kenrexford Posted August 31, 2007 Report Share Posted August 31, 2007 [hv=d=s&v=n&n=sk1098xxxhjxxxdxcx&s=saxhak9xdxxcakxxx]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv] You end up declarer in 4♥ in the South. The contract was inferior, but the one I had to declare anyway. I suspected at a critical point that I should take a certain type of line, but I decided against that and did not analyze the play along that line any further, embarking instead upon a losing line. I'm curious if anyone thinks that this should make, or at least be attempted, along the line I considered. The lead was the diamond King, won by LHO. LHO then continued with the diamond Queen. To you... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted August 31, 2007 Report Share Posted August 31, 2007 There seems to be one obvious line, which I assume is the losing one... Ace of clubs, club ruff, spade to the ace, club ruff, AK of hearts. Ostensibly just needs clubs 4-3, hearts not 5-0, spades not 4-0. And it might recover from 5-2 clubs depending on what happens next and what trump holding they ruff and who ruffs. It also might recover from 4-0 spades if they ruff with a trump trick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted August 31, 2007 Report Share Posted August 31, 2007 There seems to be one obvious line, which I assume is the losing one... Ace of clubs, club ruff, spade to the ace, club ruff, AK of hearts. Ostensibly just needs clubs 4-3, hearts not 5-0, spades not 4-0. And it might recover from 5-2 clubs depending on what happens next and what trump holding they ruff and who ruffs. It also might recover from 4-0 spades if they ruff with a trump trick. exactly my thoughts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted August 31, 2007 Report Share Posted August 31, 2007 There seems to be one obvious line, which I assume is the losing one... Ace of clubs, club ruff, spade to the ace, club ruff, AK of hearts. Ostensibly just needs clubs 4-3, hearts not 5-0, spades not 4-0. And it might recover from 5-2 clubs depending on what happens next and what trump holding they ruff and who ruffs. It also might recover from 4-0 spades if they ruff with a trump trick. exactly my thoughts and mine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keylime Posted August 31, 2007 Report Share Posted August 31, 2007 ditto. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skjaeran Posted August 31, 2007 Report Share Posted August 31, 2007 There seems to be one obvious line, which I assume is the losing one... Ace of clubs, club ruff, spade to the ace, club ruff, AK of hearts. Ostensibly just needs clubs 4-3, hearts not 5-0, spades not 4-0. And it might recover from 5-2 clubs depending on what happens next and what trump holding they ruff and who ruffs. It also might recover from 4-0 spades if they ruff with a trump trick. Hard to see another line coming closer than half as good as this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTired Posted September 2, 2007 Report Share Posted September 2, 2007 There seems to be one obvious line, which I assume is the losing one... Ace of clubs, club ruff, spade to the ace, club ruff, AK of hearts. Ostensibly just needs clubs 4-3, hearts not 5-0, spades not 4-0. And it might recover from 5-2 clubs depending on what happens next and what trump holding they ruff and who ruffs. It also might recover from 4-0 spades if they ruff with a trump trick. I think slightly better is ♣AK, ♥A, ruff club, ♥K, ruff 2nd club. I believe that gives you more chances to make if clubs are 5-2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted September 2, 2007 Report Share Posted September 2, 2007 I don't know how bad it is in comparison, but a "playable" line is to concede the second round of diamonds, pitching a spade, so that third round would accept the force in hand. Then cash Ace of Hearts (perhaps AK, if Kirby rule does not apply) and maybe set about the Spade suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted September 2, 2007 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2007 Well, here's the rub that I have not yet seen analyzed. This is MP, right? It seems that the par contract should be 4♠, because of the Swan hand as Responder. So, assuming that alternative contract of 4♠, and the inferences available from the lead, is there an alternative line that provide the same trick expectation in 4♥ as in 4♠? Or, does the set-up-clubs line provide the same trick expectation as 4♠? Or, is there a line that seems mathematically most likely to cater to the same trick expectation as 4♠? Does this factor matter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skjaeran Posted September 2, 2007 Report Share Posted September 2, 2007 Well, here's the rub that I have not yet seen analyzed. This is MP, right? It seems that the par contract should be 4♠, because of the Swan hand as Responder. So, assuming that alternative contract of 4♠, and the inferences available from the lead, is there an alternative line that provide the same trick expectation in 4♥ as in 4♠? Or, does the set-up-clubs line provide the same trick expectation as 4♠? Or, is there a line that seems mathematically most likely to cater to the same trick expectation as 4♠? Does this factor matter? If there's no trump loser and clubs are 4-3 you'll often make 12 tricks in a spade contract. If one but not the other black suit is favourable you'll often make 11 tricks. The only way to counter that, I think, is to play for Qx in trumps in 4♥. That means cashing ♥AK dropping the queen, then ♠AK and ruff if needed, trump to jack and claim 11 tricks. You can never match 12 tricks if that's the outcome in a ♠ contract. I believe the Frances proposed line is better - play as safely as you can for ten tricks, get 11 part of the time and hope you match the normal result playing in spades. I don't think you need to go 'all in' for making five here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted September 2, 2007 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2007 Well, here's the rub that I have not yet seen analyzed. This is MP, right? It seems that the par contract should be 4♠, because of the Swan hand as Responder. So, assuming that alternative contract of 4♠, and the inferences available from the lead, is there an alternative line that provide the same trick expectation in 4♥ as in 4♠? Or, does the set-up-clubs line provide the same trick expectation as 4♠? Or, is there a line that seems mathematically most likely to cater to the same trick expectation as 4♠? Does this factor matter? If there's no trump loser and clubs are 4-3 you'll often make 12 tricks in a spade contract. If one but not the other black suit is favourable you'll often make 11 tricks. The only way to counter that, I think, is to play for Qx in trumps in 4♥. That means cashing ♥AK dropping the queen, then ♠AK and ruff if needed, trump to jack and claim 11 tricks. You can never match 12 tricks if that's the outcome in a ♠ contract. I believe the Frances proposed line is better - play as safely as you can for ten tricks, get 11 part of the time and hope you match the normal result playing in spades. I don't think you need to go 'all in' for making five here. That's the line I took, for the most part. I won the second diamond on dummy and then spade to the Ace, dropping Jack to my left. After two top hearts, I found out about a 4-1 split. I managed to win the second diamond on dummy (1), the spade Ace (2), the heart A-K (4), the spade K as a gift (5), the club A-K (7), the heart Jack en passant (8), and then to throw RHO in with the last spade, forced to lead a diamond (9) for down one. Poor result, of course. However, 5♠ did make. At MP, down one was as bad in the scoring as just making four. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.