A real world class blind spot

[Finch]

Both declarers went off. Let me give you the play in the room where the Dutch were declaring.

 

[hv=d=w&n=s10852h104dj87ca872&s=shaqj87532d4ck1096]133|200|Scoring: IMP

3♠ P 4♠ 5♥

P P x all pass[/hv]

 

This was the auction in both rooms. EW were not vulnerable, I can't remember if NS were or not.

 

West leads the ace of spades.

Plan the play.

 

(Looking at the full results, this problem was faced at 9 tables and 8 declarers went off. But sitting in a relaxed mood in front the computer the winning line is definitely the correct one.)

[bid_em_up]

Note that at least 4 times, declarer received the opening lead of the 2 of spades, and still got it wrong.

 

N/S were vul, E/W were not.

 

Going off 1 in 5H x'd shouldn't be that bad, since E/W make 5/6 spades, but only 6 pairs bid over 5H.

 

I think its a lot tougher to spot the winning play if you are sitting at the table than it is looking at all 4 hands on vugraph. I don't agree that it is the correct one though, at least not on the spade A lead. It certainly should be apparent after the lead of the 2 though.

[Guest Jlall]

Easy on paper to play a diamond at trick 2. I think I would find this at the table but who knows.

[helene_t]

Stupid question: I can speculate on a number of reasons for playing a diamond. I suppose the clue is that you need to break EW's communication?

[ArcLight]

My line:

 

 

RHO Doubled , implying Kxx in trumps, and some defensive values such as QJxx in Clubs, or perhaps the A or K of Diamonds.

 

LHO might or might not have the Spade K. His suit is 6 or 7 cards. RHO raised implying its 6-3, but RHO might have teh AK in Dimes and a spade filler like the Q. And the Heart K.

 

1. Discard the stiff Dime, its a loser, might as well break communications.

 

2. ruff the spade or dime continuation. I don't fear RHO ruffing anything

 

3. The tricky part - I want to lead a club to the Ace and then a club back, finessing. I have just 1 entry to Dummy.

Club to Ace.

 

4. Heart 10, running it. If it wins, and LHO follows, we are golden. Lead a club and cover RHOs card.

 

When next in, play the trump ace.

 

Losers - ducked spade on trick 1, and a club.

 

If LHO shows out, finesse in hearts, or cover the K and pull trumps.

 

Now we need Clubs to be 3-2.

 

[Cascade]

Easy on paper to play a diamond at trick 2. I think I would find this at the table but who knows.

Why not play a diamond at trick one?

[Guest Jlall]

Easy on paper to play a diamond at trick 2. I think I would find this at the table but who knows.

Why not play a diamond at trick one?

no reason really, is there any difference?

[Fluffy]

you keep East off lead if clubs are 0-5

[ArcLight]

you keep East off lead if clubs are 0-5

And how are you making if thats the case?

 

You can't get to dummy to take a trump finesse. So you must lay down the ace and hope the stiff King drops with LHO? Why is RHO making a penalty double with xx in trumps, and an outside AK in Dimes?

 

If Clubs are 5-0 I think you are losing:

1 dime

1 club

1 trump - unless the K is stiff, and taht doenst follow from the bidding

[jdonn]

you keep East off lead if clubs are 0-5

And how are you making if thats the case?

 

You can't get to dummy to take a trump finesse. So you must lay down the ace and hope the stiff King drops with LHO? Why is RHO making a penalty double with xx in trumps, and an outside AK in Dimes?

 

If Clubs are 5-0 I think you are losing:

1 dime

1 club

1 trump - unless the K is stiff, and taht doenst follow from the bidding

There is not a very strong inference about the hearts IMO. East can just be doubling with any good hand.

[Finch]

Stupid question: I can speculate on a number of reasons for playing a diamond. I suppose the clue is that you need to break EW's communication?

Yes.

[hv=n=s10xxxh10xdjxxca87x&w=saqjxxxhxxd109xxxc&e=skxxhkdakqxcqjxxx&s=shaqjxxxxxdxck109x]399|300|[/hv]

 

At lots of tables the play was spade lead ruffed, club towards dummy ruffed, diamond over, club ruffed one off.

 

In order to prevent this, you either play a diamond at trick 2 or discard your diamond at trick 1 (I much prefer this line, it would cause a lot more amusement at the table, especially if you pretend to look surprised when it's not a heart...)

 

Now you win the next trick - whatever it is - an play a club towards dummy. If it is ruffed, you will need the remaining hearts 1-1. (If it is ruffed on your right, you'll be off).

 

I think its a lot tougher to spot the winning play if you are sitting at the table than it is looking at all 4 hands on vugraph. I don't agree that it is the correct one though

 

It's certainly easier to spot when you are presented it as a problem, because you remember to stop and think 'what can go wrong'

 

But it's definitely the right line. One you decide that the right conceptual line is to take the heart finesse and hope clubs play for 1 loser i.e. use the CA as an entry to take the finesse, it is zero cost to make this play. There is no layout on which it costs, compared to ruffing and playing a club at once, and this is layout on which it gains. Therefore it must be right.

 

[You can argue that an alternative line is to lay down the HA at trick two playing for singleton HK or a favourable club lie, but I'm pretty certain that is a worse line]

 

What is interesting is not just how many people went off - and as is mentioned, about half got the two of spades lead which should raise alarm bells - but that the people who went off included Rodwell, who is

i) arguably one of the world's best declarer players

ii) at the end of a vital RR match in which so far they'd had a very good card

 

The only pair to make 5Hx on a spade lead were one of the australians, thoughI don't know if they found the safety play or did something different.

[ArcLight]

>Now you win the next trick - whatever it is - an play a club towards dummy. If it is ruffed, you will need the remaining hearts 1-1. (If it is ruffed on your right, you'll be off).

 

 

Frances,

Wont you be down if the club is ruffed?

You have a spade/dime loser for 1 trick, a cluff ruff for anotehr lost trick.

 

You can't make your remaining clubs, you will lose one more.

 

It looks like the only way to play this (double dummy) is Lay down the ace of hearts, then a heart to the 10, and then finesse a club against east.

[Guest Jlall]

Arclight, you will be able to squeeze them in the minors.

[Winstonm]

Arclight, you will be able to squeeze them in the minors.

Who would have thought the key cards would be the Jxx of diamonds in the north hand? :)

[bid_em_up]

I think its a lot tougher to spot the winning play if you are sitting at the table than it is looking at all 4 hands on vugraph. I don't agree that it is the correct one though

 

It's certainly easier to spot when you are presented it as a problem, because you remember to stop and think 'what can go wrong'

 

But it's definitely the right line. One you decide that the right conceptual line is to take the heart finesse and hope clubs play for 1 loser i.e. use the CA as an entry to take the finesse, it is zero cost to make this play. There is no layout on which it costs, compared to ruffing and playing a club at once, and this is layout on which it gains. Therefore it must be right.

 

[You can argue that an alternative line is to lay down the HA at trick two playing for singleton HK or a favourable club lie, but I'm pretty certain that is a worse line]

 

What is interesting is not just how many people went off - and as is mentioned, about half got the two of spades lead which should raise alarm bells - but that the people who went off included Rodwell, who is

i) arguably one of the world's best declarer players

ii) at the end of a vital RR match in which so far they'd had a very good card

I won't argue anything other than I think its unlikely that LHO is going for a club ruff holding Kx of hearts (I suppose he could be expecting partner to win the spade, club ruff, win a diamond, club ruff, I just think its unlikely). He is not going for a club ruff when also holding a stiff heart. If that was the case, then he started with 1 heart and no clubs and wd be 6-6 or 7-5 in spades and diamonds, then he is likely to hold at least 1 diamond honor so the squeeze would fail (I know he did not, but he certainly is likely to have one).

 

So my thinking is, once LHO has screamed for a club ruff by leading the spade two, he must hold either Kxx of hearts or xx of hearts. In the 1st case, it doesn't matter what you do (you will always be down), and in the second case, laying down the Ace is the sure winning play. Also in the first case, RHO holding a heart void would have likely have bid 5S over 5H.

 

So to me (at least) all the clues are there to point to laying down the heart A. Even if it is not considered to be the "right" technical line. Had LHO at Rodwell's table led the Ace of spades, then I would agree with your line, but not after the club void has been so blatantly advertised.

[nige1]