Pattern Combinations

[kenrexford]

I have been thinking through come pattern combinations, and the power of these. As an example, consider 4333 opposite 5431.

 

If the exact pattern is 4♠/3♥/3♦/3♣ opposite 5♠/4♥/3♦/1♣, then the trump fit will clearly be spades. One would expect that you would want to bid a slam if the combined honor assets include all three top spade honors, all three top heart honors, all three top diamond honors, and the top club honor, with any one of these allowed to be missing, possibly with a replacement of the Jack in that suit. The starting honor count is 31. The missing honor (Ace of clubs, Ace of another suit replaced by the Jack, etc.) is roughly equivalent to the value of the stiff and nine-fit by ordinary evaluation methods. All works out.

 

However, switch the exact pattern combination to 3♠/4♥/3♦/3♣ opposite 5♠/4♥/3♦/1♣. Now, the trump suit could be spades or hearts, with hearts offering more trick-taking capability. If, for example, the partnership has all three top honors in each major, plus the diamond Ace and King, and perhaps the Jack of spades, then 12 tricks is available in a heart contract (four hearts, five spades, two diamonds, and a ruff). The starting honor count is now 29, because the pattern advantage kills the need for the diamond Queen. The needed HCP's is about 26 instead of about 28.

 

How about 5431 opposite 3154? Now we are talking about roughly 27 as the starting value, 23 for the slam.

 

I'm wondering if anyone has already done the work to assess all of the specific high-frequency pattern combinations for trick-taking strength. Does anyone know?