slam regrets?

[matmat]

[hv=d=n&v=e&n=s32hakt86dkqt3ca4&s=saqt6hjdaj98765cj]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

we managed to get to 6♦, which is a fair contract. (fair = ice cold, unless there is something i am missing).

 

would you want to be in 7♦ (anyone wanna put a % on it)? how would you propose to get there, if so? (if north makes a high level club cue/kc answer, east will double).

[Finch]

Without getting too sophisticated, single dummy 7 seems to need the Queen of hearts tripleton (or Q9 or Q7 doubleton on our left) or the spade finesse, less hearts 7-0 on our left, which is about 64%

 

p.s. 6D is off if LHO is 0-7 or 7-0 in the majors and trumps are 1-1, , or is 7510 or 5710. So it's not quite ice cold....

[ycos]

I dont want to be in 7♦, but the chance to make it is better then 60%.

-Q♥ can be in 3

-One opponent can have Q9♥ in 2.

-LHO can have Q7♥ in 2

-LHO can have Q♥ in 4 and K♠, and is squeezed.

I 'll never bid 7 without ♠ control in N.

Ex.: 1♥ - 2♦

3♦ - 3♥(cue)

4♣(deny K of ♠)-4NT or 6♦

[drinbrasil]

To make the math of chances when playing (i cant rate more squeeze chances in play from start) i think is something like this

(i am not sure, you can correct me):

 

Chance for Q♥ 3rd or 2nd = 35%, from 65% no sucess you have the ♠finesse, so you have 35%+32,5%=67,5%

 

So now you have to think against opps. All will bid 6 or 7.

So need calculate your chance to be good against 6.

 

Not VUL

You bid and win 7♦ in 67,5% of cases, winning 11imps

You bid and go down 1 in 32,5% of cases losing 14 imps

 

your expectative in this 7 is positive imps so 7 is ok.

[Finch]

Chance for Q♥ 3rd or 2nd = 35%, from 65% no sucess you have the ♠finesse, so you have 35%+32,5%=67,5%

Qx is not enough, you need four heart tricks. The only doubletons that work are Q7 or Q9 on your left.

 

LHO can have Q♥ in 4 and K♠, and is squeezed.

 

No. You play, I'll defend, you are going off!

 

There are some double dummy squeeze chances, for example when RHO has Qx or singleton Q, but you won't play for them single dummy because they require given up on higher probability layouts.

 

You can also pick up 97 doubleton on your left, but then you give up Q97 on your left.

[bid_em_up]

Qx is not enough, you need four heart tricks.  The only doubletons that work are Q7 or Q9 on your left.

Q9 on your right doesn't work also?

[Finch]

...or Q9 on your right...

[drinbrasil]

To make the math of chances when playing (i cant rate more squeeze chances in play from start) i think is something like this

(i am not sure, you can correct me):

 

Chance for Q♥ 3rd or 2nd = 35%, from 65% no sucess you have the ♠finesse, so you have 35%+32,5%=67,5%

 

So now you have to think against opps. All will bid 6 or 7.

So need calculate your chance to be good against 6.

 

Not VUL

You bid and win 7♦ in 67,5% of cases, winning 11imps

You bid and go down 1 in 32,5% of cases losing 14 imps

 

your expectative in this 7 is positive imps so 7 is ok.

Just now saw the 9 missed also, but you win all cases Qxx 27% plus some Q9 and some Q7, add 1-2% for this, so 29% more 50% from 71% remaining, 35,5% you win with finesse, so chances of 7 around 62-63% is still good bet...

[skjaeran]

Since the chance for making the grand is more than 57% you'd want to bid the grand if you expect "the field" to bid at least to the 6-level.

 

So whether I'd want to bid the grand depends on what field I'm playing in. If it's a team match vs a strong team (or a strong pair at the other table) I'd want to bid the grand.

 

If it's a pairs event with a very strong field, I'd just barely like to bid the grand, certainly if I feel the need for a good board. In any normal field I'd be content to bid the small slam.

[pclayton]

I sure love the South hand with its straight flush and J's full of aces.

 

I don't think 6♦ is cold. They can ruff the opening lead and you'll have a nasty guess between a major squeeze and a finesse at T2. Sometimes you shouldn't get out of bed in the morning.

 

I think South can find out easily enough that North has the ♥AKxxx, ♣A and the ♦KQ. This is enough to get you to the low 60's for a grand and if North has another goodie like the ♥Q / ♥109, etc., its a grand you want to be in.

[Fluffy]

after

 

1♥-2♦

3♦-3♠

3NT

 

If I was South I'd blast 7♦ after blackwood, knowing slam is better than 50%, and maybe cold if partner has ♠K., or enough side tricks, even singleton spade. Letting north to judge is kinda hard, he cannot imagine south's hand.