what do you bid?

[gizzydrop]

At a recent event i held...

 

♠xx

♥xx

♦AKQJT

♣KQ9x

 

3♥ on your left (preemptive), pass pass to you....love all at teams, what are your choices and what would you do?

[Blofeld]

I think I pass. Not strong enough to demand action, and both the doubleton majors are putting me off doing anything.

 

Other options, in my descending order of preference, are 3NT, 4♦ and double. 4♦ is the most likely to lead to a positive, but 3NT has the advantage that we may make game.

 

Edit: Actually, I think that's a little harsh on double. Double was my first reaction when I saw the hand; it didn't take much thought to convince me that pass was better. But double essentially loses when partner bids spades, and goes OK otherwise. While partner bidding spades is the most likely outcome, it's definitely possible for something more favourable to happen. Compare to 3NT, which requires partner to have both a heart stop and some other stuff to have any chance of making.

[Edmunte1]

The normal options are pass and 3NT, and it's a matter of luck. Today i feel lucky , so 3nt it is

[brianshark]

If you double, partner will go out of his way to bid spades. Even sometimes holding a longer minor or most hands with a moderate heart stop and 4 spades. So I won't double.

 

Unless RHO tanked, I think I'll bid 3NT, in tempo and with as much confidence as seems appropriate. Pard is favourite to have a heart stop and a trick or two. If I hear a double, I'll run to 4♦.

[mikeh]

Pass

 

Despite the previous posts, and despite the obvious fact that we could be getting robbed, this isn't that close. That doesn't mean I am happy... this hand screams bad news, but the fact that I'd like to bid (in one sense) doesn't mean that I 'should' bid.

 

I am not against bidding 3N with no stopper, but this doesn't look like the hand for that call.

 

Double is silly with xx in spades: the suit partner will bid 80% of the time

 

4♦ makes me feel ill: this is not the hand type on which I want to see partner raise to 5♦, and if I am not looking for game, wtf am I doing in the auction?

 

I tried a small simulation: this is not a precise situation, since we all have different criteria for a white v white 1st seat 3♥, and we have to judge which hands are acceptable for the next two passes. I went through 24 hands on which I thought an opening 3♥ was plausible and where it seemed to me that the vast majority of reasonable players would pass in the next two seats. The result was in keeping with my analysis above (of course, that could be influenced by bias): pass was the winning or break-even call on 17 hands, while double worked best only once and 3N worked 6 times. Even assuming that 3N wouldn't be doubled (and most of the time, it wouldn't be), this is not good enough even at imps: it wouldn't be good enough red, and surely isn't when white.

 

In determining a break even proposition, I included a couple of hands on which any action would likely result in going down, undoubled, while 3♥ made... going down either 150 or 100... rho being unable to double because 3N might have been on an entirely different hand: say a long, running minor instead of only 5 diamonds.

[mikegill]

Agree with pass in this case, except maybe with a partner who leans strongly toward bidding 3n with a good stopper, even with 4 spades, in which case I'd X.

 

If you make the KQ9x of clubs AJ9x, I think bidding 3nt is probably right. This club suit is so bad for 3n when we need to take our tricks fast, because a majority of the time partner doesn't have the A. We're already playing him for a stopper - playing him for both a stopper and the cA seems a little deep.

[Halo]

3NT

 

All non vul, I'm not being talked out of game.

 

They could take the first seven and another one, and I'd be -200. I can live with that.

[whereagles]

One of those typical "unbiddable" hands after a pree. I bid 3NT, hoping that pard has his expectancy of 9-10 hcp.

[cjames]

I agree with Halo and whereagles, 3NT. But not an easy one.

[downagain]

I think partner needs a lot if we wanna make 3NT. And as this hand is too balanced I will just pass.

Maybe we missed game.. but that's why people preempt.

[Codo]

For 3 NT to make against perfect defence, pd needs someting like all three missing aces, or a double stopper in both majors. This is possible.

Maybe as possible as the great spaghetti monster or a meteor destroying the new car of your neighbour.

Okay a making 3 NT is a better chance, but still too remote to bid for me.

[foo]

At a recent event i held...

 

♠xx ♥xx ♦AKQJT ♣KQ9x

 

(3♥) on your left (preemptive), pass pass to you....love all at teams, what are your choices and what would you do?

X'ing or bidding 3N To Play is sick.

 

The Logical Alternatives are pass or bidding 4N asking GOP to pick a 5m contract.

(If GOP has length and stops in both Majors, they can pass 4N)

 

The 3H preempt has a traditional range of 4-9 HCP. They are likely at the top half of this range given the circumstances (1st Chair all Vul at IMPs).

 

That means 22, 23, or 24 HCP are likely accounted for; giving GOP 8-9 HCP, maybe 10 HCP, as their likely "fair share" HCP holding.

GOP needs to have 3 good cards or 2 good cards + a useful stiff or void for you to make 5m.

 

If you think pard is > 1/3 of having the right cards, bid 4N.

Else pass.