kfay Posted October 16, 2007 Report Share Posted October 16, 2007 [hv=d=n&v=n&n=s2hk43dk1095ckq762&s=sj86haqj86d3ca1054]133|200|Scoring: IMP1♥-(4♠)-5♥[/hv] W leads the ♠A, E dropping the K, and continues with the 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted October 16, 2007 Report Share Posted October 16, 2007 I ruff with the king. I disagree with 5♥, just for the record. Double seems better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfay Posted October 16, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2007 sorry. forgot to add 'you ruff with the king, RHO pitches a ♣'. now what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted October 16, 2007 Report Share Posted October 16, 2007 I see two spade 6's. I'm not nitpicking, I'd like to know what suit preference signal LHO gave. Taking into account that LHO has 8 spades and RHO 1 it is still about 46% chance that hearts split 3-2, a larger chance than that they split 4-1 onside. Two of the five 4-1 splits is with a singleton 9 or 10 on my left so the odds by far favor cashing a top heart. If the 9 or 10 appears on my left I will enter dummy and take the hook. The chance that LHO has stiff 10 or 9 is about 16% while the chance that lefty has 109 doubleton or 109x is about 7.5%. The difference seems large enough to risk a club ruff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfay Posted October 16, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2007 Sorry, LHO continued the 7. Doesn't like either minor, presumably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted October 16, 2007 Report Share Posted October 16, 2007 Glad that Han bothered to calculate the odds... with those I'd finesse the ♥8 on the way back... lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted October 16, 2007 Report Share Posted October 16, 2007 I didn't, I just plunked them into Pavlicek's calculator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Echognome Posted October 16, 2007 Report Share Posted October 16, 2007 I didn't, I just plunked them into Pavlicek's calculator. You're such a plunker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walddk Posted October 16, 2007 Report Share Posted October 16, 2007 If you took a first round finesse with the 8 and it worked because LHO had a small singleton, congratulations. Hard to argue with success, but if you played like that, you played against the odds. The 8 wins when West has the remaining small heart singleton but loses when he has stiff 9, 10, and 9x, 10x. Even against 9xx and 10xx; not likely, I agree, but still. I agree with Han's line. Roland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted October 17, 2007 Report Share Posted October 17, 2007 correction: "withOUT those, I'd finesse" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfay Posted October 17, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2007 correction: "withOUT those, I'd finesse" This is exactly how I felt, and so I finessed the 8. I was so certain that hearts were breaking 4-1 that I didn't even consider the added percentage of the 3-2 split. When confronted with the numbers, though, it's blatant that mine was the wrong line :P . I was just figuring it was 3:2 against the stiff 9/10. Anyways, it worked out for me this time: [hv=d=n&v=n&n=s2hk43dk1095ckq762&w=saq1097543h5dj64cj&e=skh10972daq872c983&s=sj86haqj86d3ca1054]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted October 17, 2007 Report Share Posted October 17, 2007 Just goes to show that excessive thinking can be harmful... LOLOLOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfay Posted October 17, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2007 Let's pretend that your RHO 'flashes' you 4 hearts, though. Do you finesse now? I played this hand in the Tuesday BBO Juniors tournament and Rich Reisig played the same way that you did, Han. Yet when I asked him about it he didn't quote any percentages, just the 'humiliation factor' if you lose to the stiff 9 or 10 or doubleton or whatever. Seeing that I'm surrounded by numbers men I ask: you'd take the finesse if you knew hearts were 4-1, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted October 17, 2007 Report Share Posted October 17, 2007 you'd take the finesse if you knew hearts were 4-1, right? There are 3 4-1 breaks when the double finesse is right (stiff 2, 5 and 7 at LHO) and only 2 (stiff 9/T) where the high heart is right. So yes, it needs to be taken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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