3NT play problem

[Trumpace]

You are in 3NT after the sequence 2NT - 3C - 3S - 3NT (opps are silent)

 

LHO leads the Club 5 and you see:

 

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sj52hkq63d9532ct7&s=s9873haj4dakjcak8]133|200|Scoring: IMP

Lead: ♣5[/hv]

 

You try the ♣T, but RHO covers with the J and you win in hand.

 

What is your plan?

[jtfanclub]

My entries suck.

 

 

Punch down the AKJ of diamonds. Works whenever the diamonds are 3-3 or the Q or T is doubleton. Don't let on that my spades are so bad or my hearts so good.

 

[goobers]

I would unblock the hearts and hook the diamond, but this is so brainless that it's clearly wrong.

[vuroth]

I would unblock the hearts and hook the diamond, but this is so brainless that it's clearly wrong.

The finesse seems like the natural course.

 

The only other option I see is to just cash AKJ diamonds. Maybe the queen falls. Maybe diamonds split 3-3. The only reason I can see to try this line is that you only need 1 entry. I have no idea whether the odds are better for this, or for just finessing.

 

If you had 2 entries, finesse then split in diamonds would make much more sense.

[jtfanclub]

The finesse seems like the natural course.

 

The only other option I see is to just cash AKJ diamonds. Maybe the queen falls. Maybe diamonds split 3-3. The only reason I can see to try this line is that you only need 1 entry. I have no idea whether the odds are better for this, or for just finessing.

There's another advantage to the cashout- it's less likely the opponents will be able to signal each other. If you go with the finesse, you have to take all four hearts right off, since you'll never get to dummy again. That makes it likely that RHO will be able to signal for a spade switch. If you just cash out, then hopefully they'll lead another club.

 

The big advantage to the finesse is, if it works you have 9 tricks. If you cash, and the diamonds split 3-3, they might still be able to take 4 spade tricks before you get back in.

 

So, if you could guarantee a club return, cashing has better odds. If you know they'd return a spade, it seems likely that the finesse is better.

[whereagles]

I've checked 3 lines:

 

- overtake ♥J, finesse ♦J + cash ♦AK

- finesse ♦J

- cash ♦AK

 

Sucess probability is something like 45/50/65, so cashing the top diamonds seems best. At table I couldn't make the calculations, and I'd probably either take line 2 or 3.

[Finch]

Playing diamonds from the top is much better odds than taking the diamond finesse. Either way picks up singleton Q or singleton 10. Excluding those holdings,

 

finesse = 50%

playing from the top = 3-3 or 10x or Qx = 65%

 

The complication is the chance that they win a diamond and cash four spade tricks. It will be clear to a player who wins the third round of diamonds with the queen that you had a finesse available, and thus it's implausible that you are now wide open in clubs. However, they won't know if you have 9 tricks or not at that point, and opening up spades may be expensive.

 

I don't believe LHO has AKQ10 (or AKQx) of spades. The other layouts where the spades are cashing are

xx, Qx, Kx or Ax on our left (11%)

small singleton on our left (1.2%)

 

those combined anyway seem smaller than the additional chances in diamonds.

 

I don't know what the chance of both 4 spades cashing + the opponents actually cashing them is. Personally I think it's low enough that I would play the diamonds from the top, but I'm open to argument.

[whereagles]

thx, i had made a mistake in addition in my scenario 3. odds are ~65%, yes.