Lead problem

[jdonn]

KQx KT876x xx 9x, LHO deals, both vul, matchpoints

 

P P 2NT, you pass

3C P 3D P

3H P 3NT P

P P

 

2NT 20-21. The opponents play Puppet stayman so opener has 4 hearts, responder has 4 spades.

 

What do you lead and why?

 

Edit: I'll fill in the spots. KQ2 KT8762 74 93

[han]

Very difficult, anything could be right. A heart is my last choice, it is really very unlikely that we can set up the heart suit and it will likely give up a trick. A high spade could be great but is also quite likely to blow a trick, declarer is fairly likely to hold the ace.

 

So I'll go with a passive genius lead. The club 9 is more easily readible for partner and may just help partner if we get really lucky. On the other hand, partner will be able to see our great heart length so will likely know that we are making a shortness lead. The club 9 is more likely to cost a trick so I'll go with the most passive lead available, a high diamond.

[Guest Jlall]

Partner didn't X 3C so a diamond stands out.

[jonottawa]

Midnights I'd lead the ♠2. (Yeah, I know, not many midnight matchpoints events.)

 

Diamond seems like it has least potential for embarrassment. But that's probably what you did so it's probably not the right answer.

[Codo]

Partner didn't X 3C so a diamond stands out.

obvious B)

 

After you look at your hearts and believe that this lead will more often loose then gain, you have to go passive. And then it must be a diamond.

[whereagles]

my instinct tells me to lead a heart, so that's what I do...

[Finch]

I'm quite tempted by my systemic spade (which for me would be the queen)

At IMPS I think I spade is right.

 

At matchpoints? No idea... anything could be right. I really hate leading a doubleton diamond, particularly when we have so many points.

 

If I don't lead a spade, I think I'll lead a heart. It may well turn out to be a fairly passive lead anyway.

[bridgeboy]

I'm not leading a heart.

 

So it's between a high Spade and a diamond... I think matchpoints tips it enough for a diamond lead.

[mikeh]

I'm leading a high spade (in one partnership, the Q, in another, the K).

 

Whatever I do is dangerous. Guessing the wrong minor (and both may be wrong) will effectively give dummy an extra entry to take finesses through partner's holdings and/or may blow a tempo. Leading a heart seems wrong in principle.

 

The high spade lead may also blow a trick or two: imagine dummy with J10xx and declarer with Ax. But it may knock out an entry to dummy immediately and I only need the Jxxx in partner's hand for this to be the best possible lead (well, maybe J9xx if declarer holds the A). And maybe we can run 4 spade tricks.

 

I don't read a lot into partner's failure to double 3♣. Unless he is suicidal, he'd need more than, say, QJ10x to do so: we know he is broke ourside the suit if he has a holding like that.

 

While mps often rewards passive defence, auctions that begin with 2N are not, strangely enough, pure power auctions. Responder often goes to game with really borderline values, such that aggressive leads (and the spade is certainly that) should not be necessarily avoided.

[mike777]

2H

 

I am weak in the unbid suit, diamonds and have a reasonable 5+ long suit even though the opp have bid it. I may have a spade entry.

[Apollo81]

I would probably go with the spade. Tough lead.

[Guest Jlall]

Leading a spade at MP just seems way too dangerous to me, obviously "everything is dangerous" but there are varying degrees of danger, xx in an unknown suit must be less dangerous by a lot than KQx in dummy's 4 card suit into a 2N opener.

 

Agree with Mike not to read too much into the failure to X 3C, but if you are like me and think a major is out then a diamond must be percentage over a club because partner COULD have a holding like KQJTx in diamonds, but not in clubs (from his failure to X). Since there are no other clues than that a diamond must be better than a club.

[Edmunte1]

I'll lead a diamond, because is the most defensive lead. Spade (with a possible Jack in dummy and Ace in declarer's hand) or hearts (with max 2 cards in partner's hand) can easily give away a trick, and club from 9x cand do it sometimes too, helping declarer for a double finesse against

H10x(x)

[awm]

While mps often rewards passive defence, auctions that begin with 2N are not, strangely enough, pure power auctions. Responder often goes to game with really borderline values, such that aggressive leads (and the spade is certainly that) should not be necessarily avoided.

This seems like a strange statement to me. I've always felt that a passive lead is best when opponents have two fairly balanced hands and relatively thin values for their contract. Aggressive leads work better when opponents have some long suit to establish, or (at IMPs) when they have extras for their contract and can probably establish enough tricks to make if we stay passive.

 

Auctions like this one, where as Mike says responder often has really borderline values, and there's no particular reason to think that opponents have a long minor to run (yes it is possible they have a five-card minor in either hand, but seems not percentage) would seem to favor a passive lead.

 

Anyway I go with the diamond.

[pclayton]

A spade at IMPs - this seems obvious.

 

MPs is brutal for decisions like this. I'll go with a diamond and hope the major aces are to my right.

[Halo]

Nine of clubs.

 

Better of the two suits I am willing to lead. Not convinced partner can lead direct me on these auctions.

[skjaeran]

♦4 with my main partner, leading 2nd/4th. ♦7 with my two other regulars. Tough one at MPs. Close to leading ♠K.

[karlson]

I agree with the diamond leaders. Seems like a spade really needs to catch partner with the J to be successful, and of course diamond is suggested over club.