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Is there a chance?


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[hv=d=e&v=b&n=s5haqj87d872caj105&w=saj984hk32dj1054ck&e=skq72h965dakq6c43&s=s1063h104d93cq98762]399|300|Scoring: XIMP

East: 4S

Lead: D9[/hv]

You have arrived in 4 as East. It would have been better to let West declare, but that can't be helped. At least you have avoided the killing heart lead. South leads 9.

 

Your worries are not over because you can see that A is offside. Is there a chance even if the opponents defend well? It sure looks like three heart losers and one club loser, doesn't it?.

 

The spectators claimed that the contract is always off if South is awake. Were they correct?

 

If you are advanced or better, please use hidden text, and if you are a B/I, don't peek if they do.

 

Roland

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Neat hand!

 

 

 

We have 9 tricks and need the 10th.

 

Win diamond in hand and draw three rounds of trumps (making sure K stays in and A is used up) and 2 more rounds of diamonds, keeping A.

 

If North discards 2 small hearts, we can eliminate minors and throw N in (with low hearts from both hands) for the 10th.

 

 

If North discards a small heart and heart Q or J, we can eliminate clubs, end up in hand with the last diamond and lead a heart. South has to put in the T, we put up the K. Now our 9 makes a trick!

 

So assume North discards a club and a low heart.

 

Now play the K. North has to win and exit a club. South has to overtake (else you duck), so you ruff.

 

Now when you play a diamond to A, N is squeezed in a weird way. If he discards a heart (either low or Q/J) we can proceed as above. So assume he discards a club. In which case we cash the last round of trumps and N is squeezed again!

 

A nice one suit squeeze.

 

(sorry, no hand diagrams)

 

 

 

 

Hope analysis is correct.

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I think I actually get this one.

 

Declarer pulls spades and strips diamonds. Declarer leads a low club, won by north. North MUST exit in clubs, or give up a heart trick. When north exits in clubs, south MUST cover, or else dummy discards a heart and now clubs are stripped, and north must lead up to Kx or offer ruff-and-discard.

 

So south covers the club, and dummy ruffs, and returns - a low heart. If north wins, dummy will get a heart or ruff and sluff, so northhas to duck. South must win with the 10, and return a heart.

 

Down 1 on best defense?

 

V

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I think I actually get this one.

 

Declarer strips spades and diamonds. Declarer leads a low club, won by north. North MUST exit in clubs, or give up a heart trick. When north exits in clubs, south MUST cover, or else dummy discards a heart and now clubs are stripped, and north must lead up to Kx or offer ruff-and-discard.

 

So south covers the club, and dummy ruffs, and returns - a low heart. If north wins, dummy will get a heart or ruff and sluff, so northhas to duck. South must win with the 10, and return a heart.

 

Down 1 on best defense?

 

V

This was exactly what the spectators suggested, but I think they erred.

 

Roland

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I think we can just endplay North no matter how he defends. It really isn't a matter of a one suit squeeze, per se.

 

At trick 9, if we believe North has reduced to AQJx of hearts (and pitched all of his clubs), we cash the last spade and proceed as below.

 

If we think North is down to 3 hearts and a club (or just three hearts if at trick 10 having cashed the last spade):

 

No matter what hearts North keeps, we just lead a low heart at trick 9 or 10. If North has not pitched a heart honor (and has kept AQJ and a club or just the AQJ hearts), we simply duck in dummy, North is forced to win and eventually give us the heart K or a ruff and a sluff.

 

If North has pitched a heart honor, it does not help him. He now holds AQ8 and a club (trick 9) or AQ8 of hearts (trick 10). We again lead low towards dummy, if South plays small, we again play small from dummy. North can win the 8, but again is forced to either give us the heart K or a ruff and a sluff.

 

Finally, if North has pitched a heart honor and South plays the heart 10, we now play the king, again endplaying North. Either the 9 will win the game going trick or North again is forced to yield a ruff/sluff.

 

 

 

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I think we can just endplay North no matter how he defends.  It really isn't a matter of a one suit squeeze, per se.

This is just about terminology, but this position is exactly a one-suite squeeze. A squeeze is a situation where you would like to keep more cards than you are allowed to. Here North would like to keep 3 heart honors (in case we cover his partner's 10), and a low heart (in case we don't).

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Trumpace's analysis is indeed excellent. Declarer played the hand exactly like that and there was nothing the defence could so. North returned a high club after winning the ace, and when South failed to cover, declarer simply pitched a heart loser.

 

The reason why I posted this in the B/I Forum is that during the hand, before and when South failed to cover the club exit, and even for some time after the hand, several so called experts among the spectators claimed that South fell asleep when he did not overtake partner's jack.

 

They did not spot that the contract is a make no matter what South does once he did not lead a heart. If the "experts" can't see that, I thought it would be a good idea to ask the intermediates. At least they can't do worse.

 

I wish that those "experts" in the audience would keep a lower profile when they can't analyse to save their lives. It's not embarrassing to be an inferior analyst, but in my opinion it is embarrassing that those people are the ones who keep talking.

 

The trouble is that the BI's might believe what they see on print, and that would be a bad idea in way too many cases.

 

Roland

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