing four-card majors, it seems like LHO might've raised clubs on four-card support with something like 6 hcp. Combined with the "weak notrump" inference I think RHO is a favorite to hold most of the outstanding high card points, especially if the ♠J is an honest card (i.e. LHO has the queen). In particular while LHO could have a side queen or jack, I think RHO is almost marked with ♦A.

 

I'd try winning the spade and ruffing a club, then leading a diamond up. This breaks into three possibilities:

 

(1) RHO hops with the ace. He probably returns another spade. I will win this return, cash the ♦Q, play a heart to the king and cash the diamond king pitching my club loser. It's possible the jack falls under this, in which case I am cold. Otherwise, my plan will be to play opener for the ♥Q. If RHO ruffs the third diamond with the top trump (LHO is not ruffing, that would place opener with 5♦ for the 1♣ opening) then I am reduced to playing RHO for an original 3-2-2-6 and hoping the ♥Q drops.

 

(2) My ♦Q wins. In this case I will continue with a diamond to the ten. My hope is to either find the diamond jack onside or guess hearts.

 

(3) My ♦Q loses to LHO's ace. At this point RHO is more or less marked with the heart queen, and I have manufactured a diamond entry to dummy as well; barring trumps 4-1 (no play) or diamonds 6-1 (against the odds), the contract seems cold from this point.

[dburn]

I can't imagine doing anything more complicated than winning the spade, ruffing a club and playing a diamond. I can't make the hand if spades are 4-1. I won't commit myself in hearts just yet. Probably, I will win the queen of diamonds at trick four and lead my last club towards dummy. If LHO has three clubs, I will ruff and play a low diamond from the table. If LHO has only two clubs, I will take my chances - maybe he also has ♠Qxx, in which case I'm not dead.

 

I am aware that this isn't the detailed analysis for which Frances was hoping. But as someone who may have been Skid Simon once remarked, I play hands quickly because I have a genius for recognising in half a minute that I won't know what to do if I think for half an hour. And I really would rather that East didn't win the first round of diamonds and play another trump. But if he's that good, he deserves to beat me, and I hope has has the queen of hearts so that he gets his deserts (because, when push comes to shove, I am going to play West for that queen).

[lowerline]

I prefer: ♣ ruff, ♥A, ♣ ruff, ♦...

 

If RHO wins, I'm there. If LHO wins, I'm playing for the drop in ♥ & ♦.

If the Q holds, I cash ♠K and now I have to think... Does RHO hold a strong NT hand?

 

Steven

[whereagles]

Skid Simon once remarked, I play hands quickly because I have a genius for recognising in half a minute that I won't know what to do if I think for half an hour.

that must have been the quote of the year, no? :(

[Finch]

I think I'd take the spade, ruff club. Then play a diamond back to the Q and see what happens.

 

If this wins, ruff a club, pull trumps and guess hearts.

You've carefully not specified how you are getting back to hand after the second club ruff...

[Finch]

I imagine I'm a slower analyst than dburn anyway, but it took me a while to work out that I couldn't make with trumps 4-1, even if I sneaked a diamond to the queen through.

 

I also spent a while working out that I didn't know where the HQ was. Even if RHO is balanced, she could have had QJ10 xx AJx AKJxx and can easily be 3-1-4-5 or 2-2-4-5.

 

The lines I considered where

i) duck the spade and subsequently get hearts right

ii) ace of spades, club ruff, heart to the ace, club ruff, diamond, get the end position right

iii)(a) ace of spades, club ruff, diamond, if RHO ducks this, club ruff, heart, trump

iii)(B) ace of spades, club ruff, diamond taken on my right, win the next trump, queen of diamonds, then either (iii)(B)(i) heart to the king, king of diamonds, run the jack of hearts or (iii)(B)(ii) ace of hearts, heart to the king, king of diamonds hoping for one short red honour

 

I didn't consider david's suggestion of

iii)(a)(ii) spade, club ruff, diamond ducked, club ruff, diamond exit

 

although I also like it now it's been suggested (it risks a trump promotion when RHO is 3-5 in the blacks)

 

It seemed to be a balance between leaving as many options open in the red suits as possible combined with getting two club ruffs.

 

What I actually did was win the spade, club ruff, diamond to the queen (which held), club ruff, heart to the ace, top spade, diamond to the 10. This certainly worked. But then any line that doesn't involve playing LHO for the HQ will work.

 

LHO has xx xxx Jxx 8xxx and RHO QJ10 Qx Axxx AKJ10 and I don't know why LHO led the 8 of clubs (nor really why RHO doubled 2C given the 1C bid was natural, perhaps it was supposed to show extra high cards).

 

At the other table they got as far as 2S which they made with one overtrick.

[Finch]

It is, however, what I'd do at table (I hardly ever tank for more than 3 mins - instinctive lines of play are usually the best ones anyway B)).

You must have very good instincts.

 

I often find that instinctive lines of play are sensible, but further reflection improves them. I wish I played hands at the table as well as I can analyse them on these forums.

[whereagles]

You've carefully not specified how you are getting back to hand after the second club ruff...

Not carefully: sloppily.. lol. I probably I'd have to decide at the time to either guess hearts earlier than I thought or to play some diamond (prolly the K).