Rebid 2S after 1C-1S-1NT (12-14) ?

[neilkaz]

South's hand

[hv=d=w&v=b&s=saqt76ht52dj4c975]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

In MBC last night playing ordinary 2/1 GF w/nmf so 2♠ is a 100% signoff. There was no discussion with pickup PD as to whether he commonly gives 3 card raises of responder's majors, if that affects your vote here. Strong NT so the 1NT rebid shows 12-14.

 

The bidding went P-1C-P-1S-P-1NT (12-14)-P and now it is South's 2nd call.

 

Would you make a different choice if the scoring was MP rather than IMP ?

[gwnn]

Just bid 2♠ - the contract that rates to be worse than 1NT only if pd has a singleton, which he should only seldom have (particularly a pick up pd).

[CSGibson]

I'm a big fan of 2 spades when all of your points are in one suit, as shown here. On a five-bagger with more diffuse HCP, I pass.

[whereagles]

2♠ of course. It's the percentage bid.

[ArtK78]

I used to always bid 2♠ on these cards. But I don't anymore. This is close, but I will pass.

 

My partners will raise my spade bid with any excuse. And if my partner has 3 spades, it is not clear that spades will play better than notrump. When partner has 2 spades the same can be said - it is far from clear that spades will play better than notrump. And if partner does have a singleton spade - which seems to happen more and more frequently recently - spades will rarely play better than notrump.

 

If the suit were more "suit" oriented - KQT9x, for example - then 2♠ would be clear.

 

Pass is clearer at matchpoints than at IMPs.

[mike777]

I must admit I thought this was a wtp at MP or IMP.......2S.....

 

I do not have stoppers in 3 suits...partner may have stoppers in none. :P

 

I do not think it is standard for partner to raise spades on "any excuse". That sounds like an alert to me.

[nick_s]

I'm returning to bridge after a 25 year hiatus, so I'm unsure about the current consensus on whether you should raise on 3 card support with a ruffing value.

 

Personally, I think you should, so I'm passing. FWIW, I also think it's ok to rebid 1NT with a stiff spade. I'd rather do this than rebid a ropey 5 card club suit for example.

 

I'm much more interested in learning about the way things are done now, than in trying to impose my own views on the world - that usually doesn't work out so well ;). So thanks for the great topic.

[jdonn]

Just bid 2♠ - the contract that rates to be worse than 1NT only if pd has a singleton, which he should only seldom have (particularly a pick up pd).

I think 2♠ rates to be better ESPECIALLY opposite a singleton spade. That gives you several more tricks than your hand was supplying in notrump.

[kenrexford]

I was surprised to find out that my vote for 2♠ broke the existing tie. Weird.

[Guest Jlall]

2S

[MickyB]

Just because I like to disagree...

 

Pass has more going for it at IMPs (+90 against +110/140 is only an imp or two. At MPs it could be massive, particularly with some EW pairs going one off).

 

Your hand may supply more tricks in a 5-1 spade fit, but so will your opponents' hands. If you had the ♠9 I'd better understand Jdonn's comment.

 

I definitely bid 2♠ at MPs. At IMPs, it depends on our style for a 1NT rebid.

[foo]

Just bid 2♠ - the contract that rates to be worse than 1NT only if pd has a singleton, which he should only seldom have (particularly a pick up pd).

I think 2♠ rates to be better ESPECIALLY opposite a singleton spade. That gives you several more tricks than your hand was supplying in notrump.

I agree with josh's reasoning here.

 

2S. Your hand is much better for ♠'s than NT.

 

...and Opener should not raise unless they have significant extras. All of:

1= 3 card support

2= a ruffing value. Strongly preferred to be a stiff or void.

and

3= 14 excellent or 15 reasonable HCP.

[Edmunte1]

2♠ is definitely the percentage bid

[Codo]

2♠ is definitely the percentage bid

Right now it is the 50 % percentage bid. 14:14 votes.

 

Like others, I was used to bid 2 Spade on this hand with much thought in the past. But I gave it up, because i remembered too many good 1 NT contracts and too many bad 2 Spade contracts.

[gwnn]

Surely you appreciate the difference between "the bid that is going to get the best results in the long run" and "the bid that is most favored by BBF voters". The general principle of "wisdom of the crowds" does not necessarily apply here.

[mcphee]

2S strikes me as best. I recall reading a note on this problem from a well know player which stated the 5-2 fit plays approximately 70% than 1NT will. If you care going to deal with partner holding only 1S that is just too bad. 1S is not a regular situation.

[Finch]

I recall reading a note on this problem from a well know player which stated the 5-2 fit plays approximately 70% than 1NT will.

I hate this type of analysis, you can't possibly say that "the 5-2 fit will play better" as a general rule, without asking

- what the combined point count of the two hands is

- what responder's hand looks like, both HCP and shape

 

The hand as given looks like a 2S bid to me.

 

I'm returning to bridge after a 25 year hiatus, so I'm unsure about the current consensus on whether you should raise on 3 card support with a ruffing value.

 

Personally, I think you should, so I'm passing.

 

On this type of hand, I would have thought 1NT will often play just as well as 2S when partner has 3-card support; it's when he has only two that 2S is more likely to be right.

 

The times I don't pull 1NT with a weak hand and a 5-card suit are when I have lots of stuff outside the long suit, so it's only being used to stop oppo running too many tricks in it.

[pclayton]

Pass or 2♠ - I don't have a strong opinion. Spades could be a source of tricks in NT, or it can simply act as a stopper in a 7 trick contract. We have roughly the balance of the deck, so I don't mind playing 1N when we have a 5-2.

 

Obviously, we'll take a few trump tricks in spades, but so will the opponents B)

[jtfanclub]

South's hand

[hv=d=w&v=b&s=saqt76ht52dj4c975]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

I pass in both...

 

I'm not convinced that spades will be one trick better. If I was certain that a spade rebid would end the auction, I'd probably bid 2♠.

 

Unfortunately, I have 7 hcp, partner has 12-14. I have a fear of "too quiet" when my opponents have half the hcp and yet aren't bidding. For example, my RHO could have a club suit and opening count, and nothing to bid over 1♣ or 1NT...which doesn't mean that he'll stay quiet over 2♠. My LHO could have long spades and opening count but unable to say anything over my 1♠ bid. If I pass 1NT, RHO doesn't get another shot and LHO may not have a call over 1NT. If I bid 2♠, the hand that is short in spades may X, and their partner will likely have a leave-in or a suit to bid.

 

2♠ gives them an extra shot, which I don't think is a good idea with the points evenly distributed. I don't think the risk/reward is worth it here.

[awm]

I'd pass 1NT here. Of course, this is in context where partner will normally raise with three spades and a side doubleton.

 

The ace of spades makes a big difference to me here. It's a guaranteed entry in notrump if partner has singleton and makes it much more likely we can run the spades opposite a doubleton (i.e. if partner has Jx or xx we have some shot at running the suit in notrump, whereas KQTxx would always be vulnerable to a hold-up by opponents).

 

While it may be true that our hand will "produce" another trick in 2♠ fairly often, we will also often have more losers. For example, say partner has two small spades and RHO has Kx. In spades, we will take three spade tricks but must lose two, and this is basically unavoidable. In notrump we only take two spade tricks, but it's quite possible we will never get around to losing any spade tricks. Of course, 2♠ is also one level higher so even if it plays a trick better that's not necessarily a win. And 2♠ is easier to double and easier to defend correctly with all our non-spade high cards visible in dummy and the opening lead coming through.

 

To bid 2♠ with a five-card suit I'd want something with better spots and no ace, such as KQT9x of spades, where the hold-up can kill the suit in notrump, and our losers in the spade suit are likely to be losers in notrump also (i.e. top tricks).

[kenrexford]

I would never want to play 1NT because I hate when I have to decide between hooking the second time and finding out that RHO ducked the first time (net of one trick for me, that bastard!) or rising and taking two instead of four tricks. I hate that, so I bid and take away that problem. LOL

[whereagles]

The general principle of "wisdom of the crowds" does not necessarily apply here.

Indeed. The prime counter-example is, however, the majority of people voting for Bush.

[hrothgar]

The general principle of "wisdom of the crowds" does not necessarily apply here.

Indeed. The prime counter-example is, however, the majority of people voting for Bush.

The "Wisdom of Crowds" only works if individuals are making independent decisions.

 

If you start correlating the behaviour of large numbers of decision makers the system breaks down.

 

The US election system isn't necessarily a rejection of the basic concept. Rather, the necessary conditions for success aren't present.

[Fluffy]

2♠ is 100% clear at any form of scoring.

[ArtK78]

2♠ is 100% clear at any form of scoring.

There is only one thing that is 100% clear - that neither passing nor bidding 2♠ is 100% clear.

 

On a given hand, either could be the winning action.

 

If the spade suit were QJT9x or even KQT9x, then 2♠ would be 100% clear at any form of scoring. These are suits which will produce several tricks if the suit is trump but may take zero or one trick if played in notrump.

 

If you had 6 spades, then 2♠ would be 100% clear (although not necessarily the winning call).

 

Suits like the one in the given hand - AQT76 - are a problem. This suit will always produce one or two winners in notrump, but it is far from clear how many winners the suit will produce if played as the trump suit. Ignoring the possibility that partner has a small singleton spade, the suit may produce unavoidable losers if it is the trump suit which do not exist if the hand is played in notrump.

 

In my regular partnership, we freely raise 1♠ to 2♠ on any reasonable three card spade holding if the hand is not 4333. So I am not too worried about missing a 5-3 spade fit. On the other hand, we will often rebid 1NT with a singleton spade when the rebid is not appetizing (1345, for example) (and for those of you who would open 1♦ on that distribution, assume that you have much better clubs than diamonds).

 

The suit quality is right on the cusp of whether to bid 2♠ or pass 1NT - and that is reflected in the voting on this problem - 50-50.

 

I tend to pass on the given hand, but I will say that it is close.