More trouble with preempts

[elwood913]

[hv=d=e&v=n&s=s876hakj9743d653c]133|100|(4♣) - ?[/hv]

 

Do you pass because the opponents have preempted and they may be in trouble when you can't make anything, confident that with your few high cards partner will have enough to re-open the bidding when appropriate?

 

Or is this suit too good to let go undisclosed, and a bid now passes info to partner so you can better continue in the face of more interference? Does your shape suggest that partner is not likely to re-open in a way that gets you to the right place if you don't bid your suit now?

 

If this hand isn't good enough to venture a bid, how about if it held another side Ace? If this hand is worth a bid, is it a minimum--what would you have to change or remove to cause you to pass?

[Guest Jlall]

I'm sure this will arouse the wrath of dburn but I think you have to bid 4H on this hand. Partner is passing out 4C with way too many hands that make game.

[jdonn]

I'm sure this will arouse the wrath of dburn but I think you have to bid 4H on this hand. Partner is passing out 4C with way too many hands that make game.

But Justin, pard has an automatic slam try on Kxxxx QTxx xx Ax!

[awm]

I'm sure this will arouse the wrath of dburn but I think you have to bid 4H on this hand. Partner is passing out 4C with way too many hands that make game.

But Justin, pard has an automatic slam try on Kxxxx QTxx xx Ax!

Strangely this doesn't bother me. I have the short hearts.

 

It is true that there exist hands where partner will try for slam and we go down at the five-level. Fortunately on many of these hands the opponents were making 5♣ (like the example hand). It's true that if I could somehow bid 4♥ and force partner to pass, and opponents are messing around and not raising with a big fit, then I could've made 4♥ and am going down in 5♥... but this is playing the opponents to be messing around...

 

At worst bidding will turn a small plus (partner passes out some number of clubs, we nick it a trick or two) into a small minus (we end up in 4♥ going down or partner tries for slam and we get to 5♥ going down, regardless of whether 4♥ makes). At best bidding creates a double game swing. I'm a bidder.

 

If you switch my clubs and diamonds though, I think pass is a huge favorite.

[beatrix45]

:) 4♥. The very idea of any other bid is an abomination. I would love to hear arguments for any other call - esp. pass. Bridge can really be a difficult game to learn if one pays the slightest heed to such advice.

[ArcLight]

>The very idea of any other bid is an abomination

 

I think this is an overstatement. But I would bid 4♥.

 

 

What does the 4 ♣ bid show?

Is it a 7 card suit headed by the Jack?

Or 8 cards with 3 of the top 5 honors?

 

The weaker, the more likely I am to bid.

 

 

I bid 4♥ because:

 

- 4H may make, though I wouldnt be surprised if the success rate was < 50%, its still a game bonus, vs +50 or +100

 

- 4♣ may well make (depending on what their 4♣ bids show)

 

We are void in clubs, and pard with a decent hand will never bid with 2 small clubs and maybe not with 3.

 

We may go down, but its not so likely LHO has a trump stack, still Q T x x is possible.

 

Bid because the game bonus is worth the risk of -50, -100, and occasionally more.

 

Bidding will also get you to a rare slam.

[helene_t]

4♥ but it could take us too high, or p may double a making 6♣. Still I think pass is riskier.

[kenrexford]

If you are paralyzed into inactivity too much because of a risk that your partner might overbid the hand, then you will quite often underbid the hand.

 

If you are insane with fear that partner will underbid his hand, then you will overbid quite often.

 

So, the best course seems to be to just bid your hand, let partner bid his hand, and hope that it all works out.

 

That being said, you often have to slightly overbid or underbid to account for partner's likely issues. If he will be unduly passive, be aggressive. If he will go crazy, be cautious. On the flip side, spot when partner might have catered to your actual hand.

 

So, after assessing all of this, I would clearly...

 

Oh, sorry -- dinner is ready.

[beatrix45]

If you are paralyzed into inactivity too much because of a risk that your partner might overbid the hand, then you will quite often underbid the hand.

 

:) Scared bridge is losing bridge

[elwood913]

Hi,

 

Thanks for the replies.

 

Nobody seems to want to pass this hand.

 

What's wrong with the thought that there are a lot of high cards out there and when partner has his share of them he will find a bid? Sure, it might not be an easy bid for pard, but I don't think your bid in this spot is easy either.

 

I guess what I'm hoping to accomplish is to take advantage of the fact that the opponents have just announced they can't make the contract they've bid. Why should I stick my neck out and bid something I have very little idea if I can make? I hear you that scared bridge is bad bridge, but I don't see this as scared. When partner has his share of the points he'll find a bid. When LHO has more than his share of points they are likely down a trick or two when we can't make 4♥.

 

Partner will surely have a rough time with his bid, but if he finds one it should work out okay. Over X or 4♦ you can bid your ♥'s, and you have a reasonable to good fit if you hear 4♠. Maybe you'll miss a slam when p is surprised by the quality of your suit, but if you make the direct 4♥ bid you'll certainly get to some slams taking 10 or 11 tricks when p is surprised by the lack of high cards.

 

What if you pass and LHO gets in the mix with 5♣? Maybe that makes it that much tougher on pard and is a reason you should get your bid in. But how much does the early bid help? Can it help your pard know whether to bid 5♥ or X? How can he know you have this hand and not ♥AKJ9x with several tricks in the other suits? If he can't decide and lets it slide around to you how much more do you know than you would have known if you had heard (4♣)-p-(5♣)-p-p-?

 

I don't want to play scared, but the chances we would make game but p fails to re-open don't seem so high to me. Is this wrong..am I putting too much faith in the balancing seat?

 

Thanks,

Bill

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

Thanks for the replies.

 

Nobody seems to want to pass this hand. 

 

What's wrong with the thought that there are a lot of high cards out there and when partner has his share of them he will find a bid?  Sure, it might not be an easy bid for pard, but I don't think your bid in this spot is easy either.

<snip>

The main problem is, that you are

the one, who is short in their suit.

 

The most likely bid partner can make

is X, which he wont do, because it would

be a t/o, and because he has length in

clubs and shortage in hearts.

 

The vote for 4H would drop, if you did

have say xx / xxx in clubs.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[Edmunte1]

I don't want to play scared, but the chances we would make game but p fails to re-open don't seem so high to me. Is this wrong..am I putting too much faith in the balancing seat?

Yes

[whereagles]

I ain't gonna pass. 4 it is.

[the hog]

Well I am passing this and really I don't think it is a close decision. The problem arises when partner thinks I have a real 4H bid and makes a move.

I well remember a hand where I was playing the finals of a mixed pairs event some years ago. the bidding went (3H) 3S from my pd on a hand similar to the one shown. I drove to slam, and 'yes" I had my bid. we were doubled off 2. I would have protected with a X in the pass out seat btw.

[gwnn]

Bill you just can't pass all of the time. Many a time these hands are 20-20 hcp when both parties can make a high partial or even game, so it's imperative to get in this gorgeous suit in the auction. It really need be stressed that one cannot hope for a fine ride when they cut off 3.2 levels of bidding space. You just need to punt whatever you think you may make - kind of when pd is barred from the auction, for example. (Of course, he's NOT barred now, which makes it a little risky, but you can't cross the street if you're afraid of the tram hitting you)

[Blofeld]

I bid here.

 

I don't think there should be much difference in strength between direct and balancing seat action over a preempt, especially at this level. I have (very) short clubs, which makes it likely that partner will not have shortage. Despite eight points, I have a lot of playing strength here. I do think that bidding will go wrong a fair proportion of the time, but I think it will be less frequent than pass going wrong.

 

Incidentally, if we pass now we're never playing in 4♥, are we?

[joker_gib]

Well I am passing this and really I don't think it is a close decision. The problem arises when partner thinks I have a real 4H bid and makes a move.

I well remember a hand where I was playing the finals of a mixed pairs event some years ago. the bidding went (3H) 3S from my pd on a hand similar to the one shown. I drove to slam, and 'yes" I had my bid. we were doubled off 2. I would have protected with a X in the pass out seat btw.

I agree ! No prempt over preempt even if it's tempting...

 

Alain

[han]

If you switch my clubs and diamonds though, I think pass is a huge favorite.

I agree with Adam, but a void in clubs or xxx in clubs is VERY different. Most of partners cards will likely be outside of clubs. Moreover, if we have club length then it is more likely that partner will protect/

[jdonn]

The bid on these hands is very very easy if you follow this chain of logical reasoning.

 

- Our most likely best result when we hold this hand is to play in 4♥.

- If we don't bid 4♥ now there is essentially no chance we can ever play that contract.

 

Passing is simply bad. You give yourself no chance to get to your most likely best contract.

 

By the way, "don't preempt over a preempt" is not advice intended to prevent you from bidding with bad hands over a preempt. It means that when the opponents preempt and you jump over that, it shows a good hand not another preempt. That advice has nothing to do with this situation (unless you are wondering what a 5♥ bid would mean.)

[elwood913]

Bill you just can't pass all of the time. Many a time these hands are 20-20 hcp when both parties can make a high partial or even game, so it's imperative to get in this gorgeous suit in the auction.

Isn't this precisely when I want to pass, when both sides can make a high partial? If 3♣ or 3♥ is the max then I most definitely do not want in on this auction. Yes, we will have some games. But when? When partner has some useful values. If he has these, won't he bid? If he has his fair share or more of the HCP, about 12+, won't he be looking to bid?

 

His bid won't likely be much fun, but it should turn out okay:

It's not impossible he'll X. Yes he rates to have about 3 ♣'s, but that dosen't prohibit him from having a distribution he'd X with. Remember, the preemptor doesn't likely hold many ♥'s so there are still some in the deck for pd to have a X. If he has long ♦'s and bids 4♦, won't you happily bid 4♥ over it? If he has long ♠'s and bids 4♠ we have an 8 or 9 card ♠ fit. Often our ♥ fit will be better, but ♠'s shouldn't be a disaster, and at least we're there when p has some values. If he doesn't have long ♦ or long ♠, shouldn't he have a X? Yes, sometimes he'll be 3244 or 4243and you'll wish you'd bid. But how often? If p has the points for you to make 4♥ and just about any other distribution, isn't he in there with a bid that will get you to 4♥ or 4♠?

 

Also, I agree with The_Hog and fear the risk of us getting too high more than most have mentioned. Pd rates to have 12 HCP on average. When he's got AKxx xxx KQx xxx shouldn't he be excited? That's what you need to find just to make your bid, and that's with no ♥ loser, or ♦ ruff.

When p has this you'll be in 4♥ after his X. Take a small ♥ and make it a ♣ or ♦ and you might miss this game. But if p decides to explore over 4♥ you're down.

 

Thanks,

Bill

[jdonn]

When he's got AKxx xxx KQx xxx shouldn't he be excited?

Gah, NO!!!!! I'll be posting it until my death. When partner is under pressure, don't hang him!! Some slams will be missed, but you won't go down at the 5 level, and more importantly you gain so much more from partner being able to stretch and get your side into the auction.

When p has this you'll be in 4♥ after his X.

No no no no no! Doubling with that hand after 4♣ P P is nutso, that is not even close. 4333, seriously?? So the hand with 7 tricks and a void has to pass, but the balanced hand with 3 or 4 tricks is bidding? Good grief! Sorry I know I'm going nuts here, but doubling with that hand at the 4 level?

[awm]

Usually if partner has 3+♣ he will not find a balancing call. It's simply too dangerous to jump into auctions at this level when you may not have much for values and you could be long in preempters suit in both hands -- this is a good recipe for being doubled and going for -1100. Obviously if partner has a moose of a hand (18 hcp or whatever) he will find a bid, but this is an extreme case.

 

So deciding what to do in such auctions, we have to ask ourselves: how many clubs does partner have? (or in general, how many cards in the suit opponents opened). If I have a bunch of clubs, it raises the odds that partner has short clubs. If I have a bunch of clubs and so does partner we may not make anything even if we have points, since the opponents are going to grab a bunch of club tricks off the top and the side suits are going to break badly. If I have a bunch of clubs and partner has short clubs, I can rely on partner to balance when he has a good hand. So the more clubs I have, the more safe I am to pass.

 

When I have the short clubs, there is a real danger that we can make something but partner can't find a balance. So I have to bid aggressively. Partner should be aware of this, and should give me some leeway when it looks like I have the short clubs.

 

Obviously there is a problem when both partner and I am short in clubs. Fortunately, the opponents will sometimes let us know about this situation by raising the club preempt. If opponents do pass, it's possible that we will push ourselves to the five-level, basically because partner looks at his short clubs and thinks that I must have some clubs, and therefore I have a good hand for my bid and we should look for slam. Then again, the opponents probably had a good sacrifice in 5♣ anyway, so we lose only a little by being at the five level. In any case, if I had passed it hardly solves the problem, since bidding only 4♥ with a seven card suit after partner makes a four-level takeout double is quite wimpy in any case, and partner will often leave us to play there when he has (say) AKJx Qxx AKJx xx and slam makes fairly easily (since of course we basically had to bid and could have a balanced hand with 4-5♥).

[han]

Thanks Josh, especially for clearing up this misconception:

 

By the way, "don't preempt over a preempt" is not advice intended to prevent you from bidding with bad hands over a preempt. It means that when the opponents preempt and you jump over that, it shows a good hand not another preempt. That advice has nothing to do with this situation (unless you are wondering what a 5♥ bid would mean.)

[elwood913]

Thanks Adam for that post, it helps sort out what I've been missing. Others had posted that the club shotness is what really makes you want to bid this hand, and I see now that is not just because it makes your hand better but that it makes p's bid so tough. (some strong reactions from others helped that point come home, too :rolleyes: ) And, when p has clubs he can have a good idea you may be bidding on such a hand and won't get overly excited. I was worried that the direct bid would be confusing because it would be very hard to sort out what type of hand the 4♥ bidder has, but if partner takes a look at his club holding (and the opponents decision to carry on or not) he will have at least some idea.

 

Thanks all,

Bill

[jdonn]

(some strong reactions from others helped that point come home, too :rolleyes: )

Sorry :)

 

I took deep breaths, and I feel better now!