probe or blast

[pclayton]

If I read this table right, it says that NT will only take more tricks than spades about 1 out of 20 times? That seems incredible to me.

yeah, but in NT you need 1 trick less :rolleyes:

Obv <_<

[ArtK78]

That is not true. The scoring is match points. So you need to take the same number of tricks in notrump to succeed against those in spades.

[whereagles]

well, there's a mix-up here. don't worry. rage on :rolleyes:

[jdonn]

That's 55.3% of hands on which spades plays at least 1 trick better than NT. A ballpark estimate of the standard error is (.5)(.5)(sqrt(1/1000)) which is about 0.8%. So this is a very significant difference if you believe the setup.

If I get your table right, you say:

If you have a spade fit you score better in 55 % of the cases but worse in 45 %.

You misread the table. He is saying when you have a spade fit, spades makes more tricks than notrump 55% of the time. But notrump makes more tricks than spades only 3% of the time, and they are the same 42% of the time.

[benlessard]

Im sure that is a close call. Good declarer vs bad defenses is more likely to be able to steal a trick in Nt then in 4S. So against a weaker field the temptation to go for Nt is higher. Defender will sometimes blow a trick on lead or unable to avoid some endplay. Often the hand is in S always make 5 but in nt you have to do some work to make 5.

[han]

Seems clear to use the gadget.

[Codo]

That's 55.3% of hands on which spades plays at least 1 trick better than NT. A ballpark estimate of the standard error is (.5)(.5)(sqrt(1/1000)) which is about 0.8%. So this is a very significant difference if you believe the setup.

If I get your table right, you say:

If you have a spade fit you score better in 55 % of the cases but worse in 45 %.

You misread the table. He is saying when you have a spade fit, spades makes more tricks than notrump 55% of the time. But notrump makes more tricks than spades only 3% of the time, and they are the same 42% of the time.

If I make the same number of tricks, NT scores significant better at mps.

So 55:45 is still correct.