No keycards but...

[zasanya]

[hv=d=w&v=e&s=skhxxxxdkqjxckxxx]133|100|Scoring: MP

3♠-4♥-p-?[/hv]

[whereagles]

lol.. not fair, this is the other half ^^

 

I'd probably pass.

[P_Marlowe]

No, pass.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[Guest Jlall]

Pass for sure.

[jdonn]

Passsssssss

 

Sometimes slam makes. Pass is still obvious because the only way to cater to those times is to get too high on the vast majority of hands where partner had to stretch.

 

4♥ is not even a complete certainty.

[ArtK78]

I agree with everyone that pass is clear. Even if you have all but one of the key cards, I would not be shocked to see the lead of a side suit ace followed by a ruff by the preemptor.

 

As for 4♥ going down, that would surprise me. It would probably take one, maybe two ruffs in addition to two or three inescapable losers.

 

I would guess that we are more likely to make slam than go down in game. Going down in 5 is a real possibility, however, so the risks of bidding on are significant.

[skjaeran]

Passsssssss

 

Sometimes slam makes. Pass is still obvious because the only way to cater to those times is to get too high on the vast majority of hands where partner had to stretch.

 

4♥ is not even a complete certainty.

Bingo!

[kenrexford]

I'd bid 4♥.

 

If this is accepted, partner can take it as a really weak slam try.

[dicklont]

I'd bid 4♥.

 

If this is accepted, partner can take it as a really weak slam try.

So clever, why don't I ever think of that?

[awm]

Seems to me that:

 

(1) Partner almost surely has 6+♥. With five hearts only he will often start with a double or bid 3NT. On the occasion he does have five hearts, they will be very good hearts with a strong overall hand.

 

(2) Partner seems to have more than one spade (seeing as we have one spade and RHO didn't raise). This makes it more likely partner's hand is good (partner might push with stiff spade and long hearts, won't push with spade length).

 

(3) If partner has four keycards, we can score up twelve tricks pretty easily. The worst case is something like ♠Axx ♥AKxxxx ♦A ♣xxx, where we need a club finesse through the non preempter (substantially more than fifty percent) combined with hearts not 3-0; this still seems like an okay slam.

 

(4) If partner has three keycards, we will usually make 5♥ (for example ♠xxx ♥AKQxxx ♦xx ♣Ax is a pretty easy make of 5♥). The only really bad case is when partner is missing both minor suit aces, but this seems kind of unlikely (the spade bidder is missing both top honors) and you still might make 5♥ (say partner has doubleton club for example, or club Qxx).

 

So really the question is "which is more likely, partner has four keycards or two for the four-level free bid"? I think I'd bid RKC here; I like my chances of partner holding a good hand.

[Codo]

Do I believe that pd bids 4 Heart on xxx,AKQJxxx,xx,xx or even less?

 

If pd is allowed to make 4 Heart bids on this hand, pass should win in the long run.

I think that pd should bid with this hand, so I would pass.

 

But I know, that my standard partner is too old/frightend/conservative for this approach. He has at least xx,AKQxxxx,xx,AQ, so I will try for slam opposite him. And opposite Adam, because he seems to have the same understanding of the 4 Heart bid.

[mikeh]

I join with the passers. Of course partner could have 'magic cards'. But those who consistently play partner for magic cards rarely win at the table. Partners rarely hold those hands. Bear in mind that I have probably won more overtricks and undoubled undertricks than most, and it wouldn't surprise me to add two more overtricks to my lifetime total :)

[pclayton]

I'd probably pass at the table, but I appreciate Adam's analysis and can't find a lot of fault with it.

[jdonn]

I'd probably pass at the table, but I appreciate Adam's analysis and can't find a lot of fault with it.

He didn't even consider that you might be off 4 keycards. Also a ruff is not the least bit unlikely in either minor.

[pclayton]

I'd probably pass at the table, but I appreciate Adam's analysis and can't find a lot of fault with it.

He didn't even consider that you might be off 4 keycards. Also a ruff is not the least bit unlikely in either minor.

Off 4 keys? What is CHO overcalling on?

[jdonn]

I'd probably pass at the table, but I appreciate Adam's analysis and can't find a lot of fault with it.

He didn't even consider that you might be off 4 keycards. Also a ruff is not the least bit unlikely in either minor.

Off 4 keys? What is CHO overcalling on?

x KQJxxxx x QJxx. Yes I know they didn't raise, please don't tell me you have never passed with support in order to try and confuse the opponents. Like here, where apparently you could get them to bid blackwood off 4 aces.

[benlessard]

I think the number of keyC my partner have is a great indication of the number of tricks we can make.

 

In MP WvsR i think partner will have 2 Keyc as often or close to the times he will have 4 or +. So i pass

 

 

but in IMPS its a clear 4Nt bid.

 

 

 

x KQJxxxx x QJxx. Yes I know they didn't raise, please don't tell me you have never passed with support in order to try and confuse the opponents. Like here, where apparently you could get them to bid blackwood off 4 aces.

 

Yes but they are red and you are W.

 

so its tough for them to be +100 4H down 2 undoubled when they can make 620 or 650

[pclayton]

I'd probably pass at the table, but I appreciate Adam's analysis and can't find a lot of fault with it.

He didn't even consider that you might be off 4 keycards. Also a ruff is not the least bit unlikely in either minor.

Off 4 keys? What is CHO overcalling on?

x KQJxxxx x QJxx. Yes I know they didn't raise, please don't tell me you have never passed with support in order to try and confuse the opponents. Like here, where apparently you could get them to bid blackwood off 4 aces.

Josh - I hope you are kidding. If pard holds this aceless 7-4, several things are happening:

 

1. The opponents are gin for 4 and probably 5 spades so its unlikely they just missed their cold game.

 

2. We are also failing in 4♥. Bidding on costs another 50 or 250.

 

If you want to make an argument for passing, I'd come up with a hand with one key card where 4 is cold but the 5 level is in jeopardy. It seems there are many more hands where we make slam, than we fail in 5♥ however.

 

I still think I'd pass at the table however, but I also think Adam's analysis is reasonable.

[dake50]

Perfect minimum and slam is on: HAK, DA,CA =15hcp. Try Key card.

[jdonn]

Josh - I hope you are kidding. If pard holds this aceless 7-4, several things are happening:

 

1. The opponents are gin for 4 and probably 5 spades so its unlikely they just missed their cold game.

 

2. We are also failing in 4♥. Bidding on costs another 50 or 250.

 

If you want to make an argument for passing, I'd come up with a hand with one key card where 4 is cold but the 5 level is in jeopardy. It seems there are many more hands where we make slam, than we fail in 5♥ however.

 

I still think I'd pass at the table however, but I also think Adam's analysis is reasonable.

Neither of my last two posts was making the strongest argument, I was simply answering your point and then your question directly. There are certainly hands like Kx AQJxxx x QJxx that I think are automatic 4♥ overcalls, but others are going to disagree so I tried to find one that everyone would bid 4♥ on and admittedly came up with a lousy example.

 

I think even if you could demonstrate slam is equally as likely as getting too high by trying (and I certainly think it's not) it would be a bad idea to look because you will scare partner out of ever stretching to overcall in a spot like this, which is something you desperately need him to do. I mean we could go down on either a ruff or a losing finesse for the trump queen if partner has 4 keycards! Like Ax KJT9xx Axx AQ. How can he ever take a chance if we will just get excited every time we have four small trumps and some values?

 

By the way, if partner happens to have 2 + the trump queen aren't we not only forced to slam, but probably going to be doubled in it by RHO who might even hold 3 aces in that case? Whatever happened to not bidding keycard unless we could handle every response?

[pclayton]

By the way, if partner happens to have 2 + the trump queen aren't we not only forced to slam, but probably going to be doubled in it by RHO who might even hold 3 aces in that case? Whatever happened to not bidding keycard unless we could handle every response?

This is a good point but its why Kickback is so important on hands like this.

[awm]

Obviously it is helpful if 4♠ is keycard here (kickback). It may be worth trying a 4♠ cue instead if 4nt would be keycard.

 

It would not really occur to me that partner might have x KQJxxxx x QJxx. Would you really overcall at the four-level on a hand that's not worth opening at the one-level? Yes, I'm sure there are many hands where you'd make a 4♥ preempt, but I think the disciplined approach is not to bid 4♥ on these hands, since if you do partner can never figure out when you have a good hand? And with RHO sitting there with four spades and three aces I think he might find a spade raise?

 

As for Kx AQJxxx x QJxx, this is not exactly possible since we have the spade king. Change the spade king to spade ace and 5♥ certainly has play (it does need the heart finesse though).

 

It wouldn't particularly bother me to be in slam opposite Ax KJT9xx Ax AQx or the like, and we can play 5♥ in any case (we are not forced to slam off the heart queen), which is essentially cold.

 

So basically:

 

(1) I disagree with your evaluation of the worst possible hands for partner. I think the worst realistic hands for partner put 5♥ on a finesse. If by bidding keycard, I deter partner from bidding 4♥ on x KQJxxxx x QJxx in the future, this is a good result of bidding keycard. :)

 

(2) Yes, there will be hands where we end up in 5♥ on a finesse and it goes down. And there may be hands where we reach 6♥ on a finesse and it goes down. But there is a flip side to this business of "you should be conservative in case partner has a bad hand so as not to deter partner from bidding" -- if you routinely take conservative actions like this and miss lay-down slams, partner will start jumping to five hearts on the likes of Ax AKQxxx Axxx x because, after all, he knows you will pass on a full opening bid with a singleton spade if he bids "only" 4♥. Forcing partner to jump to the five level on moderately good hands like this one could be costly too couldn't it?

[jdonn]

As for Kx AQJxxx x QJxx, this is not exactly possible since we have the spade king. Change the spade king to spade ace and 5♥ certainly has play (it does need the heart finesse though).

But you are not in 5♥ on a probably losing finesse to make. You are in 6♥X on a probably losing finesse to go down just 1. Yes kickback would help, then instead of trading a game for a number, you just trade a game for a minus.

 

I can't believe you think that hand shouldn't bid 4♥. That is....shocking.

 

As for when partner holds a good hand, he will never jump to 5♥ on your example (he isn't even sure of making 4), and his good hands are far less likely than his minimum hands (no matter what you think his minimum is.) This is a case where the similar argument against going nuts when partner overcalls does not work in reverse. Quite the contrary, partner will take the same sensible policy we should when he has a good hand and not risk minuses looking for slams without extremely good odds.

 

BTW, you just said that x KQJxxxx x QJxx is not worth a 1 level opening but K xxxx KQJx Kxxx is a "full opening bid". That is even a worse error than me doling out extra spade kings :)

[Winstonm]

Did partner bid a slow or fast 4H? :)

 

I'm not sure why partner, under pressure, could't hold a slightly worse hand that isn't safe at the 5-level, such as xx, AQJxxx, A, QJ9x or A, AJ10xxx, AJ, Jxxx.

[Fluffy]

I don't bid 4♥ on junk so I would make a move. My guess is partner has a 2 suiter, Maybe 5-5. I'd try 4♠ (cue).