jmc Posted October 29, 2007 Report Share Posted October 29, 2007 [hv=d=e&v=b&s=saj62hq1095d872c72]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] The auction is as follows by east west with NS silent throughout. 1C 16+ artificial1D 0-7 artificial or impossible negative showing any 4441 8+1H either hearts and a second suit or 20+ balanced, asks partner to bid 1s as relay1S forced as a relay unless a very weak distriutional hand4h described as a good hand with lots of hearts that may have gone through the relay in case the 1d bidder had the impossible negative or one of the weak distributional hands. Do you double 4H? I'll admit that at the table I didn't give it serious thought. This is the third round in a 7 round swiss team. You are doing well and playing against a quality team. jmc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted October 29, 2007 Report Share Posted October 29, 2007 No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted October 29, 2007 Report Share Posted October 29, 2007 why would i ever double? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjames Posted October 29, 2007 Report Share Posted October 29, 2007 Nope, declarer will probably know where the missing ♥'s are then. Besides the hand is not that good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted October 29, 2007 Report Share Posted October 29, 2007 I wouldn't either. Declarer thinks she has play opposite a 0-count and dummy may be quite a bit better than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keylime Posted October 29, 2007 Report Share Posted October 29, 2007 No, for a few reasons. 1. You do not want declarer to be double-dummying the trump suit, if dummy just happens to have the A/K of trumps. 2. You own a fiendish spade holding that might gain 2 tricks. 3. I'm leading a passive club (pard didn't double the artificial 1D response). Since you are likely ahead in the match or break even, this isn't the position to swing. You also want to make a lead that would make it sound as if things are rosy for declarer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 I love Xing. We are not going to get XXed unless declarer has 9 hearts, and we have 3 almost sure tricks so they won't make an overtrick. We can easily have 500 on this board with declarer just taking a shot and getting a poor trump split, and 590 isn't so terrible. I expect 200 most of the time, with 500 and 590 about equally likely. Declarer never has the stone nuts the way he bid or he will have tried for slam, so in a sense he is limited. Most people in this auction are counting AKJxxxx as 7 tricks, not 5. A good way to fight the (mathematically correct) super aggressive game bidding these days is to double them when they are getting bad splits. This is a good time to do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 The last time someone doubled me on a hand like this I endplayed them in trump to make. That would have never happened without the double. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 The last time someone doubled me on a hand like this I endplayed them in trump to make. That would have never happened without the double. lol, you probably didnt have 7 or 8 trumps with an almost entryless dummy when you did this, because if that was the case there is no way you could shorten yourself enough to perform said endplay. Oh, yeah, that will be the position here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 I really don't mind either double or not. But I'm sure I would double, only since dummy is going to be so weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 All that you know about the dummy is that it is 0-7 HCP and he does not have a very weak distributional hand. All that you know about declarer's hand is that he is willing to bid 4♥ opposite a bust. You do not know that dummy has no entries. For that matter, as far as you know, declarer has 10 cold tricks without an endplay. What do you think of this layout: [hv=n=sxxxxxhkjdxxxcxxx&w=sajxxhqt9xdxxxcxx&e=skqxxhdkxxxckxxxx&s=sha8xxxxxdaqjcaqj]399|300|[/hv] Without the double, declarer may go down, playing for 2-2 hearts or a singleton queen. With the double he may make an overtrick by taking finesses in hearts and one minor twice (this assumes that you don't give away the contract on the opening lead by leading something other than a spade). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 That seems a rather contrived layout, don't you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andy_h Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 X seems reasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 That seems a rather contrived layout, don't you think? Is it not consistent with the auction? Sure, it is contrived. But I just wanted to demonstrate that a perfectly normal lie of the cards consistent with the auction could easily produce 10 tricks after a double when declarer could go down without the double. There are a lot of other "contrived" layouts that are consistent with the auction that are cold for 10 tricks. Some might be cold even without the help of a double. How about this lie of the trump suit: Jx AK87xxx Without the double, would any reasonable declarer play towards the jack in dummy? Certainly not at matchpoints. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 Dealer: ????? Vul: ???? Scoring: Unknown ♠ xxxxx ♥ KJ ♦ xxx ♣ xxx ♠ AJxx ♥ QT9x ♦ xxx ♣ xx ♠ KQxx ♥ [space] ♦ Kxxx ♣ Kxxxx ♠ [space] ♥ A8xxxxx ♦ AQJ ♣ AQJ Without the double, declarer may go down, playing for 2-2 hearts or a singleton queen. Why do you assume they will be a novice without a double lol? Do you think 1 totally contrived layout means anything? I could just post a layout where they go for 800, lol, I'm sure that proves a lot. But at least I would contrive layouts that prove my point, rather than ones where declarers miss 100 % lines of play because there was no double, lol. By the way, I never said that doubling cannot give away the trump position. I just noted how silly it was to think that you will get endplayed in trumps on this hand because of your double, and I think it is something generic that pseudo-experts often say without thinking of how the hand will actually play out. Showing a hand where declarer picks up trumps after your double does not change this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 I don't know what contrived means but I'd say this is the normal lay out everyone should expect, maybe ♣K also in dummy. EDIT: Now I think of it, nobody would pass as East on this lay out it must not be true! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 Well thought out comment. Are you telling me, seriously, that you never made a contract on a trump endplay after a double like this one? I certainly have. All I was demonstrating by the layouts that I provided was that the contract could easily be cold, with or without the double. And, not only can the double give away the position of the heart suit so that declarer can make the hand where he might have gone down without the double, but it is also possible that he will go down less with the double than without. If he would be down 2 without the double and down one with the double, then the double does not gain anything. But if he is making with the double and down one without the double, then the double is silly. The responder can certainly have 2 entries opposite a strong hand. Assuming that declarer has a 7 card heart suit, and you are unlucky enough to lead declarer's void, he will be able to shorten himself down you your length and easily endplay you. If that makes me a pseudo-expert, fine. But I think you are likely to gain very little from the double and you risk a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 Art I don't deny they could make, like I said I don't think not-doubling is that bad. But your example is sort of ridiculous, you are assuming Axxxxxx for the 4♥ bid and two heart honors in the 0-7 dummy? That is not fair to assume or realistic. And like Justin said they should always make on that layout anyway. There is about a 0.0000002% chance of a trump endplay after this auction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 Originally when I saw this problem I wouldn't have doubled, because I've been trained 'never' to double just to alert opponents to an unexpected layout. But I've been persuaded the double is right on this hand. Of course it might make. The only question is whether your expected result from doubling- including the information you've given to declarer - is greater than by not doubling. The newspaper columns are full of contracts that only make because of a double, when declarer takes some obscure line. That's why you listen to the auction: I agree with Jdonn & Jlall's arguments that a trump endplay is vanishingly unlikely ON THIS AUCTION. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keylime Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 At first I thought Justin was on some bad cheese or something, but now that I have read and reread his arguments, I now not certain about whether to lay low or to smack 'em around like I was. For some reason I keep feeling that this is a Lauria-Versace type of a deal where they just shove to game on any notion... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 The newspaper columns are full of contracts that only make because of a double, when declarer takes some obscure line. That's why you listen to the auction: I agree with Jdonn & Jlall's arguments that a trump endplay is vanishingly unlikely ON THIS AUCTION. I am sure that was what my opponent thought holding KJTx of diamonds behind me with a side AK when I unilaterally bid up to 5D and I made it because of his double on a trump endplay. I have to admit, though, with the hand my opponent had, I would have doubled me. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtfanclub Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 One thing that hasn't been pointed out on this thread is that the auction isn't dead yet. Suppose dummy has a hand like: xxxxAxxxKxxxx That's a pretty spectacular hand to have across a partner who can make 4♥ across a 0 count with no hearts. Not only is 4♥X going to make (doubler's partner has a jack at most), but they likely weren't going to stop at 4. They may have tried the 50-50 6♥, down 2, but why get greedy? Maybe they'd have stopped at 5, which turns out to be a lock unless hearts are 4-0 with the 4 on declarer's left....the very holding you turn out to have. Even in a normal Precision auction, responder is more likely to have the 7 than the 0. In this auction, with responder denying a very weak unbalanced hand, and with 11 hearts likely known a very weak balanced hand is less likely than normal. If there's a bust at the table, it's probably not the 1♦ bidder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 If there's a bust at the table, it's probably not the 1♦ bidder. Please explain why partner is more likely to be broke than the 1D bidder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 Declarer has a lot of trumps, so in order to endplay us he's going to have to shorten himself several times, which seems tough since it'd be somewhat surprising to find dummy with more than one entry. On a similar note, declarer's chances to pick up the trump suit rely on dummy having at least two trumps with at least one honor. While this is possible, I bet declarer's trumps are long/good for the 4♥ bid which doesn't leave much for trumps in dummy. Putting these together, I doubt this is going to be a hand where declarer has a big play problem to solve -- probably it just makes or it doesn't. So it comes down to "is 4♥ going to make"? Declarer should have at least seven hearts and we have four, making dummy and partner both favorites to hold heart shortage. While this does mean dummy is likely to have an unbalanced hand, I don't know that a 4144 zero-count bids something other than 1♠ over 1♥ -- my impression is that bidding would show an actual suit in a weak unbalanced hand? So partner and dummy are roughly equally likely to hold the remaining cards. Seems like double is a good proposition -- yes you will get some -790s in there, but there should be enough +500s to balance it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtfanclub Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 If there's a bust at the table, it's probably not the 1♦ bidder. Please explain why partner is more likely to be broke than the 1D bidder. Because there's a wide variety of 0-2 point hands that the one diamond bidder could have that do not bid 1 spade over 1 heart. There's also a wide variety of 6-7 hcp hands your partner could have that do not pass 1 diamond. For example, the 1 diamond bidder could have a 7 count 6-1-4-2 hand but I assume your partner could not. On the other hand, the 1 diamond bidder cannot have a 0 count 6-1-4-2 but I assume your partner could. That at least one of the two hands is going to be distributional increases the odds that your partner is broke and the 1♦ bidder is not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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