Garbage or not?

[SchTsch]

This is imps, so you don't have to play the best part score. Finding a playable one is good enough, and guess what: we just found one :)

I know it's imps.

And I still bid 2♣ :blink:

Don't like the idea of going down in 1NT when we have a 4-4 major fit and I'm willing to risk 2M one off in 4-3 fit against 1NT +1 on a bad day to prevent it.

I think that risk is not big and gain could be significant.

But, that's my perception, I guess it is a close call.

[Free]

Just popped in my head: doesn't your partner ever open 1NT on 2-2-4-5, 2-2-5-4, 2-2-6-3 or 2-2-3-6 hands? :blink: :)

[SchTsch]

sure, but then it is his problem :)

[SoTired]

Just popped in my head: doesn't your partner ever open 1NT on 2-2-4-5, 2-2-5-4, 2-2-6-3 or 2-2-3-6 hands? :blink: :)

My partner would never open 1N with 2-2 in the majors for this (and other) reasons.

[jdonn]

Just popped in my head: doesn't your partner ever open 1NT on 2-2-4-5, 2-2-5-4, 2-2-6-3 or 2-2-3-6 hands? :P :lol:

Does yours ever open 1NT with a 5 card major?

[Guest Jlall]

I just don't understand how people can feel strongly about this one. "clear pass" or "clear stayman", list some shapes where pard is 2-2, list some hands where pard has 5 spades and xxx diamonds, whatever.

 

Obviously when you hit a 4 card major with pard (or more) you will be in a much better contract. When you don't the 4-3 will usually be inferior, but not always, and the 4-2 will be a disaster.

 

The only point I would make is that you have added equity in passing from the times they balance. Overall I would expect the bids to come out very close in long term expectation.

[kenrexford]

Here's one issue for me.

 

1NT-P-2♣-2♦-

2♥-3♦-???

 

When there is a possible start that suggests game, how can I pass this thing? Is that not a secondary reason to play Garbage Stayman?

 

In a heart contract, my dummy is worth 8 points or so. Partner can have five hearts, and he can have nothing wasted in diamonds. Wouldn't ♠Ax ♥AJxxx ♦xxx ♣AKx be nice?

 

How about a spade contract, even? ♠AKxxx ♥Ax ♦xxx ♣Axx?

 

How about 1NT-P-2♣-3♦-3M?

[Guest Jlall]

In a heart contract, my dummy is worth 8 points or so. Partner can have five hearts, and he can have nothing wasted in diamonds. Wouldn't ♠Ax ♥AJxxx ♦xxx ♣AKx be nice?

wow, this is a perfect empathetic splinter over the 3H bid!

[pclayton]

I just don't understand how people can feel strongly about this one. "clear pass" or "clear stayman", list some shapes where pard is 2-2, list some hands where pard has 5 spades and xxx diamonds, whatever.

 

Obviously when you hit a 4 card major with pard (or more) you will be in a much better contract. When you don't the 4-3 will usually be inferior, but not always, and the 4-2 will be a disaster.

 

The only point I would make is that you have added equity in passing from the times they balance. Overall I would expect the bids to come out very close in long term expectation.

I posted this because one of my regulars passed this. I struggled in 1N and didn't have a chance. Its curious that the votes are currently 15-15, but I'll bet you a few of the pass votes don't understand garbage stayman. If your experience says passing is best, I'll respect your opinion, although it doesn't change mine.

 

I really don't think this is close with a 4 by 1. At IMPs, we are trying to get to a plus position. The only time passing is best is when we make seven tricks in NT and we don't make 8 tricks in a major. This seems like a very narrow target to me. OTOH, its very easy to see how 1N is hopeless and we are making beaucoup tricks in a major.

[Guest Jlall]

I just don't understand how people can feel strongly about this one. "clear pass" or "clear stayman", list some shapes where pard is 2-2, list some hands where pard has 5 spades and xxx diamonds, whatever.

 

Obviously when you hit a 4 card major with pard (or more) you will be in a much better contract. When you don't the 4-3 will usually be inferior, but not always, and the 4-2 will be a disaster.

 

The only point I would make is that you have added equity in passing from the times they balance. Overall I would expect the bids to come out very close in long term expectation.

I posted this because one of my regulars passed this. I struggled in 1N and didn't have a chance.

Yes, I know I was kibitzing and told aaron it was fine to pass remember? lol.

 

I dont understand how going down in 2 of a major when you make at least 1N is a more narrow target than going down in 1N when you make at least 2 of a major. It is the same, you just have to figure out which is more likely.

[han]

I agree that it is close. If I had 4-4-2-3 shape then I would certainly pass. With 4-4-1-4 I'd expect that the odds slightly favor bidding but one would really need to do a simulation to get a better idea.

[pclayton]

I just don't understand how people can feel strongly about this one. "clear pass" or "clear stayman", list some shapes where pard is 2-2, list some hands where pard has 5 spades and xxx diamonds, whatever.

 

Obviously when you hit a 4 card major with pard (or more) you will be in a much better contract. When you don't the 4-3 will usually be inferior, but not always, and the 4-2 will be a disaster.

 

The only point I would make is that you have added equity in passing from the times they balance. Overall I would expect the bids to come out very close in long term expectation.

I posted this because one of my regulars passed this. I struggled in 1N and didn't have a chance.

Yes, I know I was kibitzing and told aaron it was fine to pass remember? lol.

 

I dont understand how going down in 2 of a major when you make at least 1N is a more narrow target than going down in 1N when you make at least 2 of a major. It is the same, you just have to figure out which is more likely.

No I don't remember, since I clubbed a certain handle with a name eerily similar to mine, since it was distracting me. :)

 

I dont understand how going down in 2 of a major when you make at least 1N is a more narrow target than going down in 1N when you make at least 2 of a major. It is the same, you just have to figure out which is more likely.

 

If you would have reiterated your thought about the propensity of the opponents to balance over 2 maj, I'd have more respect for a pass, since thats where many of your gains will come from. I just can't see how you can say that the frequency of 1N v 2 major being superior is on par with to 2 maj vs 1N. I just don't think its close.

[cherdano]

This would be a good hand for a simulation with GIB-playout (not double dummy analysis).

[kenrexford]

In a heart contract, my dummy is worth 8 points or so.  Partner can have five hearts, and he can have nothing wasted in diamonds.  Wouldn't ♠Ax ♥AJxxx ♦xxx ♣AKx be nice?

wow, this is a perfect empathetic splinter over the 3H bid!

Not exactly enough. Close though. The E.P. promises five of seven critical cards, and Opener only has four. :)

[han]

This would be a good hand for a simulation with GIB-playout (not double dummy analysis).

I think we need a regular forum poster to become an expert in such analyses. I vote for A. Bayer.

 

edit: I think that a double dummy analysis would already be interesting.

[SoTired]

I did a little analysis from 150,000 hands I have and 58% of the 1N openers have a 4-card major. The data does not include opening 1N on semi-balanced hands. I have about 4.1% of all hands open 1N.

 

In cross analyzing between actual results and dbl-dummy results, I have previously found that studies like this achieve similar results either way, with the dbl-dummy results slightly better for the defense than actual results.

[han]

I did a little analysis from 150,000 hands I have and 58% of the 1N openers have a 4-card major. The data does not include opening 1N on semi-balanced hands. I have about 4.1% of all hands open 1N.

 

In cross analyzing between actual results and dbl-dummy results, I have previously found that studies like this achieve similar results either way, with the dbl-dummy results slightly better for the defense than actual results.

You should take into account that we are 4-4 in the majors. This decreases the chance that partner has a 4-card major. I thought it was slightly below 50% but I doubt that this factor changes the odds by more than 8%.

[cherdano]

A primitive simulation (doesn't allow for 5422, 6m322 shapes with opener, upgrades etc.) says a 15-17 1N opener has a 4-card major opposite THIS hand 50.5% of the time.

 

Arg, just noticed that the "balanced" function of Deal excludes 5-card majors. Allowing 5-card majors, the likelyhood of a fit is 56.1%.

Edited September 3, 2007 by cherdano

[TheoKole]

I would definetely bid 2 ♣ with regular partnership. We play full Garbage Stay. with short ♣, ♦ or ♥ over 1NT and short ♣ over 2NT.

 

After a 2 ♦ answer to Stay. I would bid 2 ♥, which is weak with better or equal ♥'s and ♠'s and short ♦.

 

If partner is 3,2,3,5 distribution, he will correct to 3 ♣.

 

Theo