your bid?

[mike777]

P=P=(1NT-15-17)=?

 

AJ...AKT876....AKT9...x

MP

[pclayton]

I think a penalty double of a 3rd seat 'strong' NT opening is necessary nowadays. Matt and I are playing multi-landy over 3rd seat 1N openings for this reason. We are looking at a 19 pounder and RHO has advertised a 15-17? Possible but not likely. Even if 1N is a semi-psyche on a decent 12 or 13, I'd still like to convey that I have a good hand.

 

If I had a penalty double in my arsenal, I would gladly make the call. If I don't, I'll just shoot out 4♥.

[mikeh]

I began to post that I didn't regret not having a penalty double even when dealt this monster, but I thought I'd run a quick simulation. To my surprise, double was a clear winner, albeit on a small sample.

 

I assumed equal vul. I think that at unfavourable, the odds shift to make bidding game, rather than hoping to defend 1Nx'd, became a much more attractive proposition, because, on a substantial number of hands, when we beat them 500, we make 620.

 

One odd result (which I expected) was that on one hand where they made 1Nx'd, it was still probably a winner because the hands look as if LHO will successfully double 4♥ and we go -300 (or 500 if red) against 180.

 

Of course, the simulation is not immune from criticism. I had to make judgment calls on the 1N opening (I assumed, for example, that a 4=2=2=5 15 count would open 1♣, and I allowed several 5 card spade suits in otherwise suitable hands. I also assumed that we'd lead hearts from the top (leading low at trick 2 when dummy hit with Jxx, and, on that hand, catching partner with Qx). Leading 4th best was a small net loser...too many Qx opp xxx or Jx or one QJ tight.

 

I also assumed a trump lead from the defence against 4♥, which was necessary a couple of times to prevent diamond ruffs.

 

At favourable, the double is an overwhelming favourite, of course.

 

Note that I also assumed that if the opps ran (and that is difficult to simulate for), we'd bid game. And what about partner? On at least one hand, partner held a void heart, with long weak spades...we get killed in 4♥ but they go beat (on that hand) in 1N..+100/200. Would he run? Would we bid and what would we bid if he ran, and so on.

 

But, the results were enough that, if I knew I'd get such great hands, I'd go back to penalty doubles B)

[mike777]

If need be assume:

x=penalty

h=hearts

 

nothing fancy.

[awm]

This is a problem hand because:

 

(1) 2♥ is an underbid. There are many hands that make 4♥ where partner will not think to bid on. This is true even if 1NT is not a psych or tactical upgrade, which it could easily be.

 

(2) 4♥ is an overbid. Sometimes it will work, but if 1NT bidder is not messing around he has most of the remaining cards. You may not even be able to get to dummy. It is easy to imagine losing a trick in each suit even if things are breaking in a friendly way, and you could also easily get doubled and go for a big number if hearts are 4-1 (for example).

 

On the other hand, double seems like a perfect call. When the 1NT bidder has his bid, you will still usually set 1NTX but you weren't making 4♥. On the rare occasion 1NTX makes you were going for a big number in 4♥ (yes you might've made 2♥ on the nose).

 

If the 1NT bidder was messing around, he will usually run from 1NTX. At this point you can bid your hearts and you've shown a power hand with long hearts, at which point partner knows to raise with a moderate fit. Even if they sit for 1NTX, if partner has an entry and/or heart fit you will beat it a lot of tricks which may compensate you for the missed game.

[jdonn]

This is a problem hand because:

 

.....

 

On the other hand, double seems like a perfect call.

So if there is a perfect call why is this a problem hand :P

 

I agree double seems obvious, bidding hearts next if/when someone runs.

[Guest Jlall]

I have a very good hand, so I double.

[neilkaz]

Double !!

[han]

Agree with Phil.

[kenrexford]

You about have to start with the penalty double. However, you know that the auction will not die adn probably will return as some club bid. It is this scenario that creates the greater problem. What to do after 1NT-X-XX-P-2♣? Or, something similar...

[whereagles]

Opps seem to have an easy escape from dbl into a black suit, so I'd bid 4♥. LHO is broken and RHOs honors are under ours, so it's pretty good odds no one can dbl this if it fails.

[Finch]

I have a very good hand, so I double.

Me too.

 

Of course, coming from weak NT land, I also have detailed agreements about the subsequent auction (what is forcing, which doubles are penalties, when lebensohl applies etc)

[skjaeran]

Obvious double to me.

The problem, if any, will come later.

Agree with Mikeh that 4♥ is a possible bid r/w, but I think I'd double then also.

[matmat]

whenever i see an auction like this RHO has a running club suit and just enough stoppers to make 1n. it sucks. but it's true.

 

that said, double and bid whatever seems prudent after their runout.