The bigger gamble?

[paulg]

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=sjxxxhxxdqxxxcqjx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

(4♥) - Dbl - (Pass) - ?[/hv]

You are South, vulnerable against not, in this expert game. Your call?

[ulven]

I'll pass. Apologizing if wrong.

[Gerben42]

Urgs... I'll bid 4♠, also apologizing if wrong, but I am taking out partner's takeout double as long as I have no trump trick and a biddable 4-card suit without going up one level.

 

Whatever your decision, try to look confident!

[Guest Jlall]

but I am taking out partner's takeout double

lol

[P_Marlowe]

4S.

 

X was for takeout, I have 4 spades, I bid

them.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[Guest Jlall]

Wow, third time I have seen someone mention taking out takeout Xs at the 4 level. It's the new fad.

[Gerben42]

I play TO doubles upto and including 4♠.

[helene_t]

According to the LOTT there are 18 tricks. If they have ten, it hardly matters (-500 vs -590). If they have 9, of course I must pass (+100 vs -100 or -200). If they have 8, bidding is a big winner (+620 vs +300), but then p might make a slam try and we lose.

 

Then again, depending on LHO's preempt style there might be positive LOTT adjustments. OTOH p rates to have a big hand in which case he needs not have classic shape. I think it's close. I voted pass.

[Codo]

To Helene: It may matter if they have ten tricks: There is a more then remote chance that they will bid 5 Heart, to make or as an insurance.

 

However, I have somewhere between zero and no defensive tricks, so I gamble 4 Spade. Bad luck, pd was looking at Kxx, Kx,AKxx,AKxx and nothing makes in any direction? Bad luck.

But maybe he looks at KQxx,x,AKxx,Axxx and 4 Spade is a big winner?

[gwnn]

i think its wrong to bid on a balanced hand but it's not overly hard to construct 4♥= 4♠= layouts. still, i think it's very unlikely and pass is percentage

[Fluffy]

According to the LOTT there are 18 tricks. If they have ten, it hardly matters (-500 vs -590). If they have 9, of course I must pass (+100 vs -100 or -200). If they have 8, bidding is a big winner (+620 vs +300), but then p might make a slam try and we lose.

 

Then again, depending on LHO's preempt style there might be positive LOTT adjustments. OTOH p rates to have a big hand in which case he needs not have classic shape. I think it's close. I voted pass.

I though you needed to know aproximatelly how many trumps each saide had to know the number of total tricks. But here you don't even know if your side has a fit.

 

 

I play doubles at any level as take out, and I would just pass on this hand.

[keylime]

Pard's claiming to have some transferable values and I got a bunch of quacks. With a 5th spade then I consider taking a call - but here, I'm passing because pard has doubled under some duress potentially. That, and I have a really bad holding in hearts (2 of them, could be an instant ruff coming at trick 2).

[mikeh]

The 4 scenarios.

 

1. We make 4♠, they make 4♥.

 

2. We make 4♠ and they fail in 4♥.

 

3. We fail in 4♠, possibly doubled, and they make 4♥:

 

4. We fail in 4♠ and they fail in 4♥

 

Bidding 4♠ is right 3 out of 4 scenarios, but that really doesn't help us unless we can judge the relative likelihood of each. It seems clear to me that the 4th scenario, where passing is correct, is the most probable (I am assuming that even on a bad day, 4♠ won't go 800).

 

Is it more probable than the other 3 combined?

 

If the double were purely takeout, virtually assured to hold 4 spades, then the answer would be no, and we should bid. But most, over 4♥, would double with

AKx xx AJxx Axxx and consider this to be a very sound call, yet 4♠ is awful while 4♥ is going down on most layouts.

 

Making up hands for partner on these poorly defined auctions is a shortcut to insanity, but, having engaged for a moment in that exercise, I pass unhappily.

[jdonn]

Wow, third time I have seen someone mention taking out takeout Xs at the 4 level. It's the new fad.

We should give them a new name

[skjaeran]

I'll pass. Apologizing if wrong.

I'm passing to, but no apology - so would partner. :)

[pclayton]

Just pass. 4 tricks are easier than 11. Every time I make this call it seems like we nip them a trick.

[ArtK78]

Pass at IMPs. Want to go plus.

 

Chances of going plus at 4♥x have to be better than the chances of going plus in 4♠.

 

Perhaps someone can do a simulation for this hand opposite hands that merit a double of 4♥. Of course, the question of whether the double of 4♥ is purely takeout or just shows a good hand is relevant. In old-fashioned bridge, the double of 4♥ was still for takeout but much less so than a double of 3♥.

 

Normally, one goes to great lengths to avoid a double game swing at IMPs. But with the soft values in my hand combined with partner's good hand, it is hard to imagine that both 4♥ and a game our way will make.

 

Impossible? No. But unlikely. I expect to go plus in 4♥x.

[Halo]

4S

 

Partner expects me to bid 4S when possible. Needs to be at the four level because that's where he was when he doubled.

[han]

4S, who was it that said "take out your partner's take-out doubles"?

[pclayton]

4S, who was it that said "take out your partner's take-out doubles"?

It was Kaplan but he might pass this one.

[Guest Jlall]

4S, who was it that said "take out your partner's take-out doubles"?

It was Kaplan but he might pass this one.

lol. This thread is awesome.

[cherdano]

lol. This thread is awesome.

It's spelled awasome on BBF.

[skjaeran]

4S, who was it that said "take out your partner's take-out doubles"?

It was Kaplan but he might pass this one.

lol. This thread is awesome.

As the level increase, take-out doubles become more take and less out. :angry:

[neilkaz]

I may not even contribute a trick on defence..I have 4♠...I'll bid 4♠ here and without much thought to be honest.

 

I don't mind passing doubles at the 4 level, but not of 4♥ with 4 cards in ♠ and quacks that may be useful if we control the trump suit, but may just get ruffed away on defence.

 

4♠ .. neilkaz ..

[han]

4S, who was it that said "take out your partner's take-out doubles"?

It was Kaplan but he might pass this one.

lol. This thread is awesome.

As the level increase, take-out doubles become more take and less out. :)

Hopefully it was clear that I was teasing Justin.