The bigger gamble?

[han]

The 4 scenarios.

 

1. We make 4♠, they make 4♥.

 

2. We make 4♠ and they fail in 4♥.

 

3. We fail in 4♠, possibly doubled, and they make 4♥:

 

4. We fail in 4♠ and they fail in 4♥

 

Bidding 4♠ is right 3 out of 4 scenarios, but that really doesn't help us unless we can judge the relative likelihood of each. It seems clear to me that the 4th scenario, where passing is correct, is the most probable (I am assuming that even on a bad day, 4♠ won't go 800).

 

Is it more probable than the other 3 combined?

I know you know this mikeh, but I think I should object anyway.

 

Clearly just asking for the probabilities is not the right question, you should weigh each outcome with the IMP results. For example, scenario (1) is less likely than scenario (2), but the IMP changes between pulling and passing are much larger for (1) so it might still be a bigger factor.

[mikeh]

Quite right, Hannie. And it is even more complex than that (as I know you know :rolleyes: ). When comparing scenarios 1 and 2, for example, you have to assign probabilities to the chances of collecting 500 or 300 or 100 against 4♥.

 

When 4♠ fails, we have to estimate the odds of getting doubled and the size of the set, and so on.

 

All told, the assessment requires a subjective analysis of a lot of difficult to estimate possibilities. I overly-simplified it to the 4 main starting points.

[neilkaz]

Just pass. 4 tricks are easier than 11. Every time I make this call it seems like we nip them a trick.

Yes, Phil..but I made 4♠ today and it only required 10 tricks :rolleyes:

[paulg]

Partner's hand was the first of catch22's problems in this thread.

 

Suffice to say that you are trying to minimise the damage. Passing will concede -590 and bidding 4♠ will lose -800.

 

One hand proves little but imho the passers are winning the argument.

 

Paul