Inferences

[Walddk]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sk76hj10dj76cakq65&s=saj1094hkq942d32c10]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

I played this hand in a team match on BBO the other day. I am not convinced that my line was with the odds although the contract made. Our 2/1 auction was:

 

1♠ - 2♣

2♥ - 2♠

4♠ - Pass

 

Lead: ♦10

 

RHO won the ace, cashed ♦K and switched to ♥6. Low from hand and West followed with the 3. You are in dummy. How do you proceed from here?

 

Roland

[blackshoe]

Lead the other heart.

[Walddk]

Lead the other heart.

I did. East won the ace, West discarding a diamond. So they could have defeated the contract. Not your concern though. East now exited with a club to the 10, jack and queen in dummy.

 

Now what?

 

Roland

[blackshoe]

Now it gets dicey. :D

 

It seems that East started with five diamonds to the AKQ (or did West discard the Q?) and the ♥A. Does he have the ♠Q, or does his partner? Hard to say at first look (I'm disregarding the possible spoiler in your "they could have defeated the contract"). B) West has a singleton ♥, so East has the remaining 5. East also has a club - he followed to one round. So we know 11 of his 13 cards. He can't have more than 2 spades. This seems to be a restricted choice situation. But, not to be too hasty, I play on clubs, pitching hearts from hand until I need to ruff or overruff. What happens now? If East ruffs, it's easy. Overruff, play ♠A, finesse West for the ♠Q. If East discards but refuses to ruff, at least I now have a full count of his hand. If he has one spade, I play the spades the same way. If he has two, I'm on a restricted choice guess - and I'll guess to play it the same way. If East has the ♠Q, I'm down one. :)

 

I note that we can't put hypotheticals in the hand templates - they won't accept parentheses or question marks. Oh, well. B)

[Walddk]

It seems that East started with five diamonds to the AKQ

I don't think so. Remember that he won the ace first, then cashed the king. Furthermore, he did not continue diamonds at trick 3, so the inference must be that he started with AK doubleton.

 

It seems like 100% after he tried a *low* heart at trick 3, trying to get his partner in to cash ♦Q or give him a ruff.

 

Roland

[karlson]

I'm not sure that it's 100% that east has AK doubleton in diamonds. He might have switched being pretty sure the third diamond is not cashing (not sure what west's spot meant if anything) and looking for two quick heart tricks in case declarer had something like AQJxx Kxxx xx Jx.

 

In any case, I think there's a pretty strong inference that east doesn't have the spade queen. Firstly with a decent chance at a trump trick, he might not have tried the HA underlead at all, but more importantly, if he does have it, he must surely be able to place declarer with the rest of the high cards, and would play for the heart ruff.

 

In fact, I probably would have played a spade to the ace and run the SJ after winning the first heart. This gave them another chance to beat me if lefty has Q8x(x).

[blackshoe]

And I thought I was doing so well! :)

 

Ah, well, back to the drawing board. Now it looks like West started with six diamonds, a singleton heart, and at least one club. Playing on clubs may not be such a good idea now.

 

East still has five hearts, but now only 2 diamonds. And one club, at least. So eight cards known in each hand. Not much help there.

 

If West has ♠Q8(x), he can win the Q at some point if I play on clubs. What if I play on hearts? He can force the K with the 8, and I'm still guessing, but now I have to finesse into him. Don't like that.

 

Screw it. The coin came up heads. I play East for the Queen of trumps. Do I make it?

[pclayton]

I'm not sure that it's 100% that east has AK doubleton in diamonds. He might have switched being pretty sure the third diamond is not cashing (not sure what west's spot meant if anything) and looking for two quick heart tricks in case declarer had something like AQJxx Kxxx xx Jx.

 

In any case, I think there's a pretty strong inference that east doesn't have the spade queen. Firstly with a decent chance at a trump trick, he might not have tried the HA underlead at all, but more importantly, if he does have it, he must surely be able to place declarer with the rest of the high cards, and would play for the heart ruff.

 

In fact, I probably would have played a spade to the ace and run the SJ after winning the first heart. This gave them another chance to beat me if lefty has Q8x(x).

Bingo. Looking at the club suit in dummy, its very possible you have 3 pitches for your (remaining) 3 hearts. If you had solid spades and K-empty 4th of hearts, this is the only way to beat the hand if your spades are solid and clubs are a source of tricks.

 

I think its better to pop K♥ and run the spade to pick up Qxxx on your left. I think you can still survive if hearts are 3-3, after ♥K, ♠J, ♠10, ♠K, ♥J overtaking.

 

If that was the case, the defense has really blundered by not tapping you at T3.

[mikeh]

Well, the defence seems unlikely to have been able to tap you at trick 3 because the diamonds seem to be 6=2, with AK tight.

 

However, I agree that the underlead of the ♥ smacks of defensive desperation, understandable once West turns up with the club J... possession of which likely would have assured you of 5 club tricks from East's p.o.v.

 

If I were sitting with Qxx Axxxx AK xxx, I doubt that I'd try the low heart.. there is too much chance of S having 6 spades or partner having Jx.

 

Finally, LHO did not lead his stiff heart from a hand with otherwise limited defensive prospects. It is a fairly common tactic to not lead a stiff if you hope to get in on a trump hook... and then play for the ruff if possible.

 

So I have inferences from East's desperate underlead and West's non-stiff lead, both telling me that West holds the trump Queen.

 

Having got myself in dummy, I don't think I can deal with a 4-1 trump break, even with a stiff 8 on my right. If I ruff a minor (presumably a diamond) back to my hand, west refuses to cover from Qxxx and I end up endplayed on board. So I play a spade to my hand and run the J, playing for 3=2 or stiff Q on my right ((I'd bet heavy odds against that holding)

[mikeh]

the dreaded double post ;)

[Finch]

There is a very slight inference that West has the SQ, and East was hoping that West would win an early spade, play a heart back and get a trump promotion. But I don't believe this, I think East was simply hoping you were about to mis-guess hearts looking at AQJxx(x) Kxxx xx J(x) or similar (and/or East has 3 clubs and think they are running).

 

The other way to look at it is that East has AK doubleton diamond (playing the ace then the king), and has 5 hearts, and by inference has 3 clubs (the low heart back suggests he thinks the clubs are running) which gives him 3 spades, so maybe we should play him for the SQ on length grounds.

 

However, if East had the SQ I think there is a very strong inference that he would have played a third heart, playing partner to hold something juicy in spades for a trump promotion, rather than this poxy club.

 

Also, West didn't lead a singleton heart but instead lead from Q10 of diamonds.

 

I think that West has the SQ.

But I also think this inference is possibly over-obscure.

[Walddk]

Facts:

- 1A. Hearts are 1-5.

- 2A. West did not lead his singleton heart.

- 3A. West has ♣J.

 

Assumptions:

- 1B. Diamonds are 6-2.

- 2B. East feared that clubs are running, so he rates to have three small ones.

- 3B. West's shape is therefore 2-1-6-4 and East's 3-5-2-3.

- 4B. Odds are 3:2 for ♠Q with East, but ...

- 5B. West has ♠Q because of 2A.

 

Why did East "panic" at trick 3?

 

Conclusion:

- 1D. East does not have ♠Q.

- 2D. He would want to show as many high cards as possible if he had.

- 3D. He would therefore have cashed ♥A, hoping to score ♠Q.

 

Mike and Frances are on the same wavelength, and they would also have made it.

 

Roland

[pclayton]

I presume East had 8x(x) of spades? Otherwise East could have given his pard a trump promotion who might have held Q8x.

[Walddk]

I presume East had 8x(x) of spades? Otherwise East could have given his pard a trump promotion who might have held Q8x.

8xx, yes.