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How to compete


kfay

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[hv=d=w&v=n&n=sa9843h2dkj107caj9&w=sq6hkj43da53c10763&e=skj7haq1095dq862c2&s=s1052h876d94ckq854]399|300|Scoring: IMP

W N E S

P 1 2 2

????[/hv]

 

Seems to me that the auction is going to diverge from here. What do you think is the best action by players at this point?

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With the West hand, I make a game try by bidding 4 (bid game and then try to make it).

 

By bidding 4, you give the opponents the last guess. Maybe you will make 4, maybe you won't. Maybe they will make 4, maybe they won't. But I am not going to give them the chance to find out where they really belong by bidding 3 and allowing them to pass, bid 3 competitively (i.e., non-invitational) or double (maximal - inviting game).

 

It is unlikely that 4 will get doubled, as we rate to have a very strong trump fit. In any event, it turns out that 4 is a lucky make. They have to bid 4 to salvage any kind of reasonable result over the 4 bid, and our side will go plus.

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Well seeing the hands makes me want to bid 4, but before that I would only bid 3 by West. A slight underbid with 4 trumps maybe, but Q looks to be wasted.

 

As West I can tell that almost everyone else at the table is on minimum values for their bids (assuming ~12 pts for opening, ~12 for 2/1 overcall, ~6 for a 2 raise). In particular, this means South is likely close to a minimum for his 2 bid, which means he's likely to have exactly 3 spades since with 4 (and likely shortness since we've got 9+) he might have preempted 3. If South's got exactly 3 spades and I've only got 2, partner's fairly likely to have 2-3 spades. With a likely 2 quick spade losers I'm not wild about 4s - if somehow we only lose one spade trick it's because partner's got the A or K wasted opposite my short suit with our 5-6 HCP only producing a single spade trick.

 

On minimum hands, I want to have a decent suit to overcall 2 with only a 5 card suit. Since West can see the KJ, he can pretty much place the A or Q, probably both, with East based on both length and suit quality concerns. Thus we're also likely to have duplicated heart values, which means more outside losers.

 

I guess it depends if you're bidding 4 to make or as a bluff against 4. It might work as a bluff to push them too high, but this only works when they've got extra spades and heart shortness. When they've got extra spades my Q is getting dropped and all our heart values are worth a single trick. Am I really that sure I want to try to push them to 4 under these conditions?

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I would be more inclined to bid 4 with xx in spades than with Qx. My possession of their Queen, in a context in which it is unlikely to be a working card (how should I know partner has KJx?) means they rate to hold other values of a defensive nature.

 

As it is, I can't honestly answer what I would bid at the table, but I suspect it would be only 3

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