Free Posted November 24, 2007 Report Share Posted November 24, 2007 You hold the following hand:[hv=d=e&v=e&s=sxxxhaxdktxxxcxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] RHO starts the auction:1♠ - pass - 2♥ - 4♦4♥ - 5♦ - 6♥ - passpass - ? Do you sacrifice or not? If hesitations matter (hidden): Your partner thought a while before bidding 4♦, and there was a little pause before the 6♥ bid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted November 24, 2007 Report Share Posted November 24, 2007 Why on Earth would I expect 6♥ to make? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjames Posted November 24, 2007 Report Share Posted November 24, 2007 Nope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr1303 Posted November 24, 2007 Report Share Posted November 24, 2007 Is this a lead problem? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skjaeran Posted November 24, 2007 Report Share Posted November 24, 2007 This entirely depends upon what kind of opponents I'm playing against. vs competent opps I'd be 90+% sure they're making 6♥, and would save without a doubt. There's no reason to except any defensive trick from partner on this auction. One opponent surely is void in diamonds. Playing against not so strong opponents this is another matter. I'd be more reluctant to save then. But it still looks like a making slam to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted November 24, 2007 Report Share Posted November 24, 2007 Why bid 5D ? 2 strategies i suggest you. 1 You bid 6 directly wich clearly suggest taking a further sac. Partner will X with 1 and pass with 0 or 2. If the X come back to you you pass with 1 and take the sac with 0. If partner pass then you pass with 2 and X with 0 or 1. After your double partner will pass with 2 and sac with 0. By bidding 6D you suggest to your partner that his AD is not cashing. This should get you fairly good result. 2 You pass. If the slam bidding of your opponenent is convincing you take the sac. This is a paradox. Your 7D is purely bid based on the expectation that the opps make their slam. So why not let them more room for their slam bidding, the more accurate they get the better its for you. 3 If you dont play the 1st method. you still can bid 6D directly in the hope they make a mistake. (bidding 6 when 6 isnt there or not bidding 6 when 6 is there).Taking the sac after the direct 6D is inconsequent with the previous action since youre not getting profit for their possible mistake. IMHO bidding 5D is lame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foo Posted November 25, 2007 Report Share Posted November 25, 2007 Trust GOP. They are supposed to have at least something like AQJxxxx in ♦'s and a side stiff or void for their 4D Jump Overcall. This means either one or both of EW are void in ♦'s, and 6H rates to make. ♠xxx ♥Ax ♦KTxxx ♣xxxhas 7 losers given that you are not losing any ♦'s If GOP can cover 2 of them, you are -5 in 7DX.Since we are White vs Red, 7DX -5 is -1100, vs 6H making for -1430 for Us.Even if GOP can only cover 1 of your losers, you are only -1400 in 7DX. Bid 7D in tempo.If CHO does not have their 4D bid, you discuss it civilly at the break. I also agree with the post that said bidding only 5D was too conservative.You should have had all of the above thoughts on the previous round and bid 6D or 7D at your 1st opportunity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halo Posted November 25, 2007 Report Share Posted November 25, 2007 No sacrifice. Hope we have a second trick outside diamonds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted November 25, 2007 Report Share Posted November 25, 2007 I voted no sac, but I am having second thoughts. If partner has something like ♦AQ to seven and bust, then they are making 6H and you are going for 1100 in 7D (maybe 800 if there is a dummy reversal in a black suit, but I would not bank on that). So you reckon to gain 8 IMPs compared with their 1430. On the other hand if it is a phantom, then let us say you make one more trick in 7D, so you are going for -800 instead of taking +100 against a par of 650. So you were about to gain 13 IMPs and instead lose 4 IMPs against par, an overall chuck of 17 IMPs, roughly double the potential gain. So if you think that there is a 1/3 or better chance of beating 6H then you are better off defending. If you factor in the possibility of partner having an 8th Diamond or otherwise only going for 800 in a case that does not add to your defensive prospects, then the break-even probability goes up a bit, but it is still below 50%. Opposite a disciplined partner whose 4D bid can be relied upon within close tollerances you may be able to bid 7 more confidently. Opposite my partner I would confidently expect 6H to make, so I probably should be bidding 7. I think that partner's hesitant 4D bid suggests that he does not have a middle-of-the-road hand for the bid. As the justification for bidding 7D relies on his having a middle-of-the-road 4D bid I suppose that the hesitation suggests passing. Being UI I suppose I am obliged to bid 7D, but I would be open to dissenting opinions on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foo Posted November 25, 2007 Report Share Posted November 25, 2007 The hesitation was before the =6H= bid, not by GOP. We are allowed to take inferences from the opponents. :( OTOH, in this case IMHO there is no need to. Trust GOP to have their bid and use logic accordingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted November 25, 2007 Report Share Posted November 25, 2007 The hesitation was before the =6H= bid, not by GOP.What part ofYour partner thought a while before bidding 4♦ leads you to the conclusion that partner bid in tempo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted November 25, 2007 Report Share Posted November 25, 2007 IMHO bidding 5D is lame. That's only, and not more than, your opinion. Which, besides, is quite debateable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted November 25, 2007 Report Share Posted November 25, 2007 7 over 6 @ imps with a balanced hand and the ace of trumps? maybe next time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted November 25, 2007 Report Share Posted November 25, 2007 IMHO bidding 5D is lame. That's only, and not more than, your opinion. Which, besides, is quite debateable. 5♦ shows a fit, which is what I have and sometimes the opps stop in 5♥ afterwards. I'll pass 6♥ in hopes (likely vain hopes) that the opps have a loser in a black suit and note that with my 33 in blacks, I don't expect my hand to ruff anything and if PD has only 7♦ we may be -5 or -1100 in 7♦x so we save only 330 if they make vs a disaster if they get set, in which case -800 is far worse than +100. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted November 25, 2007 Report Share Posted November 25, 2007 neilkaz, your odds actually make a case for sacrificing :) Still, the main hint is LHO hesitating... 6♥ might be more of a lucky shot. However, if 4♦ is a pure pree, the sacrifice is good. I guess it kinda depends on pard's style. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beatrix45 Posted November 26, 2007 Report Share Posted November 26, 2007 <_<7♦. I think you have to sac at IMPs at this vul. You might have bid more diamonds earlier. By passing, you are betting everything on setting 6♥. Indeed, once in a while, the 7♦ save may go for less than the game. Besides, they may bid 7♥. I don't see that the various hesitations mean anything significant. These are difficult hands, and they take some time to try to figure out. Try to win at the table, not in the committee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted November 26, 2007 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2007 My partner sacrificed while I was ready to lead my singleton ♣ (in my mind ofcourse)... 6♥ could be defeated (tnx to the ♥A), 6♠ on the other hand was undefeatable. At the other table they scored 1430, so we still won some imps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted November 26, 2007 Report Share Posted November 26, 2007 Yay, partner being on lead is a significant plus point for passing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foo Posted November 27, 2007 Report Share Posted November 27, 2007 The hesitation was before the =6H= bid, not by GOP.What part ofYour partner thought a while before bidding 4♦ leads you to the conclusion that partner bid in tempo? The OP's hidden comment was "little pause before the 6♥ bid" No comment was made about the tempo of the 4♦ bid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted November 27, 2007 Report Share Posted November 27, 2007 just out of curiosity 7D X was down how many ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted November 27, 2007 Report Share Posted November 27, 2007 The hesitation was before the =6H= bid, not by GOP.What part ofYour partner thought a while before bidding 4♦ leads you to the conclusion that partner bid in tempo? The OP's hidden comment was "little pause before the 6♥ bid" No comment was made about the tempo of the 4♦ bid. The hidden text currently statesYour partner thought a while before bidding 4♦, and there was a little pause before the 6♥ bid To my recollection this is the same as it was when I originally responded. Conceivably it was edited since my post and your response to mine, and then edited back again. I judge it unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foo Posted November 27, 2007 Report Share Posted November 27, 2007 I stand corrected and apologize for my mistake.(I only highlighted the lines below the warning as is tradtitional until you made your immediately previous post. Then I highlighted the entire post to find out what was going on.) OTOH, in the context of the actual question of the OP, we are not allowed to draw any inference from CHO's hesitation. We can from an opponent's. We =have= to play CHO as Having Their Bid. Then use our best Bridge Judgement to decide what to do.If CHO's potential UI is blatent, then we have the additional burden of having to not choose any Logical Alternative that might be suggested by the UI as long as there is any other LA to choose. In short, if CHO bids in tempo or close enough to it, you get to use your judgement.If not, then you have to decide what their hesitation might imply and then =choose something else if it at all makes sense to do so.= So if CHO's pause suggests not sacrificing in 7D, you now =must= sacrifice in 7D if there is any chance that a significant number of your peers as players would take the sac. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianshark Posted November 27, 2007 Report Share Posted November 27, 2007 In situations like this, can you leave the table and chat to a director to ask one bid or the other would be what will be ruled as being suggested by the hesitation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david_c Posted November 27, 2007 Report Share Posted November 27, 2007 In situations like this, can you leave the table and chat to a director to ask one bid or the other would be what will be ruled as being suggested by the hesitation?That would put the TD in a rather difficult position, and he should probably refuse to answer: he is not able to give a "final" ruling at this point, since rulings are supposed to be made after proper thought and consultation, and his initial impression may well be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted November 27, 2007 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2007 just out of curiosity 7D X was down how many ? -5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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