Genuis or Lunacy?

[Finch]

[hv=d=n&v=e&n=saxxhxxxd97432cax&w=sxhak10xdkqj10cqxxx&e=sjxxhqjxxxd6ckxxx&s=skqxxxxhxda85cj109]399|300|Scoring: IMP

P P 1♠ x

2♠ 3♥ 4♠ x

all pass[/hv]

 

NS found the cheap save against the making 4H.

Declarer was Miguel Villas-Boas. The play went as follows:

 

King of diamonds lead, low, 6, 8 (concealing the 5)

Ace of hearts, King of hearts ruffed by declarer.

 

Rather than set up is club ruff in dummy, declarer now drew trumps, which meant he was going for 300 rather than 100.

 

He then cashed another couple of trumps, and West discarded a diamond.

 

+590

 

This scored up with +620 from 4H making in the other room for a huge swing.

 

Obviously West should have got this right (in the cold light of day it's not particularly difficult) but declarer saw the chance of a misdefence and was prepared to gamble 200 points for the chance of an additional 690...

[Trumpace]

What was the state of the match?

[awm]

Is it necessarily obvious that diamonds are 4-1? It seems like declarer's line:

 

(1) Wins huge when diamonds are 3-2. This is the difference between making and one down.

 

(2) Wins huge when LHO misdefends, unlikely but hey, it happened.

 

(3) Breaks even if LHO has both the ♣KQ since he cannot effectively attack the suit.

 

(4) Loses when diamonds are 4-1, at least one club honor is with RHO, and LHO pitches correctly.

 

Seems okay... after all, if the other table is in the same contract on opposite line, when diamonds are 4-1 this line loses 5 and when they are 3-2 it wins 12. So even if you think diamonds are probably 4-1, you need major odds against before you should go for the club ruff.

[y66]

Interesting that 2 of 2 vugraph commentators thought playing for down 1 was a given here.

 

Nice play Miguel!

 

BTW, where did West go wrong?

 

Does he have to clarify the diamond situation early, to avoid guessing later between guarding clubs or diamonds?

 

Can he infer that East has either CK or DA for his bid and, if DA, then A65, else he'd overtake DK and return D5? Therefore, East has A65 of diamonds or CK and a diamond holding (5 or 65) that prevents declarer from setting up the suit. So, continue with DT after cashing a top heart?

 

Lin file: http://bridgebase04.bridgebase.com:81/vug/...FINAL%203_3.lin

[Finch]

Interesting that 2 of 2 vugraph commentators thought playing for down 1 was a given here.

Yeah, the problem when you can see all 4 hands is that you don't always see what declarer is playing for.

 

Seems okay... after all, if the other table is in the same contract on opposite line, when diamonds are 4-1 this line loses 5 and when they are 3-2 it wins 12. So even if you think diamonds are probably 4-1, you need major odds against before you should go for the club ruff.

 

If you want to make with diamonds 3-2 without giving up on the club ruff, you should ruff the second heart, cross to the ace of spades and play a diamond up. If East started with a singleton diamond he is ruffing a loser and now can't stop the club ruff; if he discards you can change tacks; if he follows you draw trumps and claim. West can't possibly have a singleton diamond on the auction.

 

That seems like the genuine line to make.

 

 

BTW, where did West go wrong?

 

West is a better player than I, so I can't say for certain... but I think he got it into his head that partner had the DA. He knew fairly early on that declarer was 6-1 in the majors but he could have afforded some more heart discards before letting the diamond go. If declarer were 6-1-2-4 or 6-1-1-5 he would have been playing on clubs before drawing trumps, so he did actually know for certain that declarer must have length in diamonds. I imagine the duck at trick 1 was so smooth that it simply didn't occur to him that the actual layout was the case.