Unlucky, Random or Stupid?

[catch22]

[hv=d=n&v=b&s=sxh97xxxdxckqjxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

1S-P-1NT-P

3NT*-P-?

 

3NT - 18-20 balanced

 

What would you bid? How do you rate 4H?

 

If anyone can run a simulation I would be interested in the relative merits of contracts 3NT, 4H and 5C

[Walddk]

Hands like these (I am referring to opener's strong hands) made the Italians invent Gazzilli. Without it we are pretty much on a guess over 3NT. If partner has ♣A, 3NT rates to be a fine contract. If he does not have it, 3NT is likely the wrong spot (unless he has three small and the ace comes down in two).

 

3NT, 4♣, 4♥ and 5♣ are all possible contracts, and I am not sure what the best approach is here. Anything could turn out to be good/bad.

 

How do you rate 4♥? As an option and not silly at all.

 

Roland

[gwnn]

pass, 4♥ and 5♣ are equally bad :rolleyes: With 5♣ somewhat worse. I would have passed at the table.

[brianshark]

I think I would bid 5♣ at the table. I reckon it rates to be the best spot, though I've no simulations or anything to back that up.

[Finch]

Hands like these are why lots of people - not just the Italians - have invented various artificial continuations.

 

If partner really has 18-20 balanced - and not long solid(ish) spades - I would strongly expect that one of 4H and 5C is, on balanced, almost always at least as good as 3NT. The problem is that we have no bid that says to partner "I have 5 hearts and 6 clubs, please choose the right game"

 

Playing Acol I would have stretched to a 2C bid over 1S, I think.

 

If partner is forced to bid 3NT on, say, AKQxxx Ax KQx xx because he doesn't have a forcing spade bid, that will change the odds on bidding.

 

Anyway, none of 4H, 5C or pass is silly. I don't like 4C unless you think it's forcing. I think I prefer 5C to 4H but a simulation here would be helpful.

[whereagles]

6 losers opposite an expectancy of 5 to 5,5 cover cards. If anything, this is slam territory.

 

If pard were to take 4♣ as a strong, forcing bid, definitely bid that. Else just bid 5♣ and play there. Incidently, most textbooks suggest pulling 3NT on hands with long suits without the ace.

[brianshark]

I don't think I could find myself bidding 4♥. The suit quality is just not great and it's fairly easy to get forced. In my opinion, I think it's the weakest option.

[Codo]

In any system I would bid 4 Club now. Yes pd could have hands where we belong in 4 Heart but this is a too small target for me.

 

In the system I actually play with my pd, 4 Club is RCKB for clubs with the first response showing a hand not suitable for slam in the context of the bidding so far.

This had worked nice here.

[Halo]

I'd have passed 3NT immediately! So plenty of food for thought for me in the other replies.

[keylime]

Many players play 1M-1NT-2NT as forcing around here locally, to cater to this freakish distribution.

[Apollo81]

I'd probably have bid 5♣.

[dake50]

4C must force else why escape a 3NT partner says is a good punt after 1NT showed something.

Start 4C, invite slam, may need C3-2 and S4-2 for 6C IF pard has 3xA. But may be MUCH better.

My problem is finding H quacks in lieu of S solid (or ruff once) for tricks.

The out is 4NT is only 1 trick higher price for slam try.

[skjaeran]

Many players play 1M-1NT-2NT as forcing around here locally, to cater to this freakish distribution.

1M-1NT-2NT is used as a conventional GF by many here too. The responses after 1♥ and 1♠ differ, as more suits are in play after a 1♠ opening.

[mikeh]

I pass, but with sympathy for other calls, such as 4♥ (not that I would ever do that) and 5♣.

 

Whether 4♣ is plausible depends, in my view, on the system in place.

 

If playing Acol (on my hazy understanding), then my hand is already constrained by my 1N bid.. Frances in fact suggested that a 2♣ response would be within contemplation here... so in that scenario, I can see a 4♣ call here, as forcing but far more limited than it would be for me.

 

In a 2/1 style, as I usually play, 4♣ could and would be a hand just shy of a gf 2♣ response, so would carry strong slam aspirations.. and that ain't this hand.

[Ronald_21]

I ran a simulation of 1000 deals, the results were:

 

Clubs 11+tricks: 63% 12+: 20% Total tricks available: 10735

Hearts 10+tricks: 66% 11+: 31% 12+: 6% Total tricks available: 9909

NT 9+tricks: 48% 10+: 24% 11+: 3% Total tricks available: 8293

 

A little surprisingly 4H looks like the best spot.

[mikeh]

I did a smaller simulation, but did not rely upon any software analysis, which I suspect had to form part of the 1000 hand simulation: these analyses, as I understand them, are usually double-dummy. I did 29 hands, of which I rejected 4 because the EW hands would have been bidding (in each case, based on a diamond suit, not surprisingly).

 

Of the 25 hands that seemed to pass muster, and assuming what looked in each case like a normal lead, and a normal line of play (in one hand, playing 4♥ with Kxx opposite xxxxx and comunication problems, I assumed declarer played a low trump to the K, losing an avoidable trick to A10 tight offside... if this were solved double dummy, we'd duck twice)....

 

On 4 hands no game makes

 

4♥ made 15 times

 

3N made 15 times

 

5♣ made only 11 times

 

You can see that on many hands all games make.

 

There were a few hands on which 4♠ made as well: my parameters allowed for a 6 card suit, 18-20 hcp and 2-3 cards in each of the side suits, so 6322 or 5332 shape.

 

 

And while I did not do a double-dummy analysis, it did appear to me that 4♥ was the contract that would benefit most from that approach: 3N was usually a case of running 9 (or 10) winners... rarely did 3N make if we had to lose the lead after getting in. And 5♣ has a lower margin of error, requiring 11 tricks.

 

So I would have my doubts as to the reliability of a d-d analysis of available tricks in the various game contracts. I agree, however, that the analysis makes 4♥ more attractive than my intuition had suggested.

[Ronald_21]

In any system I would bid 4 Club now. Yes pd could have hands where we belong in 4 Heart but this is a too small target for me.

 

In the system I actually play with my pd, 4 Club is RCKB for clubs with the first response showing a hand not suitable for slam in the context of the bidding so far.

This had worked nice here.

If you play 4C as keycard (which is the way I play it with my favourite p's), then 6C is a reasonable shot if you hear 4 keycards, making 12 tricks in just over 50% of the cases.

 

If you play RKC 1430, and you hear 4H (3 keycards), then in a MP-game the best strategy would be to pass 4H, making 10+tricks in 70% of the cases (5C made 11+tricks in 75% of the cases).

[benlessard]

The most important fact is will partner bid 3Nt with an unstopped suit or can he make an offshape jumpshift ? (because if he tend to have stop in all the suit then hes got the A of C)

 

My answer is not often because its a bit of masterminding to jump to 3nt shutting partner out and let him go down losing the first 5 tricks when both 4M makes !

 

So i expect 3Nt to make close to 99% of the times.

 

If for systemic reason partner doesnt promise show stops in all 4 suits then ill bid 4C forcing wheiter its keycard or not

[Ronald_21]

The most important fact is will partner bid 3Nt with an unstopped suit or can he make an offshape jumpshift ? (because if he tend to have stop in all the suit then hes got the A of C)

 

My answer is not often because its a bit of masterminding to jump to 3nt shutting partner out and let him go down losing the first 5 tricks when both 4M makes !

 

So i expect 3Nt to make close to 99% of the times.

 

If for systemic reason partner doesnt promise show stops in all 4 suits then ill bid 4C forcing wheiter its keycard or not

It feels normal to pass 3NT if you could be sure that partner has a stopper in every suit. However, simulations often lead to surprising results, so I did a simulation of 1000 deals with the strong hand having at least an ace, king or queen in every suit. The results were:

 

Clubs 11+tricks: 66% 12+: 21% Total tricks available: 10788

Hearts 10+tricks: 66% 11+: 32% 12+: 6% Total tricks available: 9917

NT 9+tricks: 69% 10+: 38% 11+: 6% Total tricks available: 8872

 

The percentages and total tricks for the heart and club game did not change much. Not surprisingly there was a significant improvement in the NT-game percentages.

 

Clearly in a MP-game hearts still stand out by a mile.

 

Even in a team game hearts is probably the winner. NT makes game more often in 3% of the cases, but hearts makes a trick more per board (although a 1000-board simulation may not be enough for such a conclusion, because the differences are so small).

 

Psychologically in a teams game it's probably better to pass 3NT. Everybody will understand a pass of 3NT even when it goes down, but when 4H goes down while 3NT makes, I bet your teammeates won't be happy with you :( ;).

[mikeh]

The most important fact is will partner bid 3Nt with an unstopped suit or can he make an offshape jumpshift ? (because if he tend to have stop in all the suit then hes got the A of C)

 

My answer is not often because its a bit of masterminding to jump to 3nt shutting partner out and let him go down losing the first 5 tricks when both 4M makes !

 

So i expect 3Nt to make close to 99% of the times.

 

If for systemic reason partner doesnt promise show stops in all 4 suits then ill bid 4C forcing wheiter its keycard or not

I think such an assumption is unplayable. The other night I held AKJxx Qxx AKQ xx:

 

The auction began 1♠ 1N.

 

Any call other than 3N makes no sense at all, at least not to me

[skjaeran]

The most important fact is will partner bid 3Nt with an unstopped suit or can he make an offshape jumpshift ? (because if he tend to have stop in all the suit then hes got the A of C)

 

My answer is not often because its a bit of masterminding to jump to 3nt shutting partner out and let him go down losing the first 5 tricks when both 4M makes !

 

So i expect 3Nt to make close to 99% of the times.

 

If for systemic reason partner doesnt promise show stops in all 4 suits then ill bid 4C forcing wheiter its keycard or not

I think such an assumption is unplayable. The other night I held AKJxx Qxx AKQ xx:

 

The auction began 1♠ 1N.

 

Any call other than 3N makes no sense at all, at least not to me

I'd rebid 2NT, conventional GF here. :)

Follow-ups to play 3NT, 4♥ vs 5-card, 4♠ vs Qx (if we want) etc.

[brianshark]

I'm quite surprised about the relative success of 4♥s here. It's quite against my initial guess (and others' as well). But the simulations don't lie! :)

[benlessard]

I think such an assumption is unplayable. The other night I held AKJxx Qxx AKQ xx:

 

The auction began 1♠ 1N.

 

Any call other than 3N makes no sense at all, at least not to me

 

 

Glad we are on the same wavelength because for me too it (3Nt) doesnt make no sense at all ! B)

 

I see nothing wrong bidding 2Nt (forcing or not) showing 17-19 balanced in my book & if partner decide to pass with 5 pts or (2Q+2J and a stiff spades) i dont mind playing 2Nt.

 

But my preference is to 3D. Jumpshifting into AKQ is rarely wrong giving partner the chance to rebid 3H to show a 5H suit.

 

Ask any player worth his salt and you wont find many of them bidding 3Nt.

[Codo]

Ask any player worth his salt and you wont find many of them bidding 3Nt.

Is "Worth the salt" an expression for: They are all dead?

 

I guess that most experts will choose the bid which describe this hand. If 2 NT is 17-19, they can use it. If this is artifical, they will too.

 

But if 3 NT shows THIS hand, they simply will bid it. They won´t silly jump in a 3 card suit. I know that some players use the jump into 3 card suits frequent to solve other rebid problems- but with other hands.

But to claim that this is common practice with this hand type is simply wrong.

[ASkolnick]

I know this may be unorthodox, but I don't see how you can stop below 4C anyway. Are you really passing 1S-1N-2S? The dangerous auction would be 1S-1N-2C-2D hand where you will be over bidding if partner does not have a fit, but no guarantee he does not. But it is still much easier to realize a misfit on the auction, 1S-2C-2D-2H, 2S-3H Uh -Oh.

 

 

You have enough shape that I am not sure you shouldn't just bid your suits. This way you don't have to figure out what to do at the 4 level. Might you be slightly over aggressive, yes, but I think you will be in much better position to make a call.

 

Over

 

1S-2C-

2X- Bid Hearts

3S- Tougher, but bid hearts to give the option of playing.