jdonn Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 [hv=d=n&v=b&s=skt83htda763ct843]133|100|Scoring: IMPP 1NT P 3♦P 3♠ P 4NTP 5♠ X PP 6♥ P PP[/hv] 1NT = 15-173♦ = good hand with hearts3♠ = cuebid4NT = keycard5♠ = 2 + queen Perhaps you wouldn't have doubled 5♠ but too bad. What do you lead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 spade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mbodell Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 I haven't seen the hand but I voted trump. My K♠ is behind the A♠ and I've got the A♦ and enough clubs to hopefully stop them from running. Trump lead seems like the best, safest lead for me to make. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 I'd lead a ♣, but I'm not convinced this is the best choice. Trumps is quite useless, ♦A is dangerous to rectify the count for a possible squeeze, and ♠ is dangerous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halo Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 Spade. I am not sure what the opponents auction is about. For example, where is the King of diamonds? Why did South not bid 6H, does he not have King of diamonds or King of clubs? Since I don't know what is going on, I'll just try to set up a spade trick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 Spade too. I'd be curious what the agreement about the pass after the x of 5♠ means and what the table discussion was about. I really didn't like what was led at the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 I have just doubled 5♠, asking for a spade lead. We want to set this contract; the value of a lead-director for a set is much greater than the risk of the doubled contract making. The opponents have placed me on lead. Partner knows that I will be thinking about leading a spade. Partner knows that I have the Ace or King of spades and the Opener has the other one. I probably have the King for my double. Partner knows, therefore, that I am wondering whether he has the Queen. His pass of 6♥ should tell me whether he has the Queen. If pass says "got it," then double says "ain't got it, and ain't got a good chance of setting this." That makes little sense. So, double would say, "Got it." Pass means he "ain't got it." I will not lead a spade, therefore. We are in trouble. I might need to lead the diamond Ace immediately, to get off of a throw-in. However, that may cost a trick in diamonds. I think the risk of a throw-in is greater than the risk of establishing a critical diamond. So, I now lead diamond Ace. The up-side is that the guy at the other tabel elected a spade into the AQ, whether the Queen is on dummy or in hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keylime Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 I think leading the AD is a give up play here. A club lead is too passive against this slam. A trump lead, why? So, that leads a spade. It's mildly aggressive from leading away from the K, and it's the safest lead to set the contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 So, that leads a spade. It's mildly aggressive from leading away from the K, and it's the safest lead to set the contract. A spade lead is horrible if partner's pass denied the spade Queen, of course. If that occurred, the spade King has more chance of success. At least I might smother dummy's stiff Queen (if it is there) and avoid a late pitch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 So, that leads a spade. It's mildly aggressive from leading away from the K, and it's the safest lead to set the contract. A spade lead is horrible if partner's pass denied the spade Queen, of course. If that occurred, the spade King has more chance of success. At least I might smother dummy's stiff Queen (if it is there) and avoid a late pitch. Does anyone else read anything into partner's final pass? I sure don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 I'm sure that I would lead a club. I do think a double from partner asks for a spade lead, but the non-double is only a mild deterrent for the spade lead (i.e. I have seen/made too many doubles where the lead requested by the double is the only lead to hold the contract to just making, so will not "automatically double" just because of holding the ♠Q). Leading the ace of diamonds does seem kind of like giving up. Where is the ♦A going? It certainly will not be pitched on spades. If it can be pitched on clubs, then our "spade trick" that we're hoping will set the contract can also be pitched on clubs. I suppose there could be a trump trick. Leading a spade could be right, but I don't like leading from this kind of holding. It's too often the only lead to allow the contract to make. I know the spade ace is on my right, and it's hardly far fetched for opener to have ♠AQ in which case spade is a terrible lead. Opponents have been careful to get me on lead rather than my partner after my lead director, perhaps because they think a spade lead from my hand is safe? A trump lead seems bad here, since it's possible partner has Jxxx or the like, and I wouldn't expect all that many ruffs in the short hand (which opened 1NT) anyway. It seems like leading a club has to be better than a trump, since it's equally "passive" but sometimes finds partner with the king behind the ace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bid_em_up Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 So, that leads a spade. It's mildly aggressive from leading away from the K, and it's the safest lead to set the contract. A spade lead is horrible if partner's pass denied the spade Queen, of course. If that occurred, the spade King has more chance of success. At least I might smother dummy's stiff Queen (if it is there) and avoid a late pitch. Does anyone else read anything into partner's final pass? I sure don't. I was watching the hand at the time, and thought that it would make a lot of sense for doublers partner to be able to say "go ahead with the spade lead" by doubling 6H or for it to say "I have nothing in spades, don't lead one if you need help from my hand". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 No way would I read anything into partner's pass of 6♥. Ken's view has some attraction, but I doubt that anyone actually has that agreement... And I am not at all sure that it makes real sense anyway. I think the risk that the Queen-showing double costs 6 imps (more if they redouble) is under-rated. From partner's perspective, he doesn't know you hold an Ace: the opps may have all the keycards and simply know that their combined strength argues against making 13 tricks... after all, opener is well-defined. Now, if we KNEW that responder's pass of 5♠ doubled showed a 2 card holding, there is more to be said for the queen showing double, and maybe, at the table, we'd know that... but maybe the pass merely said 'I want you to play this contract'. And even if it showed two spades, why can't opener have clubs adequate to provide a dumping ground for the slow spade loser(s)? So, to me, the risk of the loss of 6+ imps on a routine slam makes the queen-showing double borderline at best, and certainly not something any pair should invent at the table. As for the lead: I go with a spade. I can't give the opps time on this hand... at least, that's the way I feel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted October 10, 2007 Report Share Posted October 10, 2007 Of course, one solution for one objection to the double, meaning "go ahead and lead the spade," would be for the person who makes a lead-directing double before the opponents have determined who will declare the contract to not make that double unless he has enough to enable the double from his partner. Same for a "lead-director" if you know that you will be on lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted October 11, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2007 From memory so I hope no cards are off [hv=d=n&v=b&n=sxxxhxxdtxxckqxxx&w=sqjxhaj9xxxxdjcax&e=saxxhkqxdkq9xxcjx&s=skt8xhxdaxxxctxxx]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Club or bust this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apollo81 Posted October 11, 2007 Report Share Posted October 11, 2007 A black suit lead is clearly right on this hand. Which one works is pretty random IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joshs Posted October 11, 2007 Report Share Posted October 11, 2007 I find partner's KQ. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted October 11, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2007 I have no strong opinion since I'm biased anyway from watching the hand. But it seems to me like the opponents have found a way to rightside the spades after my double, so I'm not at all keen on that lead any more (it would obviously be the normal lead otherwise.) So I like to think I would have found a club, but really I don't know. Partner didn't need KQ btw, just K :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted October 12, 2007 Report Share Posted October 12, 2007 I have no strong opinion since I'm biased anyway from watching the hand. But it seems to me like the opponents have found a way to rightside the spades after my double, so I'm not at all keen on that lead any more (it would obviously be the normal lead otherwise.) So I like to think I would have found a club, but really I don't know. Partner didn't need KQ btw, just K :P What makes you think they right-sided it? RHO pretty much had no choice except to bid 6H. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted October 12, 2007 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2007 I have no strong opinion since I'm biased anyway from watching the hand. But it seems to me like the opponents have found a way to rightside the spades after my double, so I'm not at all keen on that lead any more (it would obviously be the normal lead otherwise.) So I like to think I would have found a club, but really I don't know. Partner didn't need KQ btw, just K :P What makes you think they right-sided it? RHO pretty much had no choice except to bid 6H. Several things make me think that. But my biggest clue during the auction is that the one who passed over the double did have a choice. And my biggest clue after is that they did in fact rightside, which there is some finite chance happened on purpose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted October 12, 2007 Report Share Posted October 12, 2007 My usual reasoning on this sort of hand is that there are two possibilities where we can beat the contract: (1) It's a race, and we need to get our tricks before they get theirs. (2) They just don't have enough tricks, so we don't want to give them trick twelve. In case (1), we need to establish a trick. But any lead except trumps could do this -- a spade lead will be right if partner has ♠Q, or a club lead if partner has ♣K, or a diamond lead if partner has ♦Q. I don't think any of these suits is really much more likely to be right than the others. It seems likely that LHO has some sort of control in clubs and diamonds, so any one of these cards partner has is going to be properly positioned. I don't think it's somehow "much more likely" that partner has ♠Q rather than ♣K. It seems like case (1) is pretty much just a guess. However in case (2), leading away from an honor is much more likely to give trick twelve than leading from small cards. Putting these together, I'd lead a club. Then again, I seem to be much more a fan of passive leads than most players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted October 12, 2007 Report Share Posted October 12, 2007 I have no strong opinion since I'm biased anyway from watching the hand. But it seems to me like the opponents have found a way to rightside the spades after my double, so I'm not at all keen on that lead any more (it would obviously be the normal lead otherwise.) So I like to think I would have found a club, but really I don't know. Partner didn't need KQ btw, just K :P What makes you think they right-sided it? RHO pretty much had no choice except to bid 6H. Several things make me think that. But my biggest clue during the auction is that the one who passed over the double did have a choice. And my biggest clue after is that they did in fact rightside, which there is some finite chance happened on purpose. Let me say it differently. If the opponents have the ♠Q, then obviously they have right-sided it. If they don't, then they couldn't. But we knew already that the spade lead works when partner has the queen and won't work otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apollo81 Posted October 12, 2007 Report Share Posted October 12, 2007 I have no strong opinion since I'm biased anyway from watching the hand. But it seems to me like the opponents have found a way to rightside the spades after my double, so I'm not at all keen on that lead any more (it would obviously be the normal lead otherwise.) So I like to think I would have found a club, but really I don't know. Partner didn't need KQ btw, just K :) What makes you think they right-sided it? RHO pretty much had no choice except to bid 6H. Several things make me think that. But my biggest clue during the auction is that the one who passed over the double did have a choice. And my biggest clue after is that they did in fact rightside, which there is some finite chance happened on purpose. The opps would have chosen to make opener declarer regardless of which of the other 3 players at the table has the ♠Q, so we can take no inference from that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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