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AT76 vs Q92


kgr

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Wow this one is quite complicated. I'll think about it some more but to start things off:

 

It seems straight forward that when we start with the queen if it goes low low king then it's better to next lead small to the ten picking up Jx onside but losing to J8xxx onside.

 

when we start with the queen and it's covered with the king it looks best to then lead small towards our 9. If this loses to the jack on our left we would then lead to the ten.

 

This looks good right?

 

However what if it goes queen small small small? If we then lead small to the ten we lose to Jx on our right. If we lead the 9 however we lose to Jx onside. Leading small to the 7 next is an interesting variation, however this loses to 8x on our right and LHO ducking twice. It seems that our plan is thus exploitable.

 

edit: ok I think I've solved it but I won't post the solution so that others have a chance.

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1 loser, or 3 tricks? I'll assume the latter.

 

First round, low to the Q. If it wins, I'm home as long as KJxx wasn't placed behind the ace.

 

If the Q loses, lead and run the 9 on the second round. Suppose the 9 is covered, J, A. Go back and lead the last one up, if they follow small....... I'll go by their count signals. I'll presume that the defender who didn't hold the K or J, will virtually always signal honest count with 54, 53, 43, or 8xx.

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if run the Q :

u make 17 from 32 posibilities 3 tricks

1 from 32 posibilities 4 tricks

FOR WEST: KJ8XXX,KJ8XX,KJ8,KJXXX,KJXX,KJX,K8XX,K8X,K8,KXXX,KXX,J8XXX,J8X,J8,JXXX,JXX,J(3 TRICKS) AND K8XXX(4 TRICKS)

 

 

if u run 6 to 9(if W win with J then run Q):

u make 19 from 32 posibilities 3 tricks

 

FOR WEST: --,x,xx,xxx,8,8x,8xx,8xxx,j8xxx,kxx,kxxx, k8x,k8xx,k8xxx,kjx,kjxxx,kj8, kj8xx,kj8xxx

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[hv=d=e&v=e&n=sak742hj3dkqtcq92&w=s63hkt96daj6cj843&e=s8hq754d875432ck5&s=sqjt95ha82d9cat76]399|300|Scoring: IMP

1S-6S[/hv]

West leads 6 which I won with Q and played a to the K; followed by A (East discarding 2).

Now I played a small to the Ace; followed by to 9 (finessing the J) and went -1.

How can I improve this play by simple thinking (I don't think I can work out all combinations at the table)?:

- Play one more before tackling 's? Maybe opps give me more info then, but I was afraid that I could need an entry back to Dummy.

- Was my play really very bad? I took a succesful finesse on J, but still coudn't make it?

- According to suitplay the best play is small to the 9.

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I think that making 6 is quite impossible. I'd feel lucky to not be down two.

 

edited: Why the hell did W not take the A? I missed that the first time I posted. With him ducking, and the non-heart lead, I guess that it's not being too greedy to try to make. I'd still think that I got away with something to only be down one.

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- Was my play really very bad? I took a succesful finesse on J, but still coudn't make it?

It was reasonable (I think, but others may think different), though I don't see the need of playing the A.

 

Why do you think it was bad? Did partner leave? If so, don't worry too much about it. He probably left because of his own bidding.

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How can I improve this play by simple thinking (I don't think I can work out all combinations at the table)?:

 

For suit combos, just know the common ones by heart, and know general principles like maintaining tenaces, when to hook vs. playing for drop, when restricted choice applies, basic safety plays, basic falsecards. Roudinesco's suit combination dictionary has a lot of "Roudi's rules" which are useful to know. For simpler combinations you can compare two lines by just thinking what specific lies of cards one gains on vs. which ones you lose. For complex ones like this, it's probably impossible for most people to calculate at table which is exactly best. But luckily, for combos like these, the difference between one reasonable line & another rarely is more than 2-3% or so; making a mistake on these sort of things is not the sort of thing that separates the winners & losers.

 

Even if you take suitplay's optimal line, you only get 2 club tricks and go down anyway.

 

The main thing on this board is to stay out of the horrible slam in the first place! Why is responder leaping to 6S? Why not start with a splinter, respect partner's signoff? Fixing this sort of bidding will get a lot more gain than taking 3 tricks on the suit combo 2% more often than your opponents.

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