whereagles Posted December 11, 2007 Report Share Posted December 11, 2007 ArtK, the issue has been statistically studied a long time ago. 2♠ is the percentage bid, even if you rebid NT with a spade singleton on a regular basis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtfanclub Posted December 11, 2007 Report Share Posted December 11, 2007 ArtK, the issue has been statistically studied a long time ago. 2♠ is the percentage bid, even if you rebid NT with a spade singleton on a regular basis. Did they study what happens even when the opponents aren't barred from the bidding? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted December 11, 2007 Report Share Posted December 11, 2007 No. I mean.. I don't think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted December 11, 2007 Report Share Posted December 11, 2007 2♠ is 100% clear at any form of scoring. There is only one thing that is 100% clear - that neither passing nor bidding 2♠ is 100% clear. On a given hand, either could be the winning action. You are cofusing "clearly the best bid" with "clearly the bid that is better on every hand". The latter rarely exists in bridge and the former usually does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted December 11, 2007 Report Share Posted December 11, 2007 The only study I recall about this was more attuned to the auction 1♠-1NT. The question was: Given that opener has some 5(332) pattern, is it usually better to play 1NT here or to play 2♠? I believe the assumptions were made that responder has a balanced or semi-balanced hand with exactly two spades, and that play and defense would proceed in a double-dummy manner. The result was that 2♠ was slightly better, not significantly so. This was used as a justification for the "forcing 1NT response," countering objections that you would lose substantially when both opener and responder are balanced and you can no longer play 1NT. Note that this study has nothing to do with the auction in question for this thread. The reality here will depend upon many factors including: (1) How good is the spade suit?(2) What are the entry situations like between the two hands?(3) Does the balanced hand include a good 5-card minor that could create tricks in notrump?(4) Which contract is more likely to be misdefended?(5) How likely is partner to have singleton spade and what will happen in that situation? I very much doubt there is any study out there which postulates this exact hand for responder and tells you what the percentage action is. It's very easy to look at a flawed study designed for one purpose and try to apply it to a totally different purpose, and then get answers which aren't necessarily correct. :) For the various points, I would comment that: (1) The spade suit is okay, but will generate a lot of losers in a spade contract opposite doubleton. Something like QJT9x is much better for this purpose than AQT7x.(2) The entries are not great, but the spade ace does help substantially. We may have two entries in notrump.(3) Since I usually open 1♦ with 4-4 in the minors and will rebid 1NT with 1(34)5, the odds of a five-three club fit just went up. Opener could be 3334 (1NT often better in this case) or 2434, but all other patterns seem to include five clubs. (4) 1NT is among the hardest contracts to defend. We also get the lead up to the strong hand and conceal most of our high cards.(5) Since I routinely rebid 1NT with 1(34)5 patterns in range and raise with 3♠ and a doubleton, the singleton spade is actually fairly likely (I think it's about one in three). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick_s Posted December 11, 2007 Report Share Posted December 11, 2007 jdonn wrote that 2♠ rates to be better opposite a singleton spade. Interesting comment that. Something I hadn't considered as being desirable before. And this got me thinking about my minor suit holdings. If pard has a stiff spade, then he rates to have a 5-card club suit. I think bidding 2♠ would be more attractive if my doubleton was in clubs rather than diamonds - then I'd have a better chance of making my small trumps separately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted December 11, 2007 Report Share Posted December 11, 2007 While I disagree with jdonn's claim that we'd want to be in 2S opposite a singleton, I think 2S rates to be better more often than 1NT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted December 11, 2007 Report Share Posted December 11, 2007 Wow one never knows which of these simple looking forum OP will turn into something surprising. Really makes these forums great for players at my lower level, I really learn alot. ty posters. 19-19 votes for what I thought was a clear 2s wtp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilboyman Posted December 12, 2007 Report Share Posted December 12, 2007 Question: If, after 2S as an absolute sign-of, opponents now compete, can/will partner compete to 3S expecting 6 Spades for the 2S call? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilboyman Posted December 12, 2007 Report Share Posted December 12, 2007 Question: If, after 2S as an absolute sign-of, opponents now compete, can/will partner compete to 3S expecting 6 Spades for the 2S call?I should add 'if partner holds 3 Spades' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted December 12, 2007 Report Share Posted December 12, 2007 Can't someone run some sort of a bridgebrowser study to settle this issue? Anyway, one possible argument for passing is that you have not yet been doubled for blood. If there is a spade stack sitting over you he could just be waiting in the wings. Not saying that it tips the balance, but just thought it hadn't yet been mentioned as a factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted December 12, 2007 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2007 Can't someone run some sort of a bridgebrowser study to settle this issue? Anyway, one possible argument for passing is that you have not yet been doubled for blood. If there is a spade stack sitting over you he could just be waiting in the wings. Not saying that it tips the balance, but just thought it hadn't yet been mentioned as a factor. I have Dealmaster Pro coming in the mail and will see if it can help here. I won't reply as to my thoughts or what happened at the table for a day or two more as poll results come in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted December 13, 2007 Report Share Posted December 13, 2007 Question: If, after 2S as an absolute sign-of, opponents now compete, can/will partner compete to 3S expecting 6 Spades for the 2S call? No call in bridge is an absolute sign-off. Usually, 2♠ shows 5+ cards and 5-10 hcp. Opener can compete to 3♠ if he thinks his hand and the situation are appropriate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joker_gib Posted December 13, 2007 Report Share Posted December 13, 2007 2♠ always for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilboyman Posted December 13, 2007 Report Share Posted December 13, 2007 Question: If, after 2S as an absolute sign-of, opponents now compete, can/will partner compete to 3S expecting 6 Spades for the 2S call? No call in bridge is an absolute sign-off. Usually, 2♠ shows 5+ cards and 5-10 hcp. Opener can compete to 3♠ if he thinks his hand and the situation are appropriate. Since poster indicated 2 Spades was a 100% sign-off, I was interested if poster's partner is allowed to compete over 3 Hearts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted December 13, 2007 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2007 Question: If, after 2S as an absolute sign-of, opponents now compete, can/will partner compete to 3S expecting 6 Spades for the 2S call? No call in bridge is an absolute sign-off. Usually, 2♠ shows 5+ cards and 5-10 hcp. Opener can compete to 3♠ if he thinks his hand and the situation are appropriate. Since poster indicated 2 Spades was a 100% sign-off, I was interested if poster's partner is allowed to compete over 3 Hearts. With 10HCP and 5+ ♠ I might use NMF (prefer XYZ but rarely find anyone who plays it in MBC) to ask for 3 card support and invite game and PD's response should indicate whether he has that support and also whether he is max or min for his 1NT rebid. So, if I bid 2♠ here playing nmf, I really am not interested in game nor getting a 3♠ raise if PD is max, has 3 ♠ and a ruffing value, but that wouldn't prevent him from competing to 3♠ if he wanted to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LH2650 Posted December 15, 2007 Report Share Posted December 15, 2007 Full disclosure: I voted to pass. I ran a simulation with 500 hands to test jdonn's assertion. The constraints were that opener had 12-14 HCP and distributions of either 1=3=4=5 or 1=4=3=5. 1N made 48% of the time, and 2S made only 8% of the time. A friend suggested that 2S wrong-sided the contract, and he was correct, but playing spades from the notrump side gained only 1%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyB Posted December 15, 2007 Report Share Posted December 15, 2007 Held a vaguely similar hand today - KJ9xx Kxx Jxx Tx. 1♣-(1♦)-1♠-(P), 1NT-(P)-? Partly inspired by this thread I bid 2♠, both contracts were one off, pard didn't seem to appreciate my 2♠ rebid though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted December 15, 2007 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2007 At the table I was concerned about having two possibly wide open red suits and that PD could lose access to my ♠ via a holdup from my LHO so I having strong trumps I bid 2♠. This proved most unfortunate when PD tabled ♠9♥QJ83♦T93♣AKQ83 As the card lay, 2♠ is always down 2 on good defence and I butchered the hand for down 3 ! 1NT makes except for double dummy defence and no opps managed to find the only setting line. I am a strong believer in rebidding 1NT with a stiff only as a last resort to tell the least damaging lie to PD. Thus, with 5 good ♣ I would rebid 2♣ as opener here. At the moment I think I should pass 1NT with this hand, and especially if pick up PD's (several lately have) can have a stiff and rebid 1NT. Deal Master Pro has arrived and hopefully I'll figure out how to use it and do some sims. .. neilkaz .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted December 15, 2007 Report Share Posted December 15, 2007 Thus, with 5 good ♣ I would rebid 2♣ as opener here. Me too. (and usually I get nausea from rebidding a 5 card minor!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted December 15, 2007 Report Share Posted December 15, 2007 Held a vaguely similar hand today - KJ9xx Kxx Jxx Tx. 1♣-(1♦)-1♠-(P), 1NT-(P)-? Partly inspired by this thread I bid 2♠, both contracts were one off, pard didn't seem to appreciate my 2♠ rebid though! I think this hand is very different Mike. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted December 15, 2007 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2007 Held a vaguely similar hand today - KJ9xx Kxx Jxx Tx. 1♣-(1♦)-1♠-(P), 1NT-(P)-? Partly inspired by this thread I bid 2♠, both contracts were one off, pard didn't seem to appreciate my 2♠ rebid though! I think this hand is very different Mike. Yes in this hand, there's no concern about ♦ but maybe a bit about ♥ or even ♣ but I prefer to just pass PD's 1NT and also let the lead come to him needing only 7 tricks, IMHO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted December 15, 2007 Report Share Posted December 15, 2007 Whether rebidding 1NT with a singleton is a good idea on certain hands may be a function of whether partner is expected to pull it back to the suit in which you hold the singleton on only a 5 card suit. On the other hand, whether you should pull the 1NT back to a 5 card suit may be a function of the hand types containing singleton support on which partner would rebid 1NT. I am not sure which of those issues should be decided first, but it occurs to me that on neilkaz's actual hand I would be more inclined to rebid 2C than 1NT if partner is expected to rebid 2S on a 5 card suit (over 1NT), and more inclined to rebid 1NT than 2C if partner will only pull from 1N on a distributional hand. It may be difficult to factor in suit quality to a simulation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted December 15, 2007 Report Share Posted December 15, 2007 2♠ is definitely the percentage bid Absolute bullshit!This is very close either way. If my pd opened 1NT 12-14, I would transfer to S. This situation is analogous, but my pd will not have 3 card S support here unless 3334 or other weak S good other suited hands, so I am passing 1NT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronald_21 Posted December 15, 2007 Report Share Posted December 15, 2007 Last night I did a simulation (5000 hands) with the 12-14 hand holding 1 to 3 spades, 2 to 4 hearts, 2 to 4 diamonds and 4 or 5 clubs. It appeared that there was not much difference between 1NT and 2S if partner would never raise 1S with a 3-card spade support. Obviously the more partner raises 1S with 3-card support, the more 1NT becomes the superior contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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