MP Choice

[lenze]

A Match Point Problem:

 

Playing in a club MP game you hold:

S – AK98643

H – 2

S – K65

C – 85

 

All vul, in second seat you open 3S

 

Partner raises to 4S and west leads the club Q

 

Dummy is

S – QT75

H – AQ74

D – Q

C – AT74

 

You win the Ace and draw trumps in two rounds, West being void.

 

Question: Do you take your 11 tricks, or risk the heart hook in an effort to make 12? If the heart finesse loses, you will only make 10 tricks.

[Yzerman]

I take heart finesse, considering West had the option of a bid over 3S and in balance position over 4S with a spade void, there is small inference he is seriously lacking in points. Obviously he may still hold HK, but you do have this 'inference', might as well use it.

 

MAL

[inquiry]

This is the similar to teh same old matchpoint problem we see time and time again. Choice of two contracts (6♠&4♠). If the ♥ hook wins, we lose to all the 6♠ bidders, if it loses, we beat them rather we take it or not. So in effect, we are not competiting against them.

 

If the ♥ hook wins, we also beat all our fellow 4♠ players who fail to take it, but we lose to them if it doesn't win. Some would argue against the hook since if the hook wins, you are going to lose to those in 6♠ anyway. Of course this logic is flawed in one sense, whatever we do will have no affect on how we do against them, but we win more matchpoints (in total) when the hook is off and we don't take it than we do when it is on and we do... the net points for guessing right and wrong is the same (beating or losing to fellow 4♠ players). Since hook is 50-50, but as mike points out above, it seems more likely WEST with ♣QJ(x) and VOID in my suit and didn't take action is somewhat less likely to have values (so less likely than say normal to have the ♥ King).

 

Here there is a slightly different line available. You could win ♣ACE, cash ♥Ace, ruff a ♥, win ♠Queen and ruff another ♥. If the ♥K falls in three rounds, you can win ♠ in dummy, play ♠ to hand, pitch ♣ on established ♥Queen, and give a ♦...making 12 tricks by a line maybe no one else will play. You still tie all those who refuse to take the ♥ hook if it is on, and you beat them if it is off. As a bonus you get the chance to catch doubleton or tripleton ♥King. As usual, your play has no affect on how you do against the 6♠ bidders.

 

The math here can be quite funny if you assume equal chances... Here is the math assuming 12 other tables, 4 bid 6♠, and 8 bid 4♠, with half of the 4♠ bidders hooking ♥, half not.

 

If you hook, and the hook wins: you lose 4 mp to all tables in slam, but win 4 mp from the four tables that failed to hook, and tie the others.. for average. If you fail to hook, you only get 2 mp tying those who also fail to hook. So your get 2 or 6 matchpoints when hook wins, depending upon your guess (difference of 4).

 

If the hook loses, and you take it, you win 4 MP from those in slam, lose 4MP from those who refuse the hook, and tie those who did hook, for an average (6MP). If the hook loses and you refuse to take it, you win 4MP from the slammers again, plus 4MP from those who take it and it is wrong, plus you tie the other guys for a total of 10 MP (again a difference of 4).

 

Siome people prefer to stack the odds in their favor by playing for the hook to be off and play for 11 tricks, since when they are "right" they get a 10, but when they are wrong they get a 2. Others like not to have such top-bottom swings, and they play for the hook to be on, where they get a 6 when it is on, and a 6 when it is off (by this math) and move on to the next hand.

 

What does the play for the drop of ♥K do for you by ruffing? When ♥King onside short, nothing more than the hook.... same result as hook. When the ♥K offside and short, you get a top (12), when the king is long off sides, it is as if you guessed correctly and didn't hook, and if it long onside it is just lke you guessed wrong and didn't hook. So, you have the same +4 for guess right and -4 for guess wrong as the people that hook, but you get two bonus plays (a top when hook is off short) and a tie for as good as you can do when it is on side and short. Thus, I prefer this alternative line.

 

Ben

[Trpltrbl]

HOOK.

 

Mike :P