Brighton Slams I

[Finch]

We'd have found the weekend easier if our slam bidding had been better. Here's the first (some of the ones I'm going to post we got right, by the way....)

 

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=shakq105d105caq10952]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♦ 2♠ 3♣ 4♠

5♣ P ?[/hv]

 

A few system inferences:

 

1♦ = strong NT, 5CM, 5542 style: 1D promises 4+ diamonds, open 1D with 4-4 in the minors.

3♣ = natural game force

 

Over 4♠ partner's other options included:

Double (penalties)

Pass (forcing)

4NT (good 5-of-a-minor bid)

 

So partner has suggested a minimum hand with club support.

 

Your possible calls now include 5♠ 'grand slam force' asking partner to bid 6♣ with no top club honour and 5NT with one of the top three. 5NT is used as a spade cue bid.

[awm]

I'd try 5♥. It seems clear that we need to try since grand slam is good opposite as little as ♦AK plus the ♣K from partner. Of the possible grand slam tries, it seems like:

 

5♠ will find out about the club king, but it's pretty likely that we have a diamond loser if partner doesn't have ♦AK. Ideally for grand slam we'd like all of the cards named above, but if I had to do without one of them I'd rather be off the club king (grand probably on finesse) than off the diamond king! Asking for the club king specifically probably isn't the best way to proceed.

 

5NT as a spade cue is probably going to get partner bidding 6♣, because partner is probably looking at three small hearts (okay maybe two small hearts). It's hard to bid slam with a suit wide open when partner had the opportunity to cue that suit and bypassed it.

 

Hopefully over 5♥ we will hear:

 

(1) 5♠, a spade cuebid. This is bad news and I'll try 6♣ next. With two diamond controls and a top trump honor partner will know to bid on (say Axx xx AKxx Kxxx).

 

(2) 5NT, hopefully showing a good hand for slam without a spade cuebid. This is an easy 7♣ bid I think.

 

(3) 6♣, discouraging. Could be something like Kx xxx AJxx KJxx. or various other hands with wastage in spades. I pass.

[mr1303]

I'll go with 5H

Presumably this must be a grand slam try, since if I was only interested in 6 I'd just bid it?

 

However I don't expect partner to do anything encouraging on this auction.

[Echognome]

It's going to be very difficult to get everything across. I am going to go with 5NT as the spade cue. I know partner is looking at a couple of spades and is going to be worried about them. I don't reasonably expect to get to grand without punting and don't feel the need to do so. But if partner holds no spade wastage, it's just remotely possible we can get there. Over 5♥, I can't imagine my partner doing anything but bidding 6♣.

[cherdano]

It's going to be very difficult to get everything across. I am going to go with 5NT as the spade cue. I know partner is looking at a couple of spades and is going to be worried about them. I don't reasonably expect to get to grand without punting and don't feel the need to do so. But if partner holds no spade wastage, it's just remotely possible we can get there. Over 5♥, I can't imagine my partner doing anything but bidding 6♣.

If partner has xxx of spades he may very well hope we a spade void, after all we are trying for slam but can't cue 5♦ and are missing a trump honor. I think he will be much more worried about ♥xx opposite a 5N cue than about ♠xx opposite a 5H cue (in particular since he can bid 5N denying a spade control.)

 

Anyway, I agree with all of Adam's post.

[Echognome]

I don't see why 5NT should deny a spade cue after a 5♥ bid. It's certainly not standard in any way.

[cherdano]

I don't see why 5NT should deny a spade cue after a 5♥ bid. It's certainly not standard in any way.

I think it would be standard that you cue 5S with a 1st round control there. I would also think that 5N is last train on this auction not GSF, but that's of course a matter of agreements.

[Echognome]

I don't see why 5NT should deny a spade cue after a 5♥ bid.  It's certainly not standard in any way.

I think it would be standard that you cue 5S with a 1st round control there. I would also think that 5N is last train on this auction not GSF, but that's of course a matter of agreements.

Sure. I can agree that 5♠ *shows* a cue. But the last train bit, I'm not so sure about. It seems odd to have no way to ask for trump quality. The actual agreement is, of course, up to the partnership.

 

I think it's obviously a problem hand as you yourself cannot show everything. It's just a matter of catering to a possible grand if partner has the right cards. I'm not even sure it can be done with any confidence.

[han]

I agree with 5H. If partner bids 5NT (should be a good hand without spade ace I think) then we can bid 7C. Over 6C we have a tough call, is partner bidding that because (s)he doesn't have a spade cue or because (s)he has a bad hand? Over 5S I'd bid 6C.

[Guest Jlall]

F it I'd just bid 7C

 

edit: OK read your definition of 5S, nice, I would bid that then (might as well), planning to go to 7

[mikeh]

put me down for 5♥

[jdonn]

F it I'd just bid 7C

 

edit: OK read your definition of 5S, nice, I would bid that then (might as well), planning to go to 7

I totally agree with this. There is a 0% chance of partner ever bidding a grand no matter what we do, it is up to us.

[Cascade]

F it I'd just bid 7C

 

edit: OK read your definition of 5S, nice, I would bid that then  (might as well), planning to go to 7

I totally agree with this. There is a 0% chance of partner ever bidding a grand no matter what we do, it is up to us.

But we have a whole level to gather some more useful information.

 

I don't think the grand is odds on on this auction or even if it is there are hands with significant probability that partner could have that would not make a grand playable e.g. if he is off the ♦A. We also have problems in clubs and hearts.

 

In isolation the clubs are a good bet to be solid - partner has the King or it is finessable. This is probably somewhere in the 80-90% range.

 

The diamonds are far less certain. I think there are many minimums where partner would be under pressure to show club support given our forcing 3♣ bid. These could easily be missing the ace or king of diamonds. I am guessing but partner will probably have the ace around 60-70% of the time and the king a little less say 55-60%. Of course when he is missing the king he might have the queen and the king might be finessable. All in all this is probably only around 50%.

 

The hearts are also a problem. If partner has four (or more) clubs then we are probably ok in hearts but if he has only three clubs then we might not be able to ruff the hearts up before drawing trumps. This is probably a much less serious problem than the other two probably somewhere between 90-99% that the hearts will come in.

 

Overall I reckon this means that we are below 50% for 7♣ but even if it is above I don't think that it is great. Therefore it must be much better to try and elicit some extra information.

[jdonn]

F it I'd just bid 7C

 

edit: OK read your definition of 5S, nice, I would bid that then  (might as well), planning to go to 7

I totally agree with this. There is a 0% chance of partner ever bidding a grand no matter what we do, it is up to us.

But we have a whole level to gather some more useful information.

...

Overall I reckon this means that we are below 50% for 7♣ but even if it is above I don't think that it is great. Therefore it must be much better to try and elicit some extra information.

Although disagreeing strongly with some of your estimates, I won't argue since my opinion is already expressed. I am merely replying to note that we are not getting to 7 off the club king in the problem situation due to the definition of the 5♠ bid, so at least that part you shouldn't worry about or include in your estimation.

[Fluffy]

I agree with justin and josh, the only thing I can investigate here is the ♣K, so I will do it.

 

There is no way to force partner to tell me if he has ♦A or not.

[Halo]

5S

 

Ask partner to look at where his values are. Partner may not have the Ace of diamonds.

[Fluffy]

5S

 

Ask partner to look at where his values are. Partner may not have the Ace of diamonds.

I think you mean 5NT, not 5♠ :)

[Blofeld]

(I'm a 5♥ bidder, but my reasons have been given above. I'm also an optimistic 5♥ bidder and prepared to raise 6♣ to 7, just signing off over 5♠)

[skjaeran]

5♥.

Agree with Adam's post.

[Cascade]

F it I'd just bid 7C

 

edit: OK read your definition of 5S, nice, I would bid that then  (might as well), planning to go to 7

I totally agree with this. There is a 0% chance of partner ever bidding a grand no matter what we do, it is up to us.

But we have a whole level to gather some more useful information.

...

Overall I reckon this means that we are below 50% for 7♣ but even if it is above I don't think that it is great. Therefore it must be much better to try and elicit some extra information.

Although disagreeing strongly with some of your estimates, I won't argue since my opinion is already expressed. I am merely replying to note that we are not getting to 7 off the club king in the problem situation due to the definition of the 5♠ bid, so at least that part you shouldn't worry about or include in your estimation.

Whoops I didn't read the bit about the 5♠ bid. I just saw the "F it I'd just bid 7C".

 

I'd be interested to know where you differ from my estimates.

 

I might do some simulations to see what happens. Of course it will depend heavily on what hands you expect partner to bid 5♣. For me I would bid 5♣ on almost any hand with club support except hands that are well fixed in spades.

[Gerben42]

I will bid 5NT. Since we're grand slamming we must have some good cards in ♥ too.

[Free]

I find 5♥ really appaling. Whatever partner bids, you'll get a ♦ lead and might have to guess! I'd just blast to 7♣...

[Cascade]

F it I'd just bid 7C

 

edit: OK read your definition of 5S, nice, I would bid that then  (might as well), planning to go to 7

I totally agree with this. There is a 0% chance of partner ever bidding a grand no matter what we do, it is up to us.

But we have a whole level to gather some more useful information.

...

Overall I reckon this means that we are below 50% for 7♣ but even if it is above I don't think that it is great. Therefore it must be much better to try and elicit some extra information.

Although disagreeing strongly with some of your estimates, I won't argue since my opinion is already expressed. I am merely replying to note that we are not getting to 7 off the club king in the problem situation due to the definition of the 5♠ bid, so at least that part you shouldn't worry about or include in your estimation.

Whoops I didn't read the bit about the 5♠ bid. I just saw the "F it I'd just bid 7C".

 

I'd be interested to know where you differ from my estimates.

 

I might do some simulations to see what happens. Of course it will depend heavily on what hands you expect partner to bid 5♣. For me I would bid 5♣ on almost any hand with club support except hands that are well fixed in spades.

I did a simulation of 100000 hands with a minimum opening with diamonds and club support and the opponents bidding and raising spades. The numbers came out as follows:

 

♦ A 72.3%

 

♦ K 60.5%

 

♣ K 68.2%

 

♦ A K 39.4%

 

♦ A Q 18.4%

 

The real numbers will be slightly higher I think since I did not eliminate hands where partner had great spades and might double.

 

I also did a smaller simulation which counted the times that there were 13 tricks double dummy. The results were:

 

<11 tricks 1.9%

11 tricks 14%

12 tricks 35%

13 tricks 49.1%

 

I repeated this last simulation guaranteeing that partner had the ♣K

 

<11 tricks 0.2%

11 tricks 14.6%

12 tricks 31.5%

13 tricks 53.7%

[jdonn]

Can I find out your parameters? In particular I think partner will almost always make a forcing pass instead of raising with 3 clubs. On the actual hand he held four clubs and still (IMO) had a really obvious forcing pass.

[Cascade]

Can I find out your parameters? In particular I think partner will almost always make a forcing pass instead of raising with 3 clubs. On the actual hand he held four clubs and still (IMO) had a really obvious forcing pass.

Pretty much exactly what I wrote:

 

Any minimum 1♦ opening 11-15 hcp with at least three clubs.

 

I'd be happy to rerun the numbers with four or more clubs.