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Strong hand over Preempt


kfay

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Usually on these sorts of problems I try to envision partner with a really nice suit and not much else and count my tricks. Obviously sometimes partner's suit is not so nice, and occasionally partner has an outside card (usually not both a really nice suit and an outside card), but this method has gotten me good results in general.

 

On this hand that gives partner something like AQJxxxx and out. That's seven spade tricks and the diamond ace. The diamond king is extremely likely to be offside, so I would expect to lose a minimum of four tricks (three round suit cards plus a diamond king) before getting to run the diamonds. On a bad day partner is 7222 or 7123 and we might end up losing five tricks. And occasionally partner's suit is not so hot (say AJTxxxx) and we lose a trump trick.

 

I would pass and feel lucky if 3 makes. :)

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