High level decision

[catch22]

[hv=d=e&v=b&s=s3hk9daq43caqt765]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

P-1C-4S-P

P-?

 

Your bid

[Blofeld]

I guess I double.

[Guest Jlall]

auto X

[the hog]

auto X

And after the 5H bid are you happy? IF you are going to bid, the only bid to make is 4NT. I pass here.

[Free]

Dbl, keep it simple

[Guest Jlall]

auto X

IF you are going to bid, the only bid to make is 4NT. I pass here.

oh ok thx.

[whereagles]

I'd try 4NT. I sure won't be happy on 5♥ if I dbl ^^

[helene_t]

X but it's thisclose. Without discussion with p, maybe 4N is safer.

[the hog]

auto X

IF you are going to bid, the only bid to make is 4NT. I pass here.

oh ok thx.

NP. Anytime. :D

[Guest Jlall]

So people here only X with 1444 or something? The higher the level of a X the more wide ranging the shape will be simply out of necessity. If partner bids 5H and not pass or 4N he will usually have 6. This is because:

 

-With balanced hands he is going to be passing.

-With unbalanced hands that have 5 hearts he will have 2 places to play and will bid 4N.

-This leaves unbalanced hands with just hearts, these will contain 6+ hearts.

 

By far partner's most likely action over a X of 4S is going to be pass since he is going to assume you can beat it, and he will need something very good to not take the sure plus. We have extra values and spade shortness, and all of our values are in the terms of quick tricks. We have an excellent hand for both offense and defense. If partner bids 4N or 5m we are thrilled, if he passes that's fine (they might make it but you can't just roll over and die when they preempt you) and they will go down 2 often enough (on a good day more), if he bids 5H I am not so unhappy.

 

4N is way too unilateral. You are driving to the 5 level opposite an unknown hand when you could just defend 4S X most of the time (unless partner wants to bid to the 5 level himself over your X, in which case he is doing so hoping for a make). You will very very often be converting a plus into a minus.

 

Pass is way too conservative, and partner cannot X 4S himself with spade values, or marginal values with spade length. They are going to steal very often if you pass.

 

I just don't think this is close.

[Blofeld]

Clearly I won't be that happy if partner bids 5♥ (although it may still make - I'd expect that bid to have a 6 card suit most of the time), but that's far from an argument which rules double out. All the options will go badly opposite some possible hands; 4NT is bad when nothing makes or we could have collected a large penalty (or - shock! - when we belong in 5♥); pass is bad if we can make anything at the 5-level and sometimes just when we'd get more points taking 4♠ down if it's doubled.

 

Edit: Err, yeah, what Justin said.

[Fluffy]

Its either 4NT or double, pass doesn't look like an option, I prefer to gamble for playing 4♠X. Will not know what to do if they double 5♥

[drinbrasil]

I double with my partner, who will never bid 5H with bad suits, and will most of time pass with correct hands. If he has nothing, and 4Sx wins ,isnt so expensive and is hard to find how other table will do better, and if he has nothing i will go down...

[Codo]

My pd does not read this forum, so he won´t belive me THIS hand when I would double. This was an auto 4 NT for us up to now.

 

But I must confess, that Justins reasoning for X is quite convincing.

Of course there are downsides too: You must use 4 NT after the double for two places to play. You cannot use it for something else like: 4 NT is a stronger hand compared to 5 Club/Diamond and ask pd to cooperate if he sees a possible slam.

I find this usefull too but have to give it up for doubling with these kind of hands.

 

This is a nice tool if you need it, but maybe the benefit is too small compared with the costs.

[andy_h]

X. Justin summed it all up.

[bhall]

I guess my expectations are different from Justin's, although his arguments appear quite sound. Firstly, I expect partner to double for business holding a trump trick and the ♣K (or the ♥A). Secondly, I expect partner to play me for a squarish hand with about 3 1/2 defensive tricks if I balance with a double. Maybe a 2335 or 1345 18-count, or just several expected cashers.

 

Consequently, I am not so anxious either to bid or double. It seems very likely that both 4♠ and 5m are failing, so if forced to choose between the two, I would double, but I would be prepared to apologize when 4♠ wraps.

 

The whole picture changes, of course, if partner cannot make a penalty double of 4♠. Negative doubles through 7♥, anyone?

[mikeh]

Justin has summed up the case for my choice of double. A minor elaboration: I think both Justin and I (and the other doublers) are assuming that a direct double of 4♠ by partner would show transferable values, rather than a trump stack or other unilateral penalty double. I think virtually all experts and most advanced players would use this treatment, which means that partner, holding KQx Qxxxx Jxx xx, as an example, has to pass 4♠.

 

So we have to double to protect partner. My prediction is that double will be passed by partner 80% or more of the time, and that he will pull to 5♥ only with 6+ in the suit.

 

BTW, my expectation is that they will make 4♠ x'd a non-trivial number of times, but that's a price you have to be willing to pay. While no-one likes the opps wrapping up a doubled contract at imps (or any other scoring), if they don't make some doubled games, you aren't doubling enough.

[whereagles]

4N is way too unilateral. (...) You will very very often be converting a plus into a minus.

With 4NT I'll be playing in my best strain. You seem to be very confident pard is going to pass. I'm not so sure he will... With 3532 he might be tempted into 5♥ on account of opener's marked singleton.

 

But I agree you might easily be right with dbl.

[jdonn]

My order of preference.

 

Double

Pass

Abstain

4NT

[keylime]

Ditto Justin, so much so I've printed a copy out for discussion - it is that lucid to me.

[skjaeran]

Double - nice posts Justin (and Mike).